2012 NBA Draft: Some Texas-Centric Perspectives

by jc25 on Jun 29, 2025 9:18 AM CDT in Texas Longhorns and Other Basketball

NBA guru Jonathan Tjarks already has you covered with his thoughts on NBA Draft winners and losers. For the most part, I agree with his sentiments--as evidenced by our Mock Draft, we share convergent ideas when it comes to drafting and accruing talent. I had some additional, Texas-centric, thoughts I figured I would posit to the readership.

For those excoriating Rick Barnes and his one-and-dones, Tjarks also wrote a compelling piece for SB Dallas on Scott Drew's role in the fall of Perry Jones III and Quincy Miller. The bottom line is that Tristan Thompson (and, to a lesser extent, Cory Joseph) made a GREAT decision to declare last year. One only has to look at the plummeting draft stocks of sophomores Jones III, Jared Sullinger, and Harrison Barnes to catch that drift.

In a vacuum, the Houston Rockets had a great draft by bypassing low-ceiling need picks (Tyler Zeller, most notably) for elite, if mercurial, talents in Jeremy Lamb, Royce White, and Terrence Jones. Unfortunately, drafts are made with organizational and market factors at play, and the bottom line is that GM Daryl Morey now possesses a boatload of middling-to-average assets (with a particular glut at the forward spots). Lamb and Jones, for all their talents, look like they will never be "alpha dog" personalities, and Houston still lacks that dominant star that can raise the Rockets to a championship-contending level (or heck, even to the first and second rounds of the playoffs).

The Rockets appear to be, once again, a victim of timing. Rumor is that the Sacramento Kings were set to deal the fifth pick to Houston, if and only if Thomas Robinson wasn't on the board. You can thank Michael Jordan and his Michael Kidd-Gilchrist pick for that one. Further, it would seem that Orlando Magic General Manager Rob Hennigan--hired all of nine days ago--was unwilling to make a Dwight Howard-sized cannonball splash as his first move.

At this point, the Rockets should be pursuing one of two realistic options. The first is to work furiously until the start of the NBA season to package assets for Dwight Howard. No, the pieces the Rockets have are not terribly attractive, but short of the Lakers offering Andrew Bynum, Hennigan isn't likely to get a package much better than the one New York pitched for Carmelo Anthony. That's doable for the Rockets. The other option, which Morey will never do, is to jettison Kyle Lowry, Kevin Martin, and Luis Scola in order to go into full rebuilding mode and hopefully land a franchise-changing draft pick. Morey, like nearby franchise-building gurus Gregg Popovich, Mark Cuban and Sam Presti, has done an outstanding job landing complementary pieces to a championship-contending team. It's just really unfortunate that his stars (Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady) didn't hold up the end of the bargain. At this point, Morey can no longer afford to tread water for a fourth consecutive year. Apathy is at a record-high for Rockets fans and there is no end in sight.

As much as I liked the Rockets' draft, I hated the Mavericks' picks. Apparently I'm not alone. Low-ceiling is, frankly, an understatement for Jae Crowder and 27 year-old Bernard James. What's even more confusing is that the Mavericks passed on better comparable low-ceiling, high-floor players--Draymond Green and Tyler Zeller, for example--to pick Crowder and James. The Jared Cunningham selection was equally head-scratching. If you're going to pick on potential, why not go with Tony Wroten or Quincy Miller?

Yet ultimately, Dallas' position looks pretty clear. Cuban wants to go all-in to land Deron Williams (moving Shawn Marion appears to be the only obstacle), with the chance to reel in Howard in 2013. If Cuban can get Williams to sign, this head-scratching draft is ultimately irrelevant. But if he can't, Mavericks fans will be left wondering why Cuban chose to not re-sign Tyson Chandler last year, nor draft some high-ceiling stars that could end up being major contributors to the post-Nowitski era.

If you're wondering what the Oklahoma City Thunder's plan is to handle four max-player contracts, it's apparently: wait for other teams to screw up. I've long said that Jones III was a draft pick that would get a general manager fired, but little did I know that it wouldn't be the GM of the team drafting him. Jones III is a huge bust risk, but the bottom line is he's a top 5 talent in this draft that slid to 28. That's the best value pick of the draft. For Jones III, it's the perfect landing spot: low pressure development as a fifth option (at best). Presti was supposedly adamant prior to the draft that he wouldn't be trading James Harden this year, so there's at least one more run with their core group before the reality of the salary cap hits.

J'Covan Brown will reportedly sign a free agent contract with the Miami Heat. I don't expect him to make the team, but if he does, that's a good landing spot for him. Mario Chalmers, for all his NBA Finals heroics, is JAG at point guard, and Brown could even sneak in some minutes as a spot-up shooting 1, a la Daniel Gibson in Cleveland. People are questioning his decision, but Brown is a fourth-year junior with a young child. He wasn't improving his draft stock next year with Myck Kabongo returning, so why not take an extra year of income, even if it's overseas?

Tristan Thompson got a nice complementary big man in Tyler Zeller. With Zeller at center, Thompson can shift to becoming a high-energy offensive guy and paint-patrolling defender on the other end of the court. Thompson may never live up to the billing of fourth overall pick, but with a technically sound pieces at center and point guard flanking him, it won't be for lack of chess pieces.

