Predicting Texas Longhorns Statistical Leaders: Offense

by Scipio Tex on Aug 28, 2025 7:03 PM CDT in Texas Longhorns and Other Football

Can Joe B lead the Longhorn rushing attack?

Let's have your individual/unit predictions for the 2012 offense. Then we'll look back in January, 2013 and laugh at how wrong we were. Projected numbers include the bowl game (that's 13 games).

INDIVIDUAL

Passing

Ash - 312-188-2377-17 TDs - 9 INTs

Ash grows and finishes the season with a positive TD to INT ratio. Case McCoy sees spot duty and, of course, Jaxon Shipley leads us in passing efficiency. If I'm delusional, you can tell me so.

Rushing

Bergeron - 1051
Brown - 910
Gray - 425

I'd like to predict two 1,000 yard rushers, but the structure of our offense also means carries for Daje/DJ, the QB, and the wide receiver corps (Goodwin, Shipley). Many prefer Brown's sweet feet to Bergeron's raw power, but I'll take Joe to edge him out.

Total Touchdowns

Bergeron - 14
Brown - 9
Shipley - 9

I expect Bergeron to be our primary short yardage back. Shipley will score as a receiver, rusher, and returner.

Receiving

Shipley - 63- 885 - 6 tds
Davis - 51- 660- 3 tds

Shipley misses two games, but remains the clear #1. Davis rebounds to be a solid #2.

UNIT PREDICTIONS

427.0 yards per game
33.5 points per game
Six different Longhorn running backs score TDs
The Longhorns throw for 2500+, run for 3,000+
#11 national rushing offense
Top 30 scoring offense

Poll

Who leads the 2012 Longhorns in rushing?

Tweet Comment 23 comments | Add comment | 1 recs |

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Read More: Case McCoy (QB - Texas), Jaxon Shipley (WR - Texas), Texas Longhorns

Comments

I'm with you

I think Bergeron gets a slight edge over Malcolm in yardage, but that mostly will be a function of him getting late, closer carries against tired defenses. Think Brown leads us in carries. Gray leads in YPC.

And I think you’re spot with Ash’s production. I figure he throws around 60%, about 20 attempts per game, a little more than 2,000 yards, and a TD/INT ratio just south of 2.0.

Hook 'em! @michaelpelech10 on Twitter

by The Audit Horn on Aug 28, 2025 7:17 PM CDT via mobile reply actions

it takes quite a bit to get you in cheerleader mode

thats got to be a good sign for thye season.

by 55f100tx on Aug 28, 2025 7:24 PM CDT reply actions

the

by 55f100tx on Aug 28, 2025 7:25 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm excited when our underlying behaviors are sound.

The game results come eventually.

by Scipio Tex on Aug 28, 2025 7:26 PM CDT up reply actions

As St. Nick (Saban) says....

It’s about the process.

by hh500 on Aug 28, 2025 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions

I voted for Gray

Just to send a little love.

by Hondo Crouch on Aug 28, 2025 7:46 PM CDT reply actions

I'll go with

Team:
45—240 per game rushing
15-24 passes for 210 per game.
That’s 450 per game.
Total scoring (not just offense): 37.5 per game
Turnovers: not more than 1 int and 1 Fumble per game.

Individual:
Rushing:
Jeremy Hills: 20-250, 4 TDs per game
Others: 25-(-10) per game
Passing:
Shipley: 15-20 15 TDs 900 yards
others: never mind
Receiving:
Matthews: 15—900 10 TDs
Shipley: 65—1620 5 TDs
others: 100-0 no TDs
Also 1 FG and 3 safeties (special teams and defense)

I am more confident about my team numbers.

by lurkerinthedark on Aug 28, 2025 8:32 PM CDT reply actions

Barrett Matthews

Spot on, IMO. Offseason hand-transplant surgery.

Hook 'em! @michaelpelech10 on Twitter

by The Audit Horn on Aug 28, 2025 10:52 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

did i wake up in bazaaro world?

this has to be your attempt at humor..

If You See Kay, Oh You

by texfan23 on Aug 29, 2025 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm going out on a limb

and predict that one of the 15 TEs we have makes a game winning TD catch.

by Texoz on Aug 28, 2025 9:01 PM CDT reply actions

The ball may have to stick in their damn facemask for them to hold on to it

but here’s hoping!

by nobis60 on Aug 29, 2025 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions

“Receiving
1.Shipley – 63- 885 – 6 tds
2.Davis – 51- 660- 3 tds

Shipley misses two games, but remains the clear #1. Davis rebounds to be a solid #2.”

