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Texas Longhorns Interior Defensive Line: The Chris Whaley & Brandon Moore Pairing

Granted that Ashton Dorsey and Desmond Jackson are likely to receive plenty of snaps next year so it's silly to make too much of Chris Whaley and Brandon Moore being listed as starters, but I'd like to tackle why they would be paired together and at their respective positions.

Most of us looked at the depth chart and were shocked to find Whaley and Moore on the 1st team at all. In the spring game I thought Dorsey and Tank looked much further along in playing with good pad level against the running game, and they comprised the first team tackle unit which suggested that Davis and Diaz thought the same.

The 2nd shock came at the position designations: "Whaley as Nose-tackle? I thought Moore was brought here specifically to play the nose and replace Randall?

Star-divide


We can only assume that Whaley and Moore have come along far enough in conditioning and technique that they are now the 2 best players for what we want our DT's to do on a regular basis, I haven't been there at practice and I don't necessarily trust all the reports we get from people who are. At least on line play. Last year Trey Hopkins was "a match for Alex Okafor" pretty much as soon as he moved to Right Tackle. He then went on to not be a match for virtually any of the better ends in the conference.

However, given what we know about the Diaz defense and these players' attributes, I think we can understand why they are being positioned where they are.

Diaz usually aligns his front like this:

........................0 Q

.............0....................................................................0

0....................0.0.0.0.0.........................0

C..................E.T...N...E.............................................C

...................W...........M.......................N

.............SS........................................FS

That took far longer than I would have guessed (finally fixed!)

Anyways, the nose tackle is usually aligned to the wider "field side" of the formation. Why? Because on runs to the boundary the nickel is going to have to fill the space between the "N" and the "E" from all the way out there by the slot receiver. If Texas lined up the 3 tech, represented here as "T", on the field side then that's one more gap over that the nickel would have to come fill. That actually makes a big difference, especially since OL often use wide splits, because fighting across the wash to get across one more gap makes a big cutback running crease more likely. And the most commonly used running play in the league, the Zone, is targeting those backside gaps for the cutback.

To put it another way, each gap between offensive lineman is assigned a letter. The 2 gaps on either side of the Center are called the "A" gaps, the 2 gaps between the guards and the tackles, "B" gaps, so on and so forth.

The nickel fills the "C" gap on runs that come to his side of the field. If the offense runs the ball in the other direction he has to come and fill a backside gap. If the nose is on his side, that's the B gap. If Texas lines up a 3-tech defensive tackle on his side, he has to fill the A gap. For run support purposes, you prefer he take the B gap.

So that's a basic introduction into what we're doing there, so why is Whaley the better fit at nose and Moore the 3-tech?

Consider a zone play run to the field side, the offense wants the play side guard to be able to reach that "M" (the middle linebacker...try to keep up ;) ), and if they do it becomes more difficult to prevent the running back from finding a crease right through the B gap.

On "Power-O", the guard and the center double team the nose and try to drive him off the ball so that one of them can reach the "W" and cut him off in his pursuit of the ball.

On the zone runs, a great nose will require that playside guard to double team him with the center and fail to displace him quickly, enabling the Mike to get there in a hurry and either make the tackle or force the running back to bounce outside where the defense's pursuit is coming to get him.

On Power-O, he doesn't have to force the double team, it's going to come by design, but he needs to get low and get into the A-gap quick before the guard and center get their hands on him and out leverage him with their 2-1 weight advantage.

And of course, teams are always throwing outside runs, the bubble screen, and quick passes out to "field side" where shifty WR's and backs have room to make people miss. In these instances, the defense needs the nose to be a useful pursuit player who can run laterally with a play.

You sensing a theme? While the nose will need to draw and engage double teams fairly often, he needs to be laterally quick. This is just in the base defense, in the endless Fire Zones and stunts Diaz uses we'll want that player to loop or slant into another gap. This isn't a Saban 2-gap nose tackle who is trying to dominate the center or guard and insert himself into gaps, a Diaz nose-tackle is a different breed of athlete.

Meanwhile, a team will always want to double the defensive tackle on the playside of a run, so Moore's large size and strength will not be wasted as a 3-tech. Consider also, when Whaley and Edmond are stunting into gaps, which is going to happen on a regular basis, it'll be nice to have a solid and unmoved space eater on the other side of the line to consume a running back who is forced into the cutback lane.

One interesting thing here that I can't necessarily account for is that the 3-tech is well-positioned as a pass-rusher whereas the nose is not. What's Moore (see what I did there?), a good pass-rusher at the 3-tech means that whichever end is positioned alongside him (it will depend, our ends don't align to field and boundary) will be harder to block in pass protection.

