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Dallas/LA: The Margin for Error

Since the Lakers acquired Pau Gasol in 2008, the only team with the size to defend them in the paint has been the Boston Celtics.

LA is 1-1 against Boston in the playoffs and 12-0 against everyone else.

To beat the Lakers, you have to have a front-court that can defend the trio of Andrew Bynum (7'6 wingspan), Pau Gasol (7'5) and Lamar Odom (7'4). And they've just been too tall, too long and too skilled for the rest of the NBA.

None of those other twelve playoff series were ever really in doubt. LA was taken to a Game 7 in only one -- against Houston in 2009 -- and they won by 19 points.

This year, even when New Orleans split the first four games against the Lakers, they never had much of actually winning the series. The Hornets had the smallest starting front-court in the playoffs with Emeka Okafor and Carl Landry; the Lakers had a huge advantage inside which they could exploit at any time.

The Mavericks are the first team the Lakers have faced besides Boston with the size to bang with them inside. Dallas has a two-man rotation of Tyson Chandler (7'1 230 with a 7'2 wingspan) and Brendan Haywood (7'0 260 with a 7'6 wingspan) at center, and another seven-footer in Dirk at the power forward position.

If you can't defend LA in the post, nothing else matters.

That doesn't guarantee a victory against LA, but it does give them a chance.

Everything went right for Dallas in Game 1, and they won by two points. Their margin for error, as Steve Kerr pointed out on the telecast, is virtually zero.

Surprisingly enough, given their reputation, the biggest problem for Dallas in this series is on the offensive side of the ball.

The only Maverick who can consistently create his own shot in the half-court is Dirk. He has averaged 27.4 points per game in these playoffs; the other Game 1 starters for Dallas -- Jason Kidd, DeShawn Stevenson, Shawn Marion and Tyson Chandler -- average a combined 30.5. He has a 34.8 usage rating; only two other Mavericks -- reserve guards Jason Terry and JJ Barea -- have one over 20.

Going small in the back-court with Barea and Terry has been one of Dallas' most effective offensive line-ups all season, but they can't use it much against LA. Having the 6'2 Terry guard Kobe Bryant isn't a plan; it's suicide.

Dallas cannot allow this to happen.

LA's weak-link defensively is at the point guard position; Barea and Terry have to attack Derek Fisher and Steve Blake whenever they're guarding them. But in crunch-time, the Lakers can hide their points on Jason Kidd, and put the 6'6 Kobe on the Mavs scoring guards.

The Mavericks have to attack Steve Blake the second he steps on the floor.

Conversely, Kidd has no one to match up with defensively at the end of the game. Terry has to be on Fisher, which leaves the 6'4 Kidd giving up inches either to Kobe or the 6'8 Artest.

Kobe, at this point in his career, no longer has the athletic ability to blow by people. Instead, he relies on his size and foot-work to create shooting angles. If you put a shorter player on him, he will get a good look at the basket.

And while Kidd did an admirable job on Kobe, he still got a lot of open shots at the end of the game. The game's last play, in particular, was a microcosm of that match-up: Kobe fading away and getting a wide-open look at the basket.

Kobe can get a good look against Kidd at will.

The key to guarding Kobe is having a longer defender on him, one who can match his foot-speed and still contest his jumper.

That's why the Maverick with the highest +/- in Game 1 was Corey Brewer, a seldom-used reserve guard whom Dallas picked up mid-season. A long and athletic 6'8 185 perimeter player, he instantly changed the complexion of the game when he came in. With two seven-footers inside, Marion at the 3 and Brewer at the 2, the Mavericks were actually longer and more athletic than the Lakers.

Going forward, Brewer should start in place of DeShawn Stevenson, who at only 6'5 220 can't really bother Kobe's shot. And if Dallas is going to play Kidd at the end of the game, they're better off having Ron Artest (who had 2 points on 1-8 shooting last night) shoot over him than Kobe.

Photobucket
Brewer makes the Mavericks a lot more athletic when he's on the floor.

Winning this series is going to require a constant juggling act from Mavs coach Rick Carlisle: his best offensive unit can't defend LA, and his best defensive unit can't score against them.

He has to hope Dallas can stay even offensively when Terry and Barea aren't in the game, and that those two continue to dominate when LA plays their reserve guards -- Shannon Brown and Steve Blake. Then in crunch-time, he has to hope that neither Kobe nor Artest can take advantage of the shorter Kidd defensively.

At the same time, he has to buy time on the interior when Dirk's not on the floor, and hope that Shawn Marion can defend Lamar Odom and keep him off the offensive glass, despite giving up over 3 inches in height.

If all this goes right, like in Game 1, the Mavs still need to out-execute LA down the stretch to win. Their margin for error is slim at best.