Didnt Davis go for 45-605-1 last year? How does achieving that stat line really move him in to the “rebounded” category?

by UT_BKC on Aug 28, 2025 10:17 PM CDT via mobile reply actions

He had lesser #s as a freshman

but played a lot better. I’m interested in efficiency per target.

by Scipio Tex on Aug 28, 2025 10:21 PM CDT up reply actions

I’ll go with. Does any site track drops per game? Or even targets. I know it feels like he dropped a lot last year, but I don’t know how much worse he was, and other than going by impressions, I won’t know for sure if he improves.

by UT_BKC on Aug 28, 2025 10:31 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

I'm not sure about drops per game.

Scipio had a good article addressing receiving stats for last season. It included a chart that came from Football Study Hall breaking down yards per target and catch rate percentage (among other stats).

This doesn’t give you a drops per target exactly, but if we assume that all the receivers are getting passes delivered to the with the same level of accuracy (over the course of the season at least), and facing roughly the same level of defense (a more dubious assumption given the possibility that some teams have only 1-2 good corners), we can at least make a guess at who is doing a better job of bringing in the ball instead of dropping it like an 8am calculus class. (That might just be the most convoluted sentence I’ve ever written, but I’m too sleepy to edit.)

You won’t be surprised to see that Shipley had a noticeably better catch per target rate.

by Flipteach on Aug 29, 2025 12:37 AM CDT up reply actions

You are basically predicting a solid step forward

And we should be able to win 9-10 games if we can take a solid step forward on offense and stay healthy on defense knock on wood.
. . .
There is a voice in my head telling me that Harsin should be able to “cover” all of those predictions with the athletes we have on offense, but until I see a game or two, I’m going to label it the voice of hope, not reason.

by Alphahydro on Aug 28, 2025 11:45 PM CDT reply actions

I don't know...

We can’t sleep on John Harris for passing efficiency. In the one game he threw a pass, his QB rating was something in the 700s.

Other random responses:

I wonder if Davis has fewer catches for roughly that many yards, but slightly more TDs. I kinda have the feeling he’s going to be our deep ball play action route runner more than Shipley. (Although I secretly hope that Goodwin fills that role).

Also, Shipley does not have permission to need to miss two games. Bubble wrap, yo.

by Flipteach on Aug 29, 2025 12:48 AM CDT reply actions

I would be happy with that offensive production

But did you consider potential impact due to injuries. I am not suggesting that you predict individual player injuries (don’t go down Ship!!!), but 427 yds/game feels like a best case / no injury scenario. Am I off base?

Thanks, Scipio. I greatly enjoy reading your stuff.

by Where'sWaldo on Aug 29, 2025 9:18 AM CDT reply actions

I like this exercise

I’m slightly less bullish on Ash. I’ve got him around 2200 on 60% passing. Only 13-14 TD’s and 9-10 INT’s.

I tend to think Malcolm will lead us in rushing, but I’ve got him just below 1000 for the year. Second will likely be big Joe, but I think Gray will be closer than you’ve predicted (perhaps 700-800 for Joe and 500-600 for Gray).

Agree on your TD predictions, receiving leaders, and most of the overall offense. I’ve got PPG around 31, hoping that scoring per game will be 38-40 with ST’s and D thrown in.

Thanks for doing these and all your write-ups, Scip. Always fun.

by ophorn on Aug 29, 2025 10:20 AM CDT reply actions

Like others, I think Davis' numbers are better

3 TD’s for the season makes me think the play action passing game is broken. Seems like our receivers, most often Davis, were wide open deep on play action at least a couple of times a game last year.

I think he at least doubles your prediction of 3.

by Horncasting on Aug 29, 2025 10:24 AM CDT reply actions

Find some wood. Knock on it.

I pray to see these numbers in December (maybe January?!).

Hook em.

by pleaseplaykindle on Aug 29, 2025 11:00 AM CDT reply actions

If Gray does as well as Fozzy in the wildcat

or even close to his production there, Gray may gain just as many yards possibly off less plays than the two main backs.

TEXAS FIGHT

by Darklust on Aug 29, 2025 1:18 PM CDT reply actions

Not sure if you consider statistical sub-categories . . .

But I think Jeremy Hills leads the team in 4th quarter yardage. He’ll hog the carries in the blowouts and the carries will be spread out in the close games.

This week’s barrage of posts have got me so fired up that I feel like I’m in mid-season form . . . which means I’ll be clicking the refresh on ESPN Gamecast every 10 to 15 seconds.

by Cirque Du Salado on Aug 29, 2025 1:42 PM CDT reply actions