Cory Joseph and Avery Bradley didn't lose any ground on their depth charts, which is nice. Miami taking a flyer on LSU's Justin Hamilton in the second round is not bad news, but not good news, for Dexter Pittman. Damion James could have had some opportunities on a terrible New Jersey team but needs to stay healthy, while D.J. Augustin is likely to continue ceding minutes to Kemba Walker.

This was an unusually deep draft class--I think there's a strong chance picks in the 15-30 range will outperform picks in the 5-15 range--so using it as a comparator for next year's draft class is perhaps foolhardy. But I'll do it anyway. Myck Kabongo's range looks to be between 10 (Austin Rivers) and 29 (Marquis Teague), assuming some growth. My guess is he's a late lottery pick if he can put together the season we're expecting. Freshman Cameron Ridley could find himself around 22 (Fab Melo) with the solid but unspectacular season many recruitniks are projecting. Hopefully he comes back for his sophomore season. With a breakout scoring year, Sheldon McClellan could be in the 24 (Jared Cunningham) to 39 (Khris Middleton) range, but that is a long shot.

My favorite picks-for-value: Detroit at 9 (Andre Drummond), Houston at 18 (Terrence Jones), Memphis at 25 (Tony Wroten), Denver at 38 (Quincy Miller), Portland at 40 (Will Barton), New Orleans at 46 (Darius Miller).

Top pick-for-value: Oklahoma City at 28 (Perry Jones III).

My head-scratching reach picks: Phoenix at 13 (Kendall Marshall), Atlanta at 23 (John Jenkins), Dallas at 24 (Jared Cunningham).

Worst head-scratching reach: Indiana at 26 (Miles Plumlee).

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Read More: mark cuban, rick barnes, sam presti, scott drew, daryl morey, 2012 nba draft, Carmelo Anthony (F - NYK), Dwight Howard (C - LAL), Kevin Martin (G - HOU), Deron Williams (G - NJN), Tyson Chandler (C - NYK), Kyle Lowry (G - TOR), Tracy McGrady (G - ATL), Yao Ming (C - WEST), Daniel Gibson (G - CLE), Andrew Bynum (C - PHI), Shawn Marion (F - DAL), Luis Scola (F - PHO), D.J. Augustin (G - IND), Mario Chalmers (G - MIA), Justin Hamilton (C - LSU), James Harden (G - OKC), Gregg Popovich (H - SAN), J`Covan Brown (G - Texas), Damion James (F - NJN), Avery Bradley (G - BOS), Dexter Pittman (C - MIA), Terrence Jones (F - Kentucky), Sheldon McClellan (G - Texas), Myck Kabongo (G - Texas), Tristan Thompson (C - CLE), Kemba Walker (G - CHA), Cory Joseph (G - SAN), Tyler Zeller (C - CLE), Jared Cunningham (G - DAL), Jae Crowder (F - DAL), Bernard James (C - DAL), Dallas Mavericks, Texas Longhorns, Houston Rockets, Oklahoma City Thunder

Comments

worst pick

Austin Rivers at 10. Wouldn’t you want your shooting guard to be a better shooter? He’s not even a good FT shooter.

by Nickel Rover on Jun 29, 2025 12:01 PM CDT reply actions

I am working on an Austin Rivers piece

He has some really quirky stats that suggest he was playing with an unusually high degree of difficulty.

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by Reggieball on Jun 29, 2025 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions

Defense

You would also like someone who might make some attempt at playing defense.

Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.

by Caradoc on Jun 30, 2025 8:24 AM CDT up reply actions

Austin Rivers problem is that he’s too short to play the way he wants to play in the NBA. He’ll get his free throws in order. He’s 19. I see him as a shorter Kevin Martin type, but hopefully he can play the microwave role with the Hornets off the bench next year.

Both Rivers and Harrison Barnes are going to be better as pros imo. HB made more “NBA” shots than anyone I saw in college basketball last year. The fact that he tended to completely disappear sometimes certainly is a problem, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him average ~15 next year with ~17-22 ppg in his near future.

by A-Tex Devil on Jun 29, 2025 12:30 PM CDT reply actions

Handle?

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by Sailor Ripley on Jun 29, 2025 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions

And I called Miles Plumlee right before it happened...

Because, really, who else was Indiana going to pick right there? Don’t they ALWAYS pick the tall white kid with midwestern roots/connections if he’s available?

by A-Tex Devil on Jun 29, 2025 12:32 PM CDT reply actions

When the absolutely have to they’ll go ahead and make a good pick like Paul George. But yea, it sure does seem like they go out of their way to draft a certain type of player.

