The Thunder's Long-Term Dilemma

by tjarks on Apr 6, 2025 2:47 PM CDT in Texas Longhorns and Other Basketball

Mar. 27, 2012; Portland, OR, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder small forward Kevin Durant (35) celebrates with point guard Russell Westbrook (0) after Westbrook hit a three point shot during the fourth quarter of the game against the Portland Trail Blazers at the Rose Garden. Westbrook scored 32 points as the Thunder won the game 109-95. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-US PRESSWIRE

The Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the top 3 teams in the NBA, with one of the top players at four different positions: PG (age 23), SG (age 22), SF (age 23) and PF (age 22).

There's only one problem, as I get into in an article over at RealGM:

With the development of Serge Ibaka and James Harden to go along with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, the Oklahoma City Thunder have become one of the best teams in the NBA. The bad news? They're not going to be able to pay all of them.

This is the downside of the owners insistence on parity (read: saving themselves from their own incompetence by creating a system which drags the best teams back to the pack). Apparently it's in the best interest of the league to break up one of the most exciting young teams to come around in a long time.

The Miami Heat, after paying three players near max salaries, have a payroll of $80 million this season. With the prohibitive cost of luxury tax penalties in the new CBA, the math just doesn't add up for Oklahoma City to be able to pay James Harden the max and Serge Ibaka $60 million plus.

That leaves three questions:

1) Should the Thunder just hang on to both and go all-in on a title run in 2013?

2) If they only keep one, should it be Ibaka or Harden?

3) What's the best return they could get for the one they don't keep?

Here's my reasoning:

If there aren't any surprises in the lottery, the Portland Trail Blazers will have picks #7 and #12 while the Utah Jazz will have #9 and #14. Both teams would probably jump at the chance to pair Harden with the young big men they already have. From there, given how deep the 2012 draft is and the Thunder's impressive draft history, they could set themselves up with two big talents on cost-controlled contracts for the next four years.

There's something to be said for going all in next season, but in three years, Dwyane Wade will be 33, Chris Bosh will be 31 and LeBron James will be 30. Durant and Westbrook will still only be 26. Your mileage may vary on how important that is.

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Read More: Chris Bosh (F - MIA), LeBron James (F - MIA), Dwyane Wade (G - MIA), Kevin Durant (F - OKC), Russell Westbrook (G - OKC), Serge Ibaka (F - OKC), James Harden (G - OKC), Oklahoma City Thunder

Comments

Good post.

The downside is that Utah and Portland are both conference and division rivals. Is there no one in the East they can make a deal with to get value?

It pains me that they’ll likely have to deal Harden - he’s probably the best 2nd best 2 guard in the entire Western conference, but I can understand the reasoning with respect to Ibaka’s cheaper price tag and upside.

I guess this all boils down to whether or not they believe Ibaka can develop a better offensive game.

by Scipio Tex on Apr 6, 2025 3:09 PM CDT reply actions

That’s a good point.

Portland w/Aldridge, Batum + Harden and Utah w/Favors, Kanter, Hayward + Harden would both be pretty formidable teams. There’s no one in the East w/2 lottery picks though, and the potential win (I think) is worth creating a new conference rival.

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by tjarks on Apr 6, 2025 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions

In terms of Utah/Portland, how does

Harden+Perkins+Nick Collison + 2011 first and second rounders for Aldridge+Greg Oden’s corpse sound?

Portland between Harden Perk and Collison shores up their O and D so they’re not relying on Raymond Felton for anything, and they’ll have an army of bigs to pair with a legit #1 player (Harden)

Also, would Sacramento consider a straight-up Harden for Cousins trade and rid themselves of the headache?

Beyond that, there’s almost no way you’re getting 100 cents on the dollar for a player of Harden’s value.

Also interesting to note, Basketball reference has HArden as a better Offensive player (O rating) and equal defensive player (D rating) versus Westbrook

Marcel Darius better watch his back in 2010

by vin2basketball on Apr 7, 2025 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions

You never trade big for small in the NBA. If you look at in terms of Bill Simmons’ trade value chart, Aldridge would be a top 10 player. Cousins is a little different b/c of his off-the-court stuff, but I think Sacramento would pass as well. He had a 41/12 game the other night.

Agree that your not getting 100 cents on the dollar in dealing Harden for current players, not with his level of production in the salary slot they’re paying him. To get equal value, you’d have to sign and trade and take a bunch of money back, which would eliminate the whole point of dealing him in the first place. That’s why I think you have to deal him for picks.

Westbrook is such a plus athlete that his defensive upside is higher than Harden’s; it’s just a matter of him checking in mentally on a nightly basis. OKC has consistently surpassed expectations so far, if they don’t win a title this year that will change, which could do wonders for Westbrook’s growth as a player.

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by tjarks on Apr 7, 2025 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions

I will grow a Hardenbeard

in protest!

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by Sailor Ripley on Apr 6, 2025 3:23 PM CDT reply actions

Harden or Ibaka

They aren’t likely to find either of them in the draft or open market, that’s a tough loss.
Shooting guards who can run your offense like Harden are exceptionally rare right now, only Ginobili and Wade are currently better and both are older and less healthy.

On the other hand, PF’s as good as Ibaka are hard to find as well. You could argue that they’re both more rare than either Durant or Westbrook, if not as spectacular.

I guess you keep Ibaka because he’s more likely to maintain his play over time and perhaps the current 2-guard drought sees a monsoon. Easier to find an overlooked guard in the draft or Free Agency than finding an overlooked big.

Trade Harden for picks after the season and see what comes up. Or trade Westbrook and resign Harden, that’s what I’d do.

by Nickel Rover on Apr 6, 2025 4:08 PM CDT reply actions

Yea, if this OKC team could stay together for the next five years, they’d have a chance to be something really special historically. Harden vs. Westbrook would be a very interesting debate, but the Thunder effectively made their decision when they gave Westbrook the max deal.

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by tjarks on Apr 6, 2025 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions

But...

assume a playoff exit before a championship this year where Westbrook shoots the ball 4x more per game than Durant (all of which is about 60% likely to happen).

I think they could deal Westbrook to one of those teams or another suitor and it would make perfect sense for the organization from competitive and media perspective.

by Nickel Rover on Apr 6, 2025 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions

harden and ibaka aren't worth that much

harden the max? that’s not happening. no chance. he’ll get a big deal though for sure.

as for ibaka, he’s probably more of a risk for the max. some team always comes along to throw way too much money at a young big man.

if you can’t keep everyone, you dump westbrook.

if you have to choose between harden and ibaka, you keep harden because he’s going to be the guy who is paid closer to his actual value, while ibaka will definitely be overpaid.

by Timmy Teat on Apr 6, 2025 5:31 PM CDT reply actions

Numbers:

By wins produced:
Durant has produced 10 wins
Westbrook has produced 4.72
Harden: 9.07
Ibaka: 8.17

Next 2 best are Sefolosha and Collison. Ibaka isn’t just a long term project, he’s already very good. The Thunder don’t dominate because Durant is the new Jordan, it’s because Durant is very good and so are 3 of his teammates.

The Thunder’s success in the draft has resulted in them having more franchise players than you can possibly accumulate in free agency.

by Nickel Rover on Apr 6, 2025 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions

didn’t mean to suggest they weren’t good players, just not worth the max and 60+ mil price tag attached to them in the post.

if they give harden the max and ibaka 60 mil, they’re making a mistake. if they believe that mistake will still lead them to multiple titles, might be worth it anyway i guess.

by Timmy Teat on Apr 7, 2025 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions

Another thing is you have to look at Harden’s opportunities. He only has a 21.3 usage rating this season. If he had the opportunity to be the primary offensive option, like say Joe Johnson in Atlanta (25.1 usage rating), his stats would be higher.