This begs the question, how is Moore coming along in his pass-rush? On 3rd down we can substitute whatever players we want on the DL to achieve a pass-rush but on 1st and 2nd down against WVU will Moore be on the field? Has he become a good pass-rusher?

What I would guess from these designations is that Moore is doing better and better at playing with good pad level for a 6'5" behemoth but he may not necessarily be a pass-rusher yet. If he's not totally there, we can easily rotate him to keep him fresh (pass-rushing is largely an exercise in stamina) while subbing him out when the situation calls for someone better in that department. Ultimately for our defense, having a pass-rush from the 3-tech is a luxury because we are ridiculously strong in the pass-rush at every other position on the field and employ the Fire Zone so much.

Most exciting is that this suggests about Whaley's development. We can conclude with reasonable certainty that he is playing with good leverage and as a result his freakish quicks are translating into major problems for the offensive line in keeping him out of the backfield and climbing past him to reach Edmond with good leverage...which is a must. Teams are not going to be able to block Edmond without good angles, he's too powerful.

Whatever the case, you can be sure that Diaz will be blitzing A LOT this year with our abundance of DB talent and our fantastic athleticism at Nose, End, and the 2 linebacker spots. Teams will have to adjust their gameplans to account for the Fire Zone or they won't be able to survive the negative plays that occur as a result of the linebackers flying into the backfield.

Any questions on the front or positions?

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this is great.

I actually was in this exact discussion yesterday with some folks. I think you hit on several key points: the physical dominance at the 3 tech makes it harder to get productive combos at the point of attack and makes it impossible to run to the boundary without dealing with Moore. I expect we will also see Moore between the guards as well just as we saw with Randall last year but in our base front he’ll be a 3. Whaley at nose is exciting for what is means as far as his progress and the implications for how we are building around Moore with Whaley and Edmond. When you look at the 3 of them together you’ve got a rock with two heat seekers and it bodes for a very aggressive approach on schedule downs.

On passing downs I think we will see even more tinkering with primarily stand up pass rushers in the front. Moore will be used as a crosser who draws protection and pushes it sideways to open up the inside lanes for the other inside blitzers to find in the second wave while the outside rush expands the space that the entire protection has to cover exasperating the problems for the interior protectors.

by LonghornScott on Aug 24, 2025 12:19 PM CDT reply actions  

I noticed

we actually like to stand up and stack the DE’s some on 3rd to confuse their trajectory. Okafor is a great interior blitzer because of his strength/speed skillset, just guessing but I bet 2 or 3 of his sacks came on interior stunts.

The triangle of Edmond-Moore-Whaley is pretty exciting. We’ve got 2 years of this.

by Nickel Rover on Aug 24, 2025 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

Great explanation

Think a lot of people here “Nose Tackle” and automatically assume he is akin to a 3-4 NT.

Also agree that this is a huge view into Whaley’s development

by armsch on Aug 24, 2025 12:22 PM CDT reply actions  

3-4 NT

exactly. Tommie Harris played some nose at Oklahoma, so did McCoy, it’s not the same position.

by Nickel Rover on Aug 24, 2025 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

I mean

in OU or UT’s defense it’s not the same. Harris and McCoy were prototype 3-techs for the NFL game but they got a lot of time inside at OU.

by Nickel Rover on Aug 24, 2025 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yup

I get all ornery and upset when people get overly fixated on labels like that.

In a game of multiple/shifting alignments, even concepts like base defenses (base 4-3 or 3-4 etc) tend to dictate personnel packages more so than what each of those persons will be doing. The old days of the Bill Parcells 3 “planetary humans” bashing into the OL so that LT/Carl Banks/Harry Carson could roam free/clean up the mess have evolved.

I remember back when I used to read TMQ reading Gregg Easterbrook making the incredibly lazy argument that Bruce Smith > Reggie White because he was a 3/4 end for a number of years rather than a 4/3 end…..as if it actually mattered.

Bruce Smith lined up outside the left tackle on the passer on pretty much every single down he played, other than obvious running downs – as well he should have been, because he was great at it – while Cornelius Bennett rushed from the other end as a nominal LB. Daryl Talley who usually played on Bruce’s side handled coverage responsibilities. Pretty much identical to what any 4-3 DE would do, in other words, and it doesn’t take a genius to figure that out.

by Dreadful on Aug 24, 2025 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

Bruce Smith lined up outside the left tackle on the passer

should read “Bruce Smith lined up outside the left tackleand rushed the passer”

by Dreadful on Aug 24, 2025 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

Easterbrook knows...

less about the Xs and Os of football than my 12 year old. By a wide margin.