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by tjarks on Jun 29, 2025 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions

Love the PJ3 pick for the Thunder

I hope Scott Brooks experiments with some zone this next year now that they have all this athleticism and length stockpiled. PJ3 will easily transition into the fast break game the Thunder have, while he shouldn’t have much asked of him in the half court sets.

by HornsUpInLA on Jun 29, 2025 1:36 PM CDT reply actions

I think more teams

should and will experiment with zone. Especially after the thrasing the Heat administered last year, teams should be tired of getting abused by Wade/James and giving up 30 FT’s pretty soon.

by Nickel Rover on Jun 29, 2025 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions

Problem with playing a zone against Miami is they can go LeBron at the 4, Bosh at the 5 and have LeBron pick it apart from the high post. I think the only way to beat the Heat is to play big men good enough to force them into a more traditional line-up.

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by tjarks on Jun 29, 2025 6:10 PM CDT up reply actions

Cuban stated he thought the Mavs zone was enough to get them into a funk

He thinks that is why they won the Ship last year

by HornsUpInLA on Jun 29, 2025 7:05 PM CDT up reply actions

that is a new development with them

that would make zone trickier. but as hornsupinla noted, the Mavs used the zone very effectively against them. Denying James and Wade good looks at the rim is pretty key. Granted, Dallas had Tyson Chandler.

by Nickel Rover on Jun 30, 2025 8:41 PM CDT up reply actions

Zone perhaps makes more sense in the NBA than anywhere else...

where there seems to be less emphasis on offensive rebounding, and more on getting back on D. Zone can help reduce fouling.

I don’t know if it really will work any better than man to man. At all other levels that don’t involve kids younger than 12 (maybe 16 for girls), zones don’t seem to be as effective. The rebounding problems they create seem to really hurt. With little kids, they are effective, because the kids aren’t usually strong enough to throw skip passes, don’t really understand how to attack it, and struggle with shooting. Also, offensive rebounding rates are pretty high for little kids with all sorts of defenses.

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by Reggieball on Jun 29, 2025 8:35 PM CDT up reply actions

Works for syracuse

and it works in international basketball. Didn’t Greece take us down playing zone?

This is obviously irrelevant, but if you ever unleash a 2-3 zone in streetball you can completely dominate.

by Nickel Rover on Jun 30, 2025 8:43 PM CDT up reply actions

Syracuse Defense

From my database, here are how Syracuse’s opponents shot, and how frequently ’Cuse blocked shots from each location:

Shot Type    % of shots         FG%	% Blocked       Unblocked FG%
At Rim	         31.00% 	56.00%	   20.00%	     70.00%
2pt Jumpers	 32.00%	        30.00%	   12.00%	     35.00%
3pt Shots        36.00%	        31.00%      3.00%	     32.00%

I don’t know that zone does much to reduce shots at the rim. Syracuse doesn’t reduce them to particularly low levels. Neither did Louisville, who also played a lot of zone this year.

Looking at Syracuse’s defense, we do see some of what can make a zone successful. You really need someone (preferably multiple players) who can block shots. Syracuse and Louisville both did a good job of blocking shots at the rim (Louisville blocked 15% of the attempts at the rim this season). If you have a good shot blocker, zone probably helps them out. Although Kansas and Kentucky were also able to block plenty of shots without playing much zone.

At the college level, I can’t think of any examples of good zone defenses where there wasn’t at least one serious shot blocker in the middle. (Please point some out, I would be interested to look into them.) If you aren’t blocking shots, then what exactly are you getting out of your zone defense? The extra offensive rebounds that you will allow get expensive.

On the plus side, zone teams tend to foul less. But I would rather foul more, and be better at defensive rebounding.

If you can force a lot of turnovers or block enough shots to lower your opponent’s eFG%, zone is fine. I don’t really know international basketball, so it is hard for me to comment on Greece.

I am on Twitter @jeffchaley
Burnt Orange Nation
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by Reggieball on Jul 1, 2025 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions

Quick addition, for context

On average, about 10% of all attempts at the rim are blocked. So Syracuse’s 20% is really good.

I am on Twitter @jeffchaley
Burnt Orange Nation
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by Reggieball on Jul 1, 2025 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions

Types of shots allowed

My thinking on the benefits of zone is that it allows fewer shots at the rim and encourages long 2 pt jumpers, which are the worst common shot in basketball.

If you have a good shot blocker or help defenders it should be highly effective at stopping penetration.
This is all theoretical and I’ve had no reason to doubt it. If that’s not the case I’m pretty interested.

by Nickel Rover on Jul 4, 2025 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions

I’m a big Sheldon McClellan fan. Really curious to see what type of improvements he makes between Year 1 and Year 2. Definitely has a chance to be a first-round pick down the road.

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by tjarks on Jun 29, 2025 6:11 PM CDT reply actions

Pat Riley announced today that the Heat will Pick up the option

on Dexter Pittman’s contract — which means he gets a guaranteed 900,000 next year.

He needs to send Todd Wright a really good Christmas gift.

by srr50 on Jun 29, 2025 7:22 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs

Tom Izzo on NBA Draft

It’s sort of good for recruiting.

“Every kid that goes to the NBA benefits me enormously,” Izzo said. “If I get a kid going to the NBA right now, I’m sad to say, if you had to look at winning a national championship or sending a kid to the NBA, which would help your recruiting more? It would be the kid going to the NBA.”

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by Sailor Ripley on Jun 30, 2025 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions