Big 12 Games Preview - Thanksgiving Weekend
Time for the weekly look at the upcoming Big 12 games based on ratings and adjusted stats to date. As always, keep in mind that personnel matchups, coaching decisions, injuries, etc. will not play into the numerical predictions and are all important information that will still need to be considered.
The stat regression model for 2011 through the games of 11/12/11 is 3.42*TPPA + 2.60*TRPC - 263.73*TVPP, which is used for the below analyses.
Also note that my power rating predicted scores below will differ from the analyzer because I'm using a standard 3 point homefield advantage while the analyzer uses the season results to date. Additionally, the official picks published later in the week may differ from the other games section because standard deviations aren't considered here.
Texas (+8.5) @ Texas A&M; - Thursday, 7:00 ESPN
Power Rating Predicted Score - Texas A&M; 31, Texas 24
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Texas A&M; 26, Texas 23
Matchup Analyzer Link
All of you know the history with this one, and that this is the last meeting as conference mates and the last meeting at all for quite a while. The Aggies are the better team and have been all year despite finding new and exciting ways to lose consistently this season. The Longhorns will need to take advantage of A&M;'s tendency to give up the ball to win the turnover battle, find anything that can work on offense, and maybe just maybe not get completely bent over by a critical call that goes beyond bad all the way to ludicrous. Not even the prospect of losing 13 games in a two season span for the first time since 1988-89 can kill my optimism, though. I'm betting your money on Texas as the Longhorns win 24-23. Don't ask me how they pull it off because there's not really a good reason for it.
Iowa St. (+28) @ Oklahoma Saturday, 11:00 FX
Power Rating Predicted Score - Oklahoma 44, Iowa St. 15
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Oklahoma 32, Iowa St. 17
Matchup Analyzer Link
Both these teams were involved in upsets last week, and the Cyclone version resulted in a single play 46-unit profit on the moneyline for my current computer model that is due an update in the offseason. Considering the loss at home to Texas Tech this year, the upset loss last week to Baylor, and Iowa State's upset win over the Cowboys, and I think it's safe to say that Bob Stoops may actually have his team's attention for a late season game they should win. I'll still take the Cyclones to cover as they lose 41-17.
Kansas (+24) vs. Missouri Saturday, 2:30 FSN
Power Rating Predicted Score - Missouri 42, Kansas 14
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Missouri 45, Kansas 21
Matchup Analyzer Link
Apparently the scare the Jayhawks put into Baylor was a momentary blip. The Tigers escaped Texas Tech last week on a tipped pass near their own goal line, so there's that little bit of hope for Kansas. I'll just split the models here and call it Missouri 44-17.
Baylor (-12) vs. Texas Tech Saturday, 6:00 FSN
Power Rating Predicted Score - Baylor 50, Texas Tech 39
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Baylor 50, Texas Tech 33
Matchup Analyzer Link
Texas Tech is a certifiably insane football team. Switching Leach out for Tuberville hasn't changed that. And when you have a schizo team like the Red Raiders, the moneyline is always something you should look at. That kind of thinking will result in lots of wild swings in your fortunes, but then things like 46-unit profits on a single game happen. I'll take Baylor 50-36 but will know that the score could vary wildly either direction from that number.
THE FOUR GAMES WHERE THE MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE CONSENSUS SPREAD BY THE LARGEST NUMBER OF POINTS
We are getting very late in the season and so there are not many more large discrepancies ahead of us.
Notre Dame (+6.5) @ Stanford
Power Rating Predicted Score - Stanford 39, Notre Dame 24
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Stanford 39, Notre Dame 24
Matchup Analyzer Link
So I'm pretty sure the models think that the average result in this game if played many times would be a 39-24 Stanford win. This one surprises me because the computer has liked the Irish for much of this season.
Ohio St. (+7.5) @ Michigan
Power Rating Predicted Score - Michigan 28, Ohio St. 12
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Michigan 31, Ohio St. 16
Matchup Analyzer Link
Michigan was the pick in this same spot last week and hit easily. Can they do it two weeks in a row?
