The Mantle of Expectations

by mlcotcher on Jun 1, 2025 4:51 PM CDT in Texas Longhorns and Other Baseball

The Texas Longhorn baseball team is set to host a Regional from Friday through Monday. I keep expecting to get excited for this weekend’s games and the opportunity they present, but this weekend’s foes have me feeling meh about the Regional.

Sun Tzu is credited with saying, "It is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." I trust that Augie Garrido knows his own club, so my focus here is to get to know the enemies coming to town for the Austin Regional.

I took one look and it became apparent to me that the other way to win 100 battles is to be the No. 1 seed in Austin this weekend.

Baseball superstitions are legendary, so I may have just jinxed the team. I just can’t see any way that Texas is threatened this weekend short of the self-inflicted type. If things go poorly, then somebody better start sharpening a katana. Seppuku, imo.

No. 2 seed: Texas State Bobcats
Team ERA: 3.82
Team Batting: .298
Runs per game: 6.93
Notable wins: Texas State went 1-10 in games against A&M, Arkansas, Baylor, Missouri, Texas, Tech, Rice & TCU.
Notable losses: The Bobcats only lost 21 games on the season and 10 of them were to the list above. I’ll forgive the loss to Missouri State in the second game of the season and call a 24-9 Southland conference record "respectable".
How they can beat Texas: The Bobcats are familiar with the Horns and the venue. They will not be intimidated. They also have extra-incentive to burn "big brother". They’re like the Aggies without the talent and resources. Sum it up as want-to.
Why they won’t beat Texas: The Bobcats are an unimpressive 12-12 away from home. If you’re still unconvinced, their opponent’s ERA is over 6.00. That tells you what you need to know about the level of competition they faced.

The Longhorns already beat them twice and struck out over 20 Texas State batters along the way…and they haven’t faced Jungmann yet.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlAVqBzBJdQ&feature;=youtu.be

Want-to in moving pictures.

No. 3 seed: Kent State Golden Flashes
Team ERA: 2.56
Team Batting: .296
Runs per game: 6.15
Notable wins: The Golden Flashes tallied wins at Georgia Tech, Coastal Carolina and Houston.
Notable losses: Kent State only lost 5 MAC games and most of them were Sundays when they already had a series win. The exception is a series loss at Central Michigan (31-27).
How they can beat Texas: I actually think Kent State is marginally better than Texas State. Both teams need to throw their ace on Friday, so the Golden Flash’s best hope is to win that one and saddle up on emotion in hopes that Andrew Chafin can pitch again on Monday.
Why they won’t beat Texas: Kent State is 7-20 all-time in NCAA tourney games and this is their first-ever No. 3 seed in a Regional. Yeah, you read that correctly.

No. 4 seed: Princeton Tigers
Team ERA: 4.87
Team Batting: .276
Runs per game: 5.13
Notable wins: Princeton went 2-4 against teams that made the field of 64. They beat Navy and Seton Hall.
Notable losses: The Tigers started the year 3-13 and finished one game over .500.
How they can beat Texas: They’re starting a Texan, Zak Hermans, on Friday evening. Kid is from Coppell and was All-State good in high school. If he can handle the pressure, Hermans is capable of striking out 4 or 5 batters and lasting six innings. Tigers would have to hold on from there.
Why they won’t beat Texas: Princeton was the first team to qualify for postseason play when they beat Dartmouth in the Ivy League’s postseason. Now they get a nice Summer vacay to Austin. They’re 3-19 all-time in postseason play. If it’s not 3-21 by Saturday, something is wrong.

History is full of underdog stories where individuals and teams have overcome seemingly insurmountable odds. A few more will be added to the list during Regional play around the country this weekend. Don’t expect Austin to join in the fun.

Enjoy the baseball and hope that these three teams serve as the springboard Garrido has been looking for all season.

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Comments

You are THE MAN on the ping, baby. Great post. I’d love to hear you and Augie after a few pops dissecting The Art of War (although I suspect his penchant for the sacrifice bunt might run headling into some of its tenets). I’m going to try and make a game or two with the kiddo — it will give us something to do besides sitting around waiting for Neftali Feliz to fuck up another quality start.

by W.W. McClyde on Jun 1, 2025 5:12 PM CDT reply actions

You rang?

