Degenerates Unite - Week One NFL Gambling Chat

This one is interesting – a lot of moving parts in terms of player availability. For New York, they may have just one healthy and experienced corner in this game in Corey Webster as both Terrell Thomas and Prince Amukamara are likely out. Since Romo tends to light up this secondary at (nominal) full strength, he could get a lot done through the air. New York is also hurting on the interior of the DL with Chris Canty and Marvin Austin out for this game. It looks like Hakeem Nicks will be back at relatively full strength, and the rest of the offense should be good to go.

On the Cowboys’ side, the smart money is on Witten missing this game. Miles Austin should be healthy. His hamstrings have officially entered the Donte Stallworth Piano Wire Zone in my book, but he should at least start healthy if potentially out of sync with Romo. For what it’s worth, Phil Costa should be healthy at C although David Arkin has looked just as good as Costa (which is not to say good) in the preseason.

I think there’s some value on the Cowboys +4 given New York’s injuries on defense, but I think the same injuries and the youth/re-jugglement of the Dallas secondary make me like the over a bit more. I’m not exactly sprinting to the betting window on either of those, however.

I like the Bills to win this game outright. Their rebuilt DL looks like it’s the truth, and they’re facing a Jets’ offense that may not be able to get out of its own way with either Sanchez or Tebow at the controls. This line has been falling like a stone from NYJ -6 a few weeks ago as the Jets offense has looked like hot doo-doo in every pre-season contest. I don’t think they get well against Buffalo, and a sauced-up crowd will be more than happy to turn on them if they’re jogging up the tunnel at halftime having put 3 points on the board.

The Jets’ D should be pretty salty, so I don’t think Buffalo runs wild by any stretch. However, the Bills’ run game is strong enough to keep them from getting too far behind the chains, and Fitzpatrick has looked much better than he did after last season’s rib injury. I think the under could be attractive here as both teams will have more success on the ground than in the air and both will be looking to keep it convervative and not make the game-clinching mistake, but my favorite play here is the Bills money line at +135.

I like Atlanta here. Their passing game has been firing on all cylinders thusfar, and Julio Jones may be a full-on superweapon. KC has one of the better pairs of corners in the league, but Tamba Hali is suspended for this game so KC basically has no pass rush to speak of. Brandon Flowers is also hurt, and as of now his availability is up in the air. The Chiefs’ run D is solid, but I think Atlanta de-emphasizes the run and fires it around, with Jacquizz Rodgers filling the Darren Sproles role.

When the Chiefs have the ball, it’s no question that Matt Cassel is flat-out poor. If their backup situation wasn’t outright laughable, his job would be in danger. As is, he’s not too much of a threat to do much against an Atlanta team that may have the NFC’s best secondary after adding Asante Samuel. The KC ground game should be strong, but Atlanta’s run defense should be very good even after losing Curtis Lofton in the middle, and Jamaal Charles still needs to prove that he can be a passing game substitute like he was in 2010 after his knee surgery.

I’d worry more about the Arrowhead home field advantage if KC hadn’t gotten themselves fuckstomped at home in Week One last season against the Bills of all teams.

It’s hard to recommend a team starting a rookie QB who’s breaking his cherry on the road, but I think Seattle wins this game. Seattle’s D is one of the best in the NFC, and Arizona’s offensive line may be one of the worst in recent memory. There is going to be a ton of heat on Kolb or Skelton or whoever they decide to trot out there, and Seattle has a ball-hawking secondary featuring Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas at safety to pounce on some inevitable panic throws. Neither of Arizona’s running backs are fully healthy, and Seattle even has some over 6’2" corners to match up with Larry Fitzgerald on jump balls.

The Seattle OL is not exactly a prize-winning bunch, but they’re far better than Arizona’s. The Cardinals D can get pressure with its DE’s, but their outside rush is lacking. Russell Wilson is a pretty self-possessed dude, and I like him to play this game with more poise than whoever Arizona puts under center. If you assume that he can at least break even with his Cardinal counterpart, you have to look at the fact that there are four positions out of the remaining 21 where a Cardinal would start over a Seahawk (FItzgerald at WR, Cambell at DE, Washington at ILB and Adrian Wilson at S though that one is just by a nose – when it comes to actual CB play, Patrick Peterson hasn’t shown that he has anything over Richard Sherman or Brandon Browner). Like the Bills/Jets game, the superior team on the road may play conservatively enough to make the under attractive as well, but I like the Seahawks winning here.