San Diego St. (-14.5) @ UNLV
Power Rating Predicted Score - San Diego St. 37, UNLV 18
Stat Regression Predicted Score - San Diego St. 37, UNLV 16
Matchup Analyzer Link
The convergence between the models at this point in the season is right where I hoped it would be. One of the things I intend to do this offseason is determine if it's the stat model converging toward the power rating or the power rating converging toward the stat model. My gut is on the stat model performing better during the middle of the season.
Boston College (+14.5) @ Miami (FL)
Power Rating Predicted Score - Miami (FL) 27, Boston College 7
Stat Regression Predicted Score - Miami (FL) 39, Boston College 19
Matchup Analyzer Link
And as soon as I say that we have a major totals disagreement. The good news is that pace is something I intend to include in an updated model and the margin forecast is once again very consistent here. Miami and Boston College are two slow-paced teams this year, the Hurricanes in particular.
That's it for this week.
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I agree with you. Texas will beat A&M, somehow. That is the natural order of things with Aggie being Aggie and UT being UT.
by BaylorLine on Nov 21, 2025 11:41 AM CST reply actions
As the Python’s say, “Always look on the bright side of life!”. 24 points would be more points than your team has scored in the last 8 quarters. Your defense is good, but unless you learn to score on Special teams or on D I don’t think this game looks too promising. Cyrus may be out, but I don’t know how healthy MB1 and Joe Bergeron are going to be for you. Our D isn’t very good, but they are decent at stopping the run - which is the only thing you are decent at doing.
by KilgoreTrout on Nov 21, 2025 11:51 AM CST reply actions
God, I want to make the play on UNLV, but I get burned each time their line looks good in comparison to the models. It’s almost like they are from Vegas or something.
by redfoot on Nov 21, 2025 11:56 AM CST reply actions
Baring some sort of miracle there is almost no chance we win Thursday. If A&M scores 14 points the game is essentially over.
by Newy25 on Nov 21, 2025 2:06 PM CST reply actions
Ags have beat Texas in years when Texas was actually the better team. Don’t give up on the Horns. Could actually be a very good game. Our defense is playing exceptionally well. Nothing wrong on defensive side of the ball. Our special teams are pretty good. It may be in the second half (when Ags get bumfuzzeled), but our running game could actually make the difference and we win. We probably wont depend of the arms of our two qb’s. But if we can run the ball, we are going to have a chance. We showed in the Tech game that we can run the ball.
by staylucky on Nov 21, 2025 2:18 PM CST reply actions
Oh, and by the way we saw just last week what Iowa St. did to Okie St. and we saw Baylor dump the dirt dobbers.
by staylucky on Nov 21, 2025 2:20 PM CST reply actions
Surely the Horns can muster something extra to send the Aggies on their way. Something extra for all the years they’re not going to play.
by kemit on Nov 21, 2025 3:00 PM CST reply actions
You guys realize A&M generally gets up by half time then quits right? They wont do that against Texas and if we get down early its going to be a long night. Our D will keep it close but the deadly combo of Ash and McCoy will evenutally do us in. Like clockwork.
by Mysterious Package on Nov 21, 2025 3:15 PM CST reply actions
staylucky-
Iowa State made a change at QB that ignited their offense. Not sure that is even a possibility for Texas. We would need a miracle in the lines of M. Thompson running the wildcat 50 times effectively to change the course of events for Thursday.
Betting the line is a different story. I am sure the defense will keep us in the game but i think Texas loses 20-9 or something.
by Newy25 on Nov 21, 2025 3:54 PM CST reply actions
You silly sips. We are SEC now! Please admit it now, all of you want secretly want to be Aggies. I predict 53-0. I told you before that we have a surprise for you come 1/2 time. Since you are such chickens that you do not want to play us anymore, we will give you a beating that you will remember for 20 years!