But that makes sense, since Easterbrook is a sports writer. It is virtually mandatory for them to be almost totally ignorant of the strategy involved in the sports they cover.

"If God dwells inside us like some people say, I sure hope He likes enchiladas, because that's what He's getting."

by RedmondLonghorn on Aug 24, 2025 7:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

The Xs and Os boggle what's left of my gray matter.

But the words and analysis and comments to your post, NR, teach me more football than the silly TV gadgetry.

Glad somebody tackled (hmmm) the DT alignment. My first thought when I saw the depth chart was that the scribe might have flipped the positional designations of Moore and Whaley.

More critically, I have to think both are dramatically improved over what they were in March.

I can’t imagine that Jackson has regressed; he’s supposed to be the best lifter of the bunch. And Dorsey seemed to be the perfect — veteran, most game experienced — of the foursome at tackle (not counting, at least not yet, MB2).

If Jackson and Dorsey have been beaten out of starting jobs, we might be as improved at defensive tackle as any area on the team.

by edsp on Aug 24, 2025 12:43 PM CDT reply actions  

I liked Jackson last year

I thought he would be great at the things I describe Whaley doing. Dorsey seemed like the most likely candidate to be the next great DT. He was really solid last year already.

It’s a little troubling that they don’t seem to have improved enough to hold onto their starting roles from the spring BUT Whaley and Moore have such high ceilings that their improvement outweighs it if Dorsey and Tank have plateaued.

by Nickel Rover on Aug 24, 2025 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

I interpret these DT depth chart moves as positives

In other words, Moore and Whaley beat out good players. Exactly what you want in a real program.

by Scipio Tex on Aug 24, 2025 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

agreed

rumor was Whaley ran a 4.7 at 290 LBs. The guy is a freak. If he plays up to his physical ability, there are very few people who will beat him out. I do not think it is a knock on Jackson. Just a more gifted athlete making things happen

by codaxx on Aug 24, 2025 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

You beat me to this post. Nice job.

I was a bit confused at first, but then I thought it through just like you did. I also think Whaley on the field at NT tells us quite a bit about how we’re going to play Steve Edmond, which is precisely what frees Whaley to be a pass rushing force, and a backside terror against the zone read sprinting past OL trying to reach him. Edmond is an instinctive run blitzer, but he also flows well and holding up at the point of attack isn’t a problem when a RB cuts back on us. Moore holds the line play side like a block soaking monster, our DEs are too good to be bullied and will prevent a short corner, and Hicks and Vaccaro get to play clean up (and Diaz has already instructed them on where their likely run force will be) if we don’t inflict a tackle for loss early.

Similarly, passing downs – most protections have numbers favoring the interior OL and the center gets a lot of help. If you give up pressure, you want to give it up late and from outside. Whaley coming off of the ball hard through a gap with Edmond running off of his ass creates some issues. Not to mention 6-5 Moore, 6-5 Jeffcoat, 6-5 Okafor all posted in passing windows and guys like Vaccaro, Hicks, Phillips, Cobbs all adept blitzers or coverage guys.

I see Diaz’s thinking this way: we’re addressing the running game with a high potential for inflicting negative plays without giving up soundness while If teams want to attack us with the short passing game early in a possession, we’re going to put quick middle pressure on them with Whaley/Edmond. If they want to run, we’ve got a decent shot at putting them in 2nd and 11. If they want to hold on to the ball and try their luck downfield, we’ll roll the dice on our secondary and pass rush vs their wide receivers and protection.

Like a lot of Diaz’s philosophy, he’s trying to force turnovers and negative plays with minimal exposure and risk. It’s a really interesting personnel pairing and we can do versions of it with Jackson/Dorsey/Brown, too.

by Scipio Tex on Aug 24, 2025 12:45 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

fantastic addendum

The height thing is another big point I didn’t think of. Watching some of our anti-spread games I noticed that Diaz likes to treat the quick passing game with interior pressure and filling throwing lanes with large men.

Fire Zones with 3DL plus Edmond and another backer are going to be really nasty and very basic to what we do this year. We’ll see what Wyoming makes of it. They won’t be blitzes that we “save” for OU, they’ll be standard play calls that you’ll just have to execute against, like our base 2-read defense.

Remaining questions: How are we against screens? How are we at linebacker against the quick game? Some of these also play into: How often will we stick with 3 LB’s and how often will we go to nickel?

by Nickel Rover on Aug 24, 2025 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think we play 3 LBs against any conventional O grouping

I don’t think we’ll get cute. Beyond that, it really depends on whether Diaz regards Cobbs as a legitimate cover guy. Not just “good for a LB” cover guy but a legit dude. Obviously, if someone is in four wide, we’ll be in at least a nickel, if not dime.

by Scipio Tex on Aug 24, 2025 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

Where's the Scipio-Nickel Rover-LHS podcast when you need it?

If this interchange, along with the one with Longhorn Scott above, doesn’t scream a need for an X’s and O’s podcast by you three, I don’t know what would. While most of us get a little lost in the terminology, we appreciate the glimpses into a level of genius that contemplates these sorts of things like we contemplate which color of socks to wear with our sandals. Thanks for allowing us to tag along and I can’t wait for the game breakdowns once the real action starts.

by TexasWright on Aug 24, 2025 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Agreed and rec'd

Its discourse like this that makes BC and BON unrivaled in the Texas Blog-o-sphere. Even paysites do more basic reporting than analysis, which is minimal at best.

I consider myself quite lucky to have stumbled on BON and BC back in 2008.

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by kriess on Aug 24, 2025 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

thanks

for reading our stuff.

by Nickel Rover on Aug 24, 2025 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

good timing on the complementary pass rush and passing windows

I’ll be posting some film examples of exactly what you are describing later today once I get home and have a chance do a final render on the video.

by LonghornScott on Aug 24, 2025 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

I should add

That as an offense I’d attack this alignment by blocking out on Moore, doubling Whaley playside, leading with a fullback, and trying to bully us out of there. Presumably, Whaley has shown the ability to handle a double team and Edmond is probably going to run through most fullbacks trying to lead on him like a Homecoming sign.

by Scipio Tex on Aug 24, 2025 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

Fullback?

Hahahahaha, I like you.

I think teams that don’t major in “misdirection running game” are going to struggle to find good answers. I can’t help but think that Diaz was thinking of OU’s “stretch to the boundary with Millard leading” when he decided to plant Moore as 3-tech. They hit a 30-60 yarder on almost everyone with that last year.

by Nickel Rover on Aug 24, 2025 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

well, Ikard moved to center

and he was very solid last year, although not a pile driver and not as strong as Habern according to the Crimson and Cream guys. The new guards are an upgrade in torque, but they may have some real trouble with our stunts and blitzes from a mental standpoint, even though they see similar stuff in practice.
If they take an injury they’ll be in big trouble.

Not totally sure what to make of that offense. They get KSU before they play us. If they can’t run on KSU they’ll be in big trouble.

by Nickel Rover on Aug 24, 2025 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

No concerns here with Jeffcoat's size and coming off the injury?
our DEs are too good to be bullied and will prevent a short corner

by Horncasting on Aug 24, 2025 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

Assume not

He’s always been so technically proficient that it’s hard to bully him, even with his upper body lacking some old muscle.

Hook 'em! @michaelpelech10 on Twitter

by The Audit Horn on Aug 24, 2025 3:51 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Love the in depth analysis...

..specially for X’s and O’s morons like myself.

Do you think that Whaley and Moore being tabbed starters for Week 1 was in some way related to our opponent being Wyoming? I mean, does Wyoming do something specific with their offense that would make these two more effective, thus them being the first two in the game? Further, do you think it likely to change depending on what the opponent does best from week to week?

Thanks again for this stuff. Best analysis on the web is found here.

by ophorn on Aug 24, 2025 1:49 PM CDT reply actions  

Wyoming

is a fairly standard spread team. Their run game is mostly the full range of inside zone, including Zone-read. They have a legitimate running threat QB.
It might be one of the better run games we’ll see, just because the QB can keep it and do damage. Their head coach was the OC at Missouri during the Chase Daniel era.

The things that would worry me about our run D: gap integrity, good fundamentals, etc, will be tested perhaps more by Wyoming than some others.

So I think this is the starting front we would expect to see on a weekly basis save for when we use other packages.

by Nickel Rover on Aug 24, 2025 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

Overstreet as scout team QB

Should help with our preparation. Also, not having Dravannti Johnson at OLB/DE might help.

Hook 'em! @michaelpelech10 on Twitter

by The Audit Horn on Aug 24, 2025 2:56 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Question about when we go nickel

Do we go 3-3 or 4-2? I don’t know the gap assignments and alingnments, but it seems Edmond would be a de facto DL when stacked wth Whaley at NT. Playing 3 LBs gives us the option to drop 10 different players into coverage, and have any of the 11 players as a stand up rusher.

Hook 'em! @michaelpelech10 on Twitter

by The Audit Horn on Aug 24, 2025 1:53 PM CDT reply actions  

Edmond, Cobbs, and Hicks

present some pretty interesting options. I guess it depends on how good they turn out to be this year.
We could do a 3-3-5 with Edmond as “de-facto 3-tech” by crashing him into the line every play, or we could play nickel with the LB’s in different spots and keep 4 DL on the field.
A 4-2 with Vaccaro as nickel, Hicks as Mike, and Cobbs as Will is pretty rangy.

Options are fairly endless because we have a lot of versatile guys. For that reason, we’ll probably do all of them, create confusion.

by Nickel Rover on Aug 24, 2025 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

Where does Malcom Brown's skill set project?

Based on the description, it sounds like NT?

"If God dwells inside us like some people say, I sure hope He likes enchiladas, because that's what He's getting."

by RedmondLonghorn on Aug 24, 2025 2:18 PM CDT reply actions  

either

that dude can do whatever he wants.

by Nickel Rover on Aug 24, 2025 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

Whaley is special...

The kid is just a specimen. He might have the best feet on the entire D-line. Once his strength and hand placement got where needed I figured it would be tough to keep him out of the starting lineup. Where other players have inched in their development, Whaley’s experienced a quantum leap. Lamarr Houston and Henry Melton were similar. You can’t coach great feet and athleticism at that position.

These are going to be the first 2 guys to trot out on the field at the position. But well all know Diaz will mix things up. I just love the combination of size and athletcism we have across the D line.

by Drew Kelson on Aug 24, 2025 2:31 PM CDT reply actions  

Houston and Melton are great examples

Can also add Marcus Tubbs (former 230 pound TE) and Mo Gordon (former 205 pound FB) to that mix. About that quantum leap – the athletic DT converts never seem to evolve steadily and arithmetically. It just seems like one day everything comes together skill wise with feet, hands, pad level, attitude and they realize that they’re much better athletes than the dudes tasked with blocking them.

by Scipio Tex on Aug 24, 2025 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

I could swear there was another RB to DE or DT in the Mack Brown era

But I’m drawing a blank right now. I believe he now works for Fox Sports during college football season.

by Horncasting on Aug 24, 2025 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

O.J.

McClintock. He played every position.

by Rollo Tomassi on Aug 24, 2025 3:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

Kindle went that route too

Although, the RB side was only icing on the cake.

Did you read my comment, or did you merely see that it disagreed and begin composing your response immediately? by BrooklynHorn

by run Bevo run on Aug 25, 2025 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions  

Tubbs is on the staff now, right?

Might be having some personal conversations with Whaley that can’t hurt.

Loved to watch Tubbs play.

by CMDR on Aug 24, 2025 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yes
Marcus Tubbs enters his first season as director of football operations after serving the last two as special assistant for player relations. It is his fourth overall after spending 2009 as football operations intern. In his current role, Tubbs helps manage all day-to-day operations of the program.

Link

by Horncasting on Aug 24, 2025 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

"Director of Football Operations"

Does that make him the new Freak Nasty?

by CMDR on Aug 24, 2025 3:27 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Tubbs

I saw Tubbs at a random Texas Rowing event one day. He must have been 290 lbs with about 12% body fat.

by jenx on Aug 24, 2025 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

I played basketball

against both Tubbs and Rogers in their freshman years. It was incredible to see the way they could move size wise.

by The General on Aug 24, 2025 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

Maybe we should continue to let Mack recruit RB's

I mean, it’s arguably much more important to find NFL caliber defensive tackles than good runningbacks.

by TheElusiveShadow on Aug 24, 2025 7:18 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Those are the two comps for Whaley

I was thinking about too. I think most were thinking he would get there by his senior year. Having him there now is just fantastic.

by Megatube on Aug 24, 2025 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

well, he might not be there quite yet

Though it is great that he is starting, I don’t know if he is at the level of Lamarr Houston yet. If I recall, Houston didn’t really blow up until a couple games into his senior year.

"If God dwells inside us like some people say, I sure hope He likes enchiladas, because that's what He's getting."

by RedmondLonghorn on Aug 24, 2025 7:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

Great post

Love learning the X’s and O’s. Thanks.

by whadyaknow on Aug 24, 2025 2:57 PM CDT reply actions  

Bo Davis

Is a witch.

And this article got me excite. Thanks!

by Alphahydro on Aug 24, 2025 3:51 PM CDT reply actions  

RE: OU attacking this

1. OU’s short passing game is their run game.
2. OU’s need to run will be to pick up 3rd and 1 or 2, when they’ll bring Belldozer in. Apparently, he’s competent throwing the ball now.
3. OU’s got a fullback now, Millard. Outside of Jones, he may be the most important player on the team because he’s efficient blocking, catching and running. OU will line him up at TE, in the slot, TB. I’d put bubble wrap on him for the first 3 games.
4. RE: OU’s OL depth. At OT, where 3 players will rotate and will likely be efficient against most teams. At C/G, their are 4 players, I don’t know the average # of starts lost for a college OL, but I imagine it’ll be on the order of ~ 10 (5 positions, 12 games, 60 slots). If those injuries are at OT, OU will lose efficiency quickly.
5. Great read. With, the Cyantist, Alphahydro’s laborious work, and this, it’s better than Cats and Grantland.

by Quigley on Aug 24, 2025 9:33 PM CDT reply actions  

OU

when “short passing” is the run game you have to be remarkably efficient. Like, Colt in 2008 efficient. No one is going to pile up points on this defense by sustaining drives in bits and chunks. We pile up TFL’s and we’re nearly a brick wall in the red zone.

If you can’t run the ball you have to find other ways to keep our ends and pass-rush from teeing off on Landry. Irwin and Shead might be stronger or more athletic guys than Haben and Evans but how do you feel about them handling stunts and Fire Zones from probably the most athletic front in the nation?

If OU can run the ball that makes everything so much easier.

Millard makes things interesting, he’s pretty unique in this league.

by Nickel Rover on Aug 25, 2025 5:57 AM CDT up reply actions  

I don’t think OU’s offense will be efficient overall vs. UT’s D. However, it will be more efficient than UT’s offense vs. OU’s D.

1. OU needs to have any combination to reach 3 scores covering > 60 yds (drives or big plays).
Last year, OU had 5 in the first 3 quarters.
UT’s offensive inefficiency will lead to 2 scores.
That equals ~ 28 points.

2. Agreed, offensive efficiency in the run or pass game is necessary. Based on the skills of the OU offense, I’d posit that OU is more likely achieve that efficiency in the pass game than in the run game. This is based on OU being a better pass blocking team and Jones’s efficiency on quick throws, with the caveat that Broyles isn’t on the other end.

3. Belldozer with new and improved passing features gives you your 3rd & 2 and red zone running.

Regarding OU’s offensive prowess vs. UT, speculation now will be rendered moot before Dallas. We’ll have lots of predictive data on how effective UT’s defense is vs. OU’s offense based on the WVU and OSU games. I look forward to your and LHS’s remarks. UT’s offense, however, will likely not face a defense like it will see in Dallas prior to that point.

by Quigley on Aug 25, 2025 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions  

actually we get OSU

in stillwater before we play you. They are pretty comparable to your defense both in style and in personnel quality. Also we have to play our own defense in practice. I don’t think handling the OU defense will be as much about “we haven’t seen anything like this before!” so much as just being able to execute against a well-coached and prepared cast of great athletes.
If OSU shuts us down, we’ll be quieter the week before the RRS, unless you guys have already choked one away.

Like most of the conference, OU’s strength is in the passing game, but that’s not where our weaknesses are on defense. If you don’t have someone like Broyles that can turn a hitch pass into a 40 yard gain, you aren’t going to score a lot of points on offense without serious help from your D. Not 20, even.

This isn’t the D you faced last year. I’ll be shocked if you convert a 3rd and 25, or get TD’s on secondary miscues that leave Stills alone in the end zone.

by Nickel Rover on Aug 25, 2025 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions  

I think you are over-estimating UT’s offensive advancement, OSU’s defense, and underestimating OU’s offense.

1. Last year, UT was incompetent at all 3 areas in the passing game: the blocker, the chuker, and the grabber. I’m assuming that the blog-o-rattzi would have uncovered monumental advances by the UT QB’s or WR. In the absence of this data, I’m left to assume that their will be an incremental advance towards competency by UT’s passing game. This is a key year for Harsin. UT’s offensive efficiency and Adj ppg need to climb to the ~ 50, and to do that, UT needs a competent passing game, going from ~ 100 to 70, no small feat. If that happens, UT is in every game this year, which wasn’t the case last year (see OU, Mizzou, and Baylor).

2. If OSU’s defense is as good as OU’s, I’d take the Pokes in Stillwater because I have more faith in the Cowboy offense with a frosh QB than UT’s.

3. Still and Finch man the slot for OU now and apparently a freshman is pressing them for time (Shepard). This is because Brown and Metoyer are outside and the backfield rotation is so crowded with Whaley, Williams, and Clay that Finch wasn’t going to get carries.

UT is getting there. For almost a decade OU-Texas was a match up of 2 teams with top O’s and D’s. UT’s O is the only thing holding it back right now. I see this year as a ~ 10 OU win, 27 – 17 before the games are played because I feel UT offense is the weakest squad, by far. Both OU (K-St) and UT (OSU, WVU) will have predictive tests prior to Dallas this year so I reserve my right to change the prediction based on how OU stands up to a competent running game, UT’s fire zones match up with Hologron’s packaged run/pass concepts, and how UT’s offense fares versus a competent defense.

by Quigley on Aug 25, 2025 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions  

OSU's defense

underestimate at your own peril. I would have though last year’s thrashing might have caught more Sooners’ attention. Granted Blatnick is gone but the back 7 is probably at least as good as yours.

I don’t disagree that OU should be favored to beat UT this year but if you think you can plug in Stills or Finch at slot and score points on Texas without a running game you’ve got a surprise coming. I see this as more like 2009: 16-13 type game.

by Nickel Rover on Aug 25, 2025 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

Definitions

I guess it depends on what you consider successful.
Last year, all of OU’s non-garbage-time runs were by Whaley. He had 12 carries for 19 yds and one carry for 64.

I’d take that this year, because it gives OU one of just couple of big plays they need. That said, I doubt many reasonable observers would consider that “successful.”

What do you consider successful?

RE: OSU’s defense. When referencing OU’s performance vs. OSU, you have to account for OU’s loss of Broyles and Whaley at that time. Their Adj PPG fell by a touchdown vs with both. I use that not as an excuse for the loss, just to explain the performance.

How do you think OSU’s strength in the back 7 projects to stopping UT?

by Quigley on Aug 25, 2025 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

OSU

demolished you, it wasn’t close. Without Broyles, you still managed to score some points on Baylor, ISU, and A&M.; Against OSU you were smothered, and they played well all year. I knew they would get y’all.

They will surely give us some difficulty, their DL play is getting better.

I’d like to know what these OU scoring drives are going to look like against UT. A 64 yard run by Whaley…if you say so. What else?

by Nickel Rover on Aug 25, 2025 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

3 will be enuff

Last year there were 5.
UT defense better, minus 1
OU offense worse, minus 1
Net equals 3.

UT’s Adj PPG fell by ~ 3 after OSU game, which I’ve surmised is when the UT defense “awakening” occurred. I’m giving you 2 TD’s credit for sustained drives that resulted in TD’s amd 7 pts overall.

What you’re anticipating is great gain than can be projected from current data. You may be right, but we don’t have data to support your contention right now except your projections that UT’s LB, DL replacements will meet or exceed prior performance.

By the same token, your projections don’t account for other teams sustained success or improvement. That’s OK as long as you acknowledge your projections are weight with bias toward data you feel more comfortable with (your knowledge of UT’s personnel is a reasonable statment).

by Quigley on Aug 25, 2025 4:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

If Texas and OU played 10 times last year

the margin would not have been the same everytime. These “minus 1 score, plus 1 score” calculations are virtually useless.
Like the drop of water down Dr. Saddler’s beautiful hand, the outcomes don’t repeat in that manner.

That’s the real difficulty I find with your system. Texas could be more or less as good as last year and OU the same and the score markedly different. Different matchups, different gameplans, different playcalls.

I expect OU to be the better team but I don’t think these configurations will be accurate, and if so, by mere luck.

by Nickel Rover on Aug 25, 2025 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

The goal is to project based on the data you have.
Based on your statements here, do you not include the 2011 result in your projections for 2012? If not, please explain where you start.

Regarding the role of chance in the score, they only played once. You try to eliminate the “luck” and go with the essential plays and then factor in changes the teams would make, but the on the field data is the starting point.

I went out on a limb and gave you numbers. Vegas does the same thing using a more sophisticated calculus. Join me on the limb.

by Quigley on Aug 25, 2025 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

if that's the formula vegas uses

I should begin to gamble.

The data you are using isn’t adequate for the kinds of numbers you are trying to produce.

I’ll give you a score though: OU 13 Texas 10.
We hold you to field goals on 2 of your 3 better scoring chances but are unable to do enough in the passing game to score.

by Nickel Rover on Aug 25, 2025 7:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Wait, OSU is THAT GOOD?

If you really believe OSU is this good on defense, legitimately top 10-15%, then I don’t understand why you are so down on them overall. There offensive system has proven that it can withstand significant personnel losses and remain efficient.

If they regress from top 1-2% to only ~ top 20 on offense and maintain an excellent defense, with Quinn Sharp kicking, please tell me 15 teams that are better than that.

You guys are ignoring the numbers the numbers that predict a K-St fail and an OSU win. Rename Stockholm Syndrome Manhattan Syndrome.

by Quigley on Aug 25, 2025 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

They are very strong

against passing teams in particular. The back 7 is fantastic, I’m not as sure about their ends. I imagine they’ll figure something out there.

Their offensive system has not proven that it can bring in a freshman QB and remain efficient. Name for me an AirRaid team that has done that successfully.

by Nickel Rover on Aug 25, 2025 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

I’m acknowledging offensive regression will occur, but they were at 49 ppg and 34 Adj ppg (UT 28 and 26 respectively).. What are discussing is how much. The freshman QB beat out 2 other options, options who recruting rankings aren’t terrible, played in an Air Raid-like system in high school, and was highly sought after (OU offered him). As for example, Casey Keenum is the closest but he redshirted. How much do you anticipate this team will regress, I’m giving up a quarter of the country?

Just so we’re clear, based on available data, you are acknowledging that OSU’s defense is not well suited to contend with an adept rushing attack because their weakness is on their DL. Therefore, UT’s first true test of their running game will likely be in Dallas.

BTW, I think beating OSU in Stillwater will be a big win. I don’t think many teams are going to T. Boone Palace and walking out happy this year. I’d be more confident about K-St than OSU if I were a UT fan.

by Quigley on Aug 25, 2025 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

we might be more confident too

if we had ever beaten KSU in anything, ever.

I just don’t buy the “he played the AirRaid in HS” argument. Connor Brewer played in “the boise offense” in high school but I don’t want him anywhere near the football field for another year or 2.

OSU I think will be stronger against the run this year, better DT’s and more experienced backers. But most teams in this league are unused to handling a 2-back Power run game. I think they will offer a stiffer defense of it than most teams. I would expect OU to play it better but I think OSU will be very solid.

I expect OSU to no longer be unable to overwhelm teams that can match their receivers with nickel 4-2 alignments. For instance: last year if you didn’t empty the box you were going to be shredded by Weeden-to-Blackmon and their excellent execution of the bubble screens and quick game.
Lunt WILL NOT operate the 3-step game as well as Weeden did. He might be very solid, but he’ll throw more picks and miss more big plays.
I think OSU’s receivers will probably be very strong but they WILL NOT replace Blackmon with someone of comparable talent.
With those considerations: teams will be able to keep more honest fronts against the run and not have to keep safeties near Blackmon as deep off the line so that running game will suffer as well.

They also replace both offensive tackles and the most promising new one is off the team.

Add all that up and you see death by a million razor cuts. I expect they’ll still be very strong because they churn out good OL and WR’s but very much diminished.

by Nickel Rover on Aug 25, 2025 6:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

So if I read this correctly, you’re assuming OSU will regress how much offensively and improve how much defensively? Again, I gave you specifics regarding projected gain and loss. Please do the same.

Also, you are using OSU 2011 as a benchmark for your projections to OSU 2012. Please realize, you criticized me for doing the same just above with OU and UT.

I like your stuff and you know a lot more about x’s and o’s than me. When you start talking about statistics in general, you are entering my bailiwick.

My family is coming back tonight so I’ll read your responses and disappear for a while.

by Quigley on Aug 25, 2025 7:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

Hard numbers

I can’t give hard numbers for how much these losses will impact OSU statistically. I don’t think anyone can, there are too many variables.

I’m just going off principles and basic reasoning: OSU lost several good and important players on offense. Freshman and new starters usually aren’t as good and Blackmon and Weeden were particularly rare talents. Weeden was 28 and Blackmon was amazing at everything.

I can’t put a number to those facts, I just know that they’ll be significant.

by Nickel Rover on Aug 25, 2025 7:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

Just not seeing it in regards to the OSU defense

I know they were monsters at takeaways, but even with that they finished 107th in the nation in yards per game……despite being helped at least somewhat by an efficient offense.

90th in rush defense and 107th in pass defense. Without the turnovers would they have been Kansas on defense?

This year they will almost surely have a significant dropoff in takeaways and will not have the same level of support from the offense. Just not seeing how all of this translates to a strong defense. I think they have a significant dropoff this year….like 5th or 6th in the conference.

by Horncasting on Aug 25, 2025 10:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

DD Lewis

I know Mackovic recruited DD, but wasn’t he converted to a linebacker under Mack’s watch?

by j_java on Aug 24, 2025 9:51 PM CDT via mobile reply actions  

maybe it's more simple

From time immemorial, Diaz philosophy was to just put the best defensive althletes on the field regardless of their technique or experience. Whaley just maybe a better fit in diaz system.

by houston football on Aug 24, 2025 11:15 PM CDT reply actions  


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