Run To Daylight: Projecting the 2012 Texas Longhorn Defense

Scipio has some wisdom for you.

The above linked article penned by the venerable ScipioTex in the offseason preceding the 2009 season contains some very wisdom rich pearls pertaining to offseason projections and the fallacies of some of the conventional wisdom found in the preview magazines. I have been on a mission in the last two weeks to read all of the great posts the preceded my discovery of Barking Carnival in the offseason of 2010. My pilgrimage to the roots of Barking Carnival greatness led me to stumble upon this post, whereupon a great many epiphanies hit me about the upcoming season, particularly with regard to the Texas defense.

"What are you on about," you ask? Let me show you. Observe...

Scipio opines on the conventional wisdom regarding experience:

The second fallacy of fetishizing experience is the idea that it's equally valuable in all positions. It's not.

Look hard at: QB, OL, DB. All things being equal, the value of experience at QB, OL, DB is much greater than WR/TE, LB, DL, RB. Don't misinterpret this, dear internet buffoon: I'm not arguing that the other positions don't get better over time or that it's advisable to start four freshmen DL, I'm simply pointing out that there are certain positions that consistently allow improvement by leaps and bounds with skill development, unit cohesion, and physical confidence.

So true, so true. Let's look at DB. From last year's secondary we lose exactly one starter. It's Blake Gideon. Gideon had his role- we may feel his absence a tad when it comes to coachonthefieldyness- but we're not losing Earl Thomas again. The projected starters in the defensive backfield we do return consists of certifiable badass Kenny Vaccaro (Senior), budding badass Adrian Phillips (Junior), super athletic Mykkele "Y2K" Thompson (Sophomore), Lord of the Corner Carrington Byndom (Junior), and super precocious Quandre the Giant (Sophomore).

We also have pretty amazing depth in some other sophomores like Leroy Scott, Sheroid Evans, and Josh Turner.

I can name a half dozen All-American level DBs at Texas who were hard to watch early in their careers (Richard, Huff, Griffin, soon to be Earl Thomas) only to blossom into elite talents with a little seasoning.

Funny, I don't remember too many of our returning starters being particularly difficult to watch last year. Emeril hit them with his patented creole blend pretty early on in the season. You can't even really blame them for the OU fiasco. So, yeah, I think this unit will have a delightfully spicy kick to it in 2012.

For a team to make a jump above expectation they need an individual, a unit, or a new coordinator/scheme to take it to the next level.

As for unit catalysts, look hardest at the defense - particularly a young one that took lumps, made a lot of mental errors in the passing game, and returns their DBs. That was Florida last year.

I don't remember a huge number of mental errors being committed by our defensive backs, so all the better. Watch out 2012 big 12 QB's. And we haven't even talked about the DL yet.

Again...

All things being equal, the value of experience at QB, OL, DB is much greater than WR/TE, LB, DL, RB.

We lose only Kheeston Randall from the DL. He will be missed, but hot damn do we return and bring in an embarrassment of riches on the DL. Again, watch out big 12 QB's. Go ahead and get yourselvs one of those hemorrhoid donuts, because you'll be spending a lot of time on your ass in 2012. Unless, of course, you just panic and throw the ball up for grabs by one of our well seasoned DB's. Either way, it will be fun for us to watch.

Also, in the not so dependent on experience list we see Linebacker. This is the defensive unit that suffers the greatest loss of experienced starters with the departure of Emmanuel Acho and Keenan Robinson. I guess we'll just have to make due with five star Jordan Hicks, Steve Edmond, Tevin Jackson, and Demarco Cobbs. Oh woe to us.

Backtracking a tad...

For a team to make a jump above expectation they need an individual, a unit, or a new coordinator/scheme to take it to the next level.

Hi!

via grfx.cstv.com

We already saw the evidence of Manny's scheme taking our defense to the next level by way of the trajectory of improvement over the course of the 2011 season. It became clear toward the end of the season that the schemes were taking root in the players minds- something clicked- and they were beginning to act on instinct within the scheme rather than question whether they were doing the right thing, uncertainty which creates that split second of hesitation during which a receiver can blow by to open field or a running back can make a cut and zip past. Once that split second of uncertainty was eliminated, they began attacking with aggression and confidence. They were mercenaries. If you were to hit reset at the OU game when we started playing offenses that weren't hopeless, the trend line created by tracking forced turnovers throught the season- with the outlier that is Robert Griffin, III removed- demonstrates a sudden upshoot during the last quarter of the season to 4 and then 5 forced turnovers per game after hovering around 0.8 forced turnovers per game from OU to KSU (I tried to post an excel line chart showing the trend which showed up in the preview but disappeared when I published. Any tips?). And it's not as if we ended the season playing hopeless offenses. ATM and Cal came into their respective games with potent offenses which were not unusually turnover prone. Then they got Diazed. Obviously this upward trajectory has to flatten out somewhere, but I'll be surprised if it doesn't hover around 4 forced turnovers per game throughout the 2012 season with, perhaps, a couple of outliers.

Call me a homer, but I think a lot of people underestimate just how dominating our defense is going to be next year. It's going to the next level. It's going to 11.

via ww2.hdnux.com