clock menu more-arrow no yes

A losing record in the third week and a review of Sagarin's predicted lines and retrodictive accuracy caused me to revisit my predicted margin formula. So below are the season results so far followed by this week's predictions using the new formula. What I noticed was that I was more accurate on games between closely matched teams than Sagarin (lower predicted margins) but worse on games between unevenly matched teams (predicted blowouts). I tweaked some things and hopefully it will improve. As always, if you straight use this advice to gamble without adding common sense, you deserve to lose the money.

Confidence Record
Overall 83-69-2
14+ 7-4-0
10+ 7-8-1
7+ 15-17-0
54-40-1

This week's lines:

Line Pick Conf
Penn St. -2 @ Ohio St. Penn St. 8.20
Oklahoma -19 @ Kansas St. Oklahoma 7.63
Ohio +4 @ Temple Temple 7.04
Georgia +2.5 @ LSU Georgia 6.84
Rice +2.5 @ Tulane Rice 6.71
Eastern Michigan +24 @ Ball St. Ball St. 6.42
Boise St. -7.5 @ San Jose St. Boise St. 6.39
Texas Tech +2.5 @ Kansas Texas Tech 6.18
Colorado +22 @ Missouri Missouri 6.10
UCLA +17.5 @ California UCLA 5.71
Rutgers +9.5 @ Pittsburgh Pittsburgh 5.70
Nevada -3.5 @ Hawaii Hawaii 5.51
Cincinnati -1 @ Connecticut Connecticut 5.30
Minnesota pk @ Purdue Minnesota 5.23
Oklahoma St. +13 @ Texas Texas 5.17
SMU +12.5 @ Navy Navy 4.96
UNLV +23 @ BYU UNLV 4.83
Michigan St. -5.5 @ Michigan Michigan St. 4.72
Wyoming +32 @ TCU TCU 4.69
Middle Tennessee St. +11.5 @ Mississippi St. Middle Tennessee St. 4.46
Duke +9.5 @ Vanderbilt Duke 4.03
Mississippi -4.5 @ Arkansas Mississippi 4.03
Baylor +10.5 @ Nebraska Nebraska 3.97
Auburn +3.5 @ West Virginia Auburn 3.83
Notre Dame -11.5 @ Washington Washington 3.75
Troy -25 @ North Texas Troy 3.61
Bowling Green +8 @ Northern Illinois Northern Illinois 3.47
Virginia Tech +4.5 @ Florida St. Virginia Tech 3.29
Kentucky +24 @ Florida Kentucky 3.07
Wake Forest +3 @ Miami (FL) Miami (FL) 3.05
Fresno St. -17 @ Utah St. Utah St. 2.99
Colorado St. -7.5 @ San Diego St. San Diego St. 2.90
Texas A&M +3.5 @ Iowa St. Iowa St. 2.89
Virginia +11.5 @ Georgia Tech Virginia 2.59
Florida Atlantic -2 @ Louisiana-Monroe Florida Atlantic 2.53
Southern Cal -15 @ Arizona Arizona 1.99
Alabama -7 @ Tennessee Alabama 1.97
New Mexico St. -15 @ Idaho New Mexico St. 1.75
Central Florida +22.5 @ Tulsa Tulsa 1.53
Northwestern -9 @ Indiana Northwestern 1.32
Central Michigan -3.5 @ Toledo Central Michigan 0.99
New Mexico +5.5 @ Air Force New Mexico 0.95
South Florida -4.5 @ Louisville South Florida 0.90
North Carolina St. +10.5 @ Maryland North Carolina St. 0.58
Boston College +3 @ North Carolina North Carolina 0.57
Southern Miss pk @ Memphis Memphis 0.43
Kent St. +7.5 @ Miami (OH) Miami (OH) 0.39
Louisiana Tech +1.5 @ Army Louisiana Tech 0.35
Oregon -4 @ Arizona St. Oregon 0.34
Illinois -2 @ Wisconsin Wisconsin 0.24

A couple of things to note. The first is that I've mentioned elsewhere that I don't like the Penn St. prediction. Also, the combination of the new formula and the later date in the season has clearly limited the number of high confidence picks from the system. Of course, given the performance so far this year that might be a good thing. The formula seemed to have the intended effect, though, as the number of high confidence numbers spit out in blowout spreads was way down.