And while Dallas needs to play a near-perfect game to beat LA, the Lakers were a Kobe buzzer-beater from winning despite getting only 8 points on 3-8 shooting from Bynum.

Terry, the Mavs second leading scorer, played about as well as you could expect him to play, and he got 15 points. Gasol, the Lakers second leading scorer, had a decidedly average game, and he still got 15 points.

Most tellingly, Dallas was out-scored 46-36 in the paint. Usually over the course of a seven-game series, legs start to get weak and jumpers stop falling. The Mavs will have to reverse that trend, and continue hitting 45% from three-point range.

The reality is, of the five best players in this series, four of them play for LA. The odds are definitely still in their favor.

But unlike most of the Lakers' playoff opponents over the last three years, the Mavericks have a real chance at beating them.

** The most over-rated stat in the NBA: teams that win Game 1 go on to win the series 78% of the time. In a non-competitive series, one that ends 4-0 or 4-1, that number will be much higher. In a competitive series, one that ends 4-2 or 4-3, that number will be much lower. **

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Awesome. One thing that you start to notice when analyzing these games closely is that Kobe’s 3 was oh so close to hitting. He makes that and we have a different view point. Today we are talking about what the Mavs could do better instead of what they did right. Its amazing how one shot, one inch, can change how we view the game. In reality the Mavs still need to play better and I think it comes down to Terry. We know Dirk will get his, as well as Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, Chandler. But Terry can shoot the Mavs right out of the game. He went 6-10, next game he could go to something putrid like 3-12. Unfortunatly I think that is more likely than what we saw last night. Hope I am wrong though

by Mysterious Package on May 3, 2025 6:54 PM CDT reply actions  

I thought the Mavericks won the game because they didn’t worry that much about their inability to guard Kobe and focused on cleaning up around him. Not to mention Phil Jackson’s inability to properly substitute down the stretch.
 
When Kobe scores 36 of the Lakers 94 points on 29 shots, that’s not necessarily a good thing for the Lakers.
 
By the way - 0 assists.
 
The lesson I took from last year’s Laker success in the playoffs the importance of playing through Gasol. When Kobe gets 25 points and 7 assists, the Lakers are the best team in basketball.

by Scipio Tex on May 3, 2025 7:04 PM CDT reply actions  

Dallas collected two technical fouls and was called for a 3 point shooting foul in the last 60 seconds of the first half that led to a 9 point spread.

How is that everything going right for Dallas?

by Newy25 on May 3, 2025 8:26 PM CDT reply actions  

Terry’s scoring is going to be so crucial for Dallas, but he’ll have trouble creating offense with Kobe on him in the fourth quarter. That’s why he needs to maximize his floor time when he has Fisher, Blake and Brown on him. That’s the point of the game the Mavericks need to dominate.

And yea if Kobe’s getting 25 with 7 assists, shooting a good percentage and playing lock-down perimeter D, I don’t think the Mavs can win. But I’m not sure he’s that guy anymore. And I’d much rather have him deciding the series than Gasol, Bynum and Odom on the interior.

by tjarks on May 3, 2025 10:36 PM CDT reply actions  

The mavs played poorly and still won. What should have been a 5 point game going into halftime, was turned into a laughing stock situation. the laker lead went from 49-44, with 0.3 seconds left in the first half, to 60-44 in about 1:22 of basketball (including the start of the 3rd quarter - Dallas’ 3 possessions, 3 turnovers. ) but the mavericks hung in there, were patient, started rebounding, and played defense. That, and the lakers basically fell asleep and lost their confidence watching the Kobe Show.

by Wackho on May 3, 2025 10:39 PM CDT reply actions  

The Celtics look old and done. Lebron and Wade are taking turns schooling them.
 
I think the Thunder have figured out how to handle Memphis. Slow the tempo down just a smidgen, let Conley score 30 if he wants, and get some contributions off of the bench so they don’t wear down. Nice games from Harden and Maynor to complement Durant/Westbrook. Really rolled up the Grizzly bigs in this one - Gasol/Randolph were a combined 5 of 22 from the field.

by Scipio Tex on May 3, 2025 11:56 PM CDT reply actions  

“That, and the lakers basically fell asleep and lost their confidence watching the Kobe Show.”

I was sitting right behind the Laker bench, and honestly from everything they said and did, it seemed like the opposite was the case. They were so confident they never really seemed to get they could lose the game. Even when they left the floor the tone and comments were more along the lines of, Well that was dumb now we have to do what we just did to the Hornets.

by BEHorn on May 4, 2025 9:14 AM CDT reply actions  

“Everything went right for Dallas in Game 1, and they won by two points.”

Are you kidding me with this schtick? Did you even watch the game? They totally collapsed at the end of the 1st half, Kobe was his usual Dallas-killing self, Jason Kidd turned the ball over at will, Stevenson couldn’t hit the broad side of the barn but kept shooting anyway, Marion was 5-11, and we shot half as many free throws as the Lakers.

