Time for the weekly look at the upcoming Big 12 games based on ratings and adjusted stats to date. As always, keep in mind that personnel matchups, coaching decisions, injuries, etc. will not play into the numerical predictions and are all important information that will still need to be considered.
The stat regression model for 2011 through the games of 11/12/11 is 3.42*TPPA + 2.60*TRPC - 263.73*TVPP, which is used for the below analyses.
Also note that my power rating predicted scores below will differ from the analyzer because I'm using a standard 3 point homefield advantage while the analyzer uses the season results to date. Additionally, the official picks published later in the week may differ from the other games section because standard deviations aren't considered here.
Texas (+8.5) @ Texas A&M - Thursday, 7:00 ESPN
Power Rating Predicted Score - Texas A&M 31, Texas 24
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Texas A&M 26, Texas 23
Matchup Analyzer Link
All of you know the history with this one, and that this is the last meeting as conference mates and the last meeting at all for quite a while. The Aggies are the better team and have been all year despite finding new and exciting ways to lose consistently this season. The Longhorns will need to take advantage of A&M's tendency to give up the ball to win the turnover battle, find anything that can work on offense, and maybe just maybe not get completely bent over by a critical call that goes beyond bad all the way to ludicrous. Not even the prospect of losing 13 games in a two season span for the first time since 1988-89 can kill my optimism, though. I'm betting your money on Texas as the Longhorns win 24-23. Don't ask me how they pull it off because there's not really a good reason for it.
Iowa St. (+28) @ Oklahoma Saturday, 11:00 FX
Power Rating Predicted Score - Oklahoma 44, Iowa St. 15
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Oklahoma 32, Iowa St. 17
Matchup Analyzer Link
Both these teams were involved in upsets last week, and the Cyclone version resulted in a single play 46-unit profit on the moneyline for my current computer model that is due an update in the offseason. Considering the loss at home to Texas Tech this year, the upset loss last week to Baylor, and Iowa State's upset win over the Cowboys, and I think it's safe to say that Bob Stoops may actually have his team's attention for a late season game they should win. I'll still take the Cyclones to cover as they lose 41-17.
Kansas (+24) vs. Missouri Saturday, 2:30 FSN
Power Rating Predicted Score - Missouri 42, Kansas 14
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Missouri 45, Kansas 21
Matchup Analyzer Link
Apparently the scare the Jayhawks put into Baylor was a momentary blip. The Tigers escaped Texas Tech last week on a tipped pass near their own goal line, so there's that little bit of hope for Kansas. I'll just split the models here and call it Missouri 44-17.
Baylor (-12) vs. Texas Tech Saturday, 6:00 FSN
Power Rating Predicted Score - Baylor 50, Texas Tech 39
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Baylor 50, Texas Tech 33
Matchup Analyzer Link
Texas Tech is a certifiably insane football team. Switching Leach out for Tuberville hasn't changed that. And when you have a schizo team like the Red Raiders, the moneyline is always something you should look at. That kind of thinking will result in lots of wild swings in your fortunes, but then things like 46-unit profits on a single game happen. I'll take Baylor 50-36 but will know that the score could vary wildly either direction from that number.
THE FOUR GAMES WHERE THE MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE CONSENSUS SPREAD BY THE LARGEST NUMBER OF POINTS
We are getting very late in the season and so there are not many more large discrepancies ahead of us.
Notre Dame (+6.5) @ Stanford
Power Rating Predicted Score - Stanford 39, Notre Dame 24
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Stanford 39, Notre Dame 24
Matchup Analyzer Link
So I'm pretty sure the models think that the average result in this game if played many times would be a 39-24 Stanford win. This one surprises me because the computer has liked the Irish for much of this season.
Ohio St. (+7.5) @ Michigan
Power Rating Predicted Score - Michigan 28, Ohio St. 12
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Michigan 31, Ohio St. 16
Matchup Analyzer Link
Michigan was the pick in this same spot last week and hit easily. Can they do it two weeks in a row?
San Diego St. (-14.5) @ UNLV
Power Rating Predicted Score - San Diego St. 37, UNLV 18
Stat Regression Predicted Score - San Diego St. 37, UNLV 16
Matchup Analyzer Link
The convergence between the models at this point in the season is right where I hoped it would be. One of the things I intend to do this offseason is determine if it's the stat model converging toward the power rating or the power rating converging toward the stat model. My gut is on the stat model performing better during the middle of the season.
Boston College (+14.5) @ Miami (FL)
Power Rating Predicted Score - Miami (FL) 27, Boston College 7
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Miami (FL) 39, Boston College 19
Matchup Analyzer Link
And as soon as I say that we have a major totals disagreement. The good news is that pace is something I intend to include in an updated model and the margin forecast is once again very consistent here. Miami and Boston College are two slow-paced teams this year, the Hurricanes in particular.
That's it for this week.