It’s nice to get a favorable draw in this thing. Seems like we have had our share of unfavorable draws in the past, last year being one. That said, I thought being sent to FSU and Ole Miss was BS and that turned out OK.

Hook ’em.

by jinx on Jun 2, 2025 7:41 AM CDT reply actions

I appreciate the detailed write up. Thanks for putting it together.

My biggest concern is the players having the same “meh” attitude about the regional. That’s what got them a loss to start the Big 12 Tournament and has gotten them losses on Sundays instead of series sweeps. I’m confident that Augie will provide the necessary pep talk and push the right buttons, but will the team respond? Anything less than a blowout win (6+ runs/10+ hits for, 2- runs against) against Princeton will be interpretted by me as a “No”. If they can come out ready to play in game 1, then I think the rest of the regional will be the cake-walk we are expecting.

by TexasWright on Jun 2, 2025 8:48 AM CDT reply actions

TW - The players’ attitude & mindset undoubtedly ranks as my top concern of the weekend.

One of the interesting pieces of the weekend will be to see what happens if Texas gets a 4-1 lead. The game may not be as close as the score indicates and our batting order can get lazy when the guys are dominating on the bump.

by Matt Cotcher on Jun 2, 2025 10:51 AM CDT reply actions

Hard not to argue that we drew the most favorable regional in college baseball.

That said, West Point took us to extra innings, right? Baseball is a cruel mistress.

Like TexasWright, I’m hoping for the opportunity for our offense to knock some covers off of the ball so they can build some confidence as we head into tougher competition.

by Scipio Tex on Jun 2, 2025 2:10 PM CDT reply actions

…And in case you all forgot, we dropped a game to Brown, who went 13-29 (9-11 in Ivy league play) and 0-2 against Princeton. This team has been humbled plenty this year. They’ll come out ready to play.

by texasengr on Jun 2, 2025 4:55 PM CDT reply actions

For those interested, Kent State started Kyle Hallock today and not Andrew Chafin. That is a major gamble, but could pay huge dividends if Hallock can beat TSU.

Chafin is a Big 12-caliber pitcher, so we should be rooting for the Bobcats, imo.

Kent State leads 1-0 after 4 complete.

by Matt Cotcher on Jun 3, 2025 1:50 PM CDT reply actions

Texas State tied it up in the B8th with a run to make it 2-2. They’re headed for extra innings.

by Matt Cotcher on Jun 3, 2025 3:16 PM CDT reply actions

Kent State wins 4-2.

by Scipio Tex on Jun 3, 2025 4:11 PM CDT reply actions

Chafin was a first round pick in one mock I saw this past week. Unfortunately our hitting isn’t letting me look past tonight.

by dick on Jun 3, 2025 4:27 PM CDT reply actions

Chafin is very capable of dominating the Texas lineup if they let him. It’s going to be critical to extend at bats early and not let him find a groove. I don’t expect him to give up a ton of runs, the game is whether the Horns make him work along the way.

by Matt Cotcher on Jun 3, 2025 4:39 PM CDT reply actions

Who are we starting tonight

by Texastough on Jun 3, 2025 4:53 PM CDT reply actions

Garrido has said all week that Stafford will go tonight. I don’t expect that to change based on the early result.

by Matt Cotcher on Jun 3, 2025 5:09 PM CDT reply actions

Kent State’s Head Coach (Scott Stricklin) was asked about playing Texas after they won:

“We’re in great shape. Everyone assumes we’re playing Texas. Princeton is a good team but I think we are prepared to play Texas. We have a great guy going on the mound tomorrow. (Texas Pitcher) Taylor Jungman is really good. Carson Smith is going to be a top three or four round draft pick and I think Taylor (Jungman) is going to be in the first round. From what I understand, he has had some success here at home. If he’s on the mound, we expect it to be a lot like today. We know how Texas likes to play. There are going to try and win 1-0.”

by Matt Cotcher on Jun 3, 2025 5:27 PM CDT reply actions

With only 1 game still being played, No. 1 seeds only lost twice today. But, No. 2’s were just 5-11against No. 3’s. Shaping up to be an exciting weekend.

Big 12 went 3-3 today.

by Matt Cotcher on Jun 3, 2025 11:35 PM CDT reply actions