But everything went right for Dallas.

Right.

by Orangeblood79 on May 4, 2025 9:45 AM CDT reply actions  

I think “Getting your own shot” is such an overrated concept in basketball. How about setting a few picks, or passing the ball once in a while. I have no idea how a stat line like Kobe’s in game one merits five minutes of sports center time— yes he was 14 of 29 and scored 36 points. He also had ZERO assistants and three turnovers. Oh and his team lost, but the WWL spent the entire segment on how great Kobe was.

The best thing for Dallas is if Kobe decides he has to “take the game over” i.e. take 90% of the shots. Unfortunately, Kobe doesn’t really have to work defensively because really Dirk is the one guy on Dallas who is consistently tough to check, and Kobe probably won’t be guarding him.

by roach on May 4, 2025 10:00 AM CDT reply actions  

Everything went right for the Mavs? Huh?

This Mavs team is different with Chandler. Not sure they will win the series, but keeping Tyson on the floor is key.

Watched the game at a sports bar in Santa Monica. Lakers fans didn’t believe their eyes. 16 point 3rd quarter lead and lose to the Mavericks??? Mavs looked like the better team. Can’t believe I just typed that. All this without their 2nd leading scorer (Butler).

by Art Vandelay on May 4, 2025 11:26 AM CDT reply actions  

Excellent post, wish I had noticed it was up before posting my own thoughts a minute ago.

by Nickel Rover on May 4, 2025 12:02 PM CDT reply actions  

By everything going right for Dallas, I’m looking at a couple things — three-point shooting (45% for Dallas, 26% for LA), the poor play of Gasol/Bynum and the excellent play of Terry/Barea. The Mavs 6’0 guards actually had as many points as the Lakers 7’0 post players — 23.

I don’t think the Mavericks can count on all three of those things continuing over a seven-game series, which is why it was so important for them to close out Game 1 when they had the chance to get a win in LA.

by tjarks on May 4, 2025 3:59 PM CDT reply actions  

Nice article. I’m beginning to get my hopes up with the Lakers down 2 - 0. Barea as a fresh set of legs in the 4th was killer.

by The Hairline of Wade Boggs on May 5, 2025 12:14 AM CDT reply actions  

Nowitzki can’t be guarded.
 
LA is so scared of him they’re abandoning any pretense of help on dribblers.

by Scipio Tex on May 5, 2025 12:51 AM CDT reply actions  

The shot he hit on Pau Gasol towards the end of the fourth quarter was just absurd. I don’t think he had even turned his head to look at the basket until he was already fading away.

The big thing LA needs to do right now is punish Terry and Barea defensively. They can’t allow Dallas to get away with that line-up, and that’s where their lack of depth just kills them — Brown and Blake in particular have been giving them nothing.

by tjarks on May 5, 2025 1:00 AM CDT reply actions  

Pretty stunned by last night. It looks like the margin of error can get as big as LA lets it get. Which is a lot of larger than I ever thought they’d allow. Wow. I missed the second half but caught some highlights, does Artest get a 1 game suspension?

by Burnt Orange Wookiee on May 5, 2025 8:50 AM CDT reply actions  

There are many reasons the Mavs are outplaying the Lakers, and having everything "go their way" isn’t one of them. Dirk is playing at a higher level now than we was his MVP season, and Chandler gives them their first center that can contribute on both ends of the floor since James Donaldson. How about 38 year old Jason Kidd? He is doing what he does… which is making everyone on the floor better. He sees and does all the little things that most NBA players can’t do or don’t care to do, and he is playing smart physical defense against Kobe.

Dallas is the deepest team in the NBA, and the energy level difference between these two teams is obvious. Carlisle did a much better job this season limiting minutes.

Artest deserves a two game suspension. It wasn’t the only cheap shot he took during the game.

by Art Vandelay on May 5, 2025 9:40 AM CDT reply actions  

This is the NBA, the Lakers are in the playoffs fighting for their lives, I will be shocked if Artest even gets a game suspension.

Some one from the league office is probably on the phone right now with the head of officials.

by roach on May 5, 2025 10:35 AM CDT reply actions  

I expect Artest to get a one game suspension.

by Scipio Tex on May 5, 2025 1:44 PM CDT reply actions  

He will serve it at the beginning of next season.

by Drew Dunlevie on May 5, 2025 2:28 PM CDT reply actions  

Maybe I’ve been watching too much Law & Order on TNT, but the pre-meditation of what Artest did really bothers me. It’s one thing to get caught up with a guy in the heat of a moment and clothesline him, especially for a known hot-head. It’s quite another to stroll across the court, deck a dude half your size after the play is over and then calmly walk away, knowing what you did is going to get you ejected.

by tjarks on May 5, 2025 3:55 PM CDT reply actions  

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