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by tjarks on Apr 7, 2025 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions

They're both 22

is the thing, so the expectation is that each could get better, maybe significantly so. Harden just emerged as the player he is today in the playoffs last year, Ibaka could hypothetically become a much better offensive player and he’s only going to get smarter and better positioned on defense with several athletic prime seasons left.

And they’re both possibly in the league’s top 20 now.

by Nickel Rover on Apr 7, 2025 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions

If push came to shove I would keep Harden over Westbrook.

I hate shoot first PGs and Harden is not that. He’s not even a shoot first 2-Guard.

Of course this probably has a lot do with my own selfish reasons. I usually judge NBA players, especially PGs, on whether or not I would like to play with them. The first on the list is Ason Kidd. I loved me some Kidd back when he came in the league.

Sad story here. My dad got us tickets to see the Mavs play the Sonics. I was so excited to see my favorite player Kidd. The game happened to be the first game after he was traded to the Suns for Sam Cassell and Michael Finley among others. I was bummed!

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by 2Cor12:9 on Apr 6, 2025 6:15 PM CDT reply actions

Would it make it any easier to keep Harden and Ibak

if they dumped Perkins?

by Harry Garcia on Apr 7, 2025 12:20 AM CDT reply actions

Not really. If your paying four guys 60 mil+ annually, you’re going into luxury tax if the other eight guys on your roster are all making the minimum.

Also, you still need Perkins in a match-up with Andrew Bynum. Ibaka just isn’t thick enough to keep Bynum from posting up right at the front of the rim.

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by tjarks on Apr 7, 2025 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions

Dropping Perkins

would be nice. He just isn’t that great. I’m of the opinion that they could find another body to throw at Bynum easily enough.
Bynum vs. Thunder’s Center is just going to be a rough mismatch unless they strike gold in the draft because they dealt one of the players in question in this post.

by Nickel Rover on Apr 7, 2025 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions

Perkins got dominated by (Marc) Gasol and Z Randolph

in last year’s playoff series with the Grizzlies.

by Harry Garcia on Apr 7, 2025 9:48 PM CDT up reply actions

Since leaving Boston

Perkins has quickly declined. Not sure if that was a result of playing with Garnett, under Thibodeau, or what but he just hasn’t been that good.

by Nickel Rover on Apr 8, 2025 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions

I think there is a pretty good argument for going all in for 2013...

and then resigning one of them. (Probably Ibaka.) Flags fly forever, as they say, and those draft picks that you would trade Harden for are not a sure thing. An extra shot at the title with the four of them is probably worth the risk.

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by Reggieball on Apr 7, 2025 7:53 PM CDT reply actions

Really

They should just trade Westbrook and use Harden at the point. It works better anyway. Sure, Russel is a great guard, but he’s not a point guard.

TEXAS FIGHT

by Darklust on Apr 8, 2025 7:18 AM CDT reply actions

It is easier to find a Harden than it is an Ibaka

Scoring 2 guards are out there. Athletic 4’s who keep improving but don’t cost a max contract are much harder to find. Wes Mathews (for Portland) is a perfect example of a guy that could replace Harden’s 15 points and lead the second unit.

by everybodygodeep on Apr 10, 2025 11:12 AM CDT reply actions

I think Thunder can still retain both Harden and Ibaka

Hi Jonathan, love your articles. I want to make an argument for this article.
1. Luxury tax for 2013-2014 season will be higher than current one. Stern estimates it to be around 75 M.
2. With 75 M luxury salary tax, maximum salary for Harden and Ibaka will be around 13.8 for 2013-2014 season.
3. If Westbrook makes all nba team this year (very likely), Thunder can give him 30% salary cap next year, which will lower his salary for the next 4 years.
4. If Harden gets max salary and Ibaka slighly less than max salary, Thunder will have around 66M for 5 players (Durant, Ibaka, Westbrook, Perkins and Harden). I dont think Thunder will pay luxury tax.

by gavingary on Apr 11, 2025 4:45 AM CDT reply actions