You all know the SEC is the best and now we are SEC
Now join in with a winner’s chant : Sing along, SEC SEC SEC
Do not bother showing up to watch us make your team beg for mercy!
by Aggie Jack on Nov 21, 2025 4:00 PM CST reply actions
In case you tu tards were too stupid to understand my score prediction
Texas A&M Aggies 53
tu shorthorns 0
Are you playing Case McCry or David Askmewhyieverplayed? Does not matter? I think not.
by Aggie Jack on Nov 21, 2025 4:15 PM CST reply actions
“We showed in the Tech game that we can run the ball.”
Well, we showed we can run it on Tech (and run it on Kansas). When at least one of Brown or Bergeron is healthy.
Still have to show we can run it against TAMoo with 8 in the box … if our QBs throw two interceptions again we’re in a lot of trouble, but if we don’t turn it over and can run some it could be a very close game, especially if Gray lite is out.
by desert fox on Nov 21, 2025 4:39 PM CST reply actions
Aggie Jack:
You sound like the pride of Texas A&M. I hope they give you time off at the feed store to watch the game.
by Horn93 on Nov 21, 2025 4:59 PM CST reply actions
AGGIE PROUD!! AGGIE GREATNESS!!! AGGIE=CHAMPS
You should have treated us better! We are the pride of the southwest in football! National champs in most everything!
We will be missed!
by Aggie Jack on Nov 21, 2025 5:08 PM CST reply actions
Horn93
I manage it and have sips working for me. AGGIE=BOSS
by Aggie Jack on Nov 21, 2025 5:15 PM CST reply actions
Aggie Jack is not an Aggie but I am. A disappointing season for us but misery loves company. 24 -10 good guys although I wish we would put a real beat down on you.
Told all you fools in the preseason you wouldn’t win 8 games.
by Aggie Lurking on Nov 21, 2025 5:16 PM CST reply actions
Aggie Lurking is not an Aggie. A real Aggie knows we will beat tu in the ground.
by Aggie Jack on Nov 21, 2025 5:20 PM CST reply actions
Aggie Lurking
These guys all know and respect me. They know when I tellem, they are getting a fact.
I am probably the most respected poster on this site! They love and honor me! Sometimes a few try to pop off but most know that I am just a little too smart to mess with.
Go back to your efficiency apt. and dream of being a real Aggie.
Gigem’
by Aggie Jack on Nov 21, 2025 6:18 PM CST reply actions
“National champs in most everything!”
MUAHAHAHAHAHAHA. buahahahAHAHAHAHAHA! How are those football championships coming along, aggy?
You’re not even the 3rd best academic institution in Texas. Fuckin’ SMU got you beat in that. WTF do you have going for you, aggy?? Do your child a favor and send him to TEXAS.
by UT07 on Nov 21, 2025 7:27 PM CST reply actions
The main thing that aggie fans get each year is “DISAPPOINTED!!!” they are a .500 team every year. They get beat down in bowl games. This year they lost the lead so many times and then lost the game, it aint funny. One year when the previous coach (Franchone) was here they almost lost to a bad Army team. I mean how do aggie fans keep going?? How do they keep their fire burning?? Sherman is going to be fired and then it starts all over again. One disappointing year after another. If I was an aggie fan I would be disappointed that they couldn’t win in the Big 12 so they left. That is a cop out, which is yet another disappointment. At least in the Big 12 they have someone to hate—Texas Longhorns. In SEC they got nothing.
by staylucky on Nov 21, 2025 8:36 PM CST reply actions
Sigh! Aggie Jack is just another pimply faced, middle school twerp from Bryan - hiding in his closet, texting on his i-phone, wearing his whitey tidies and giggling over his bold and “clever” statements about THE University.
Not to worry about tAMU, they will quit in the 2nd half, as usual.
As far as the SEC - the bow tied nerd has condemned them to new masters and tAMU will finally disappear into obscurity and will be swept under the Big XII’s rug and forgotten and we will no longer have to suffer through the embarrassment of dealing with squids like little aggie jack!
by Snide Aside on Nov 21, 2025 9:44 PM CST reply actions
We may have to spread them out with 3 or 4 WR’s so they can’t stack too many in the box. Whether we can throw it or not.
by lonesome devil on Nov 22, 2025 2:27 PM CST reply actions

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