Peyton Manning Will Be A Denver Bronco, Tebow Calls Forth Rocky Mountain Locust Plague
by Scipio Tex on Mar 19, 2026 12:56 PM CDT
in Texas Longhorns and Other Football
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PrintThe return of Manning to the league as a Denver Bronco means the death of Tebowmania (-portable Jonestown the Tebow circus this inspiring young man coming soon to a town near you!) and it's a fascinating, somewhat counterintuitive development when places like Miami, Arizona, or San Francisco offered - at least at first blush - more advantageous situations to one of history's greatest QBs, likable dudes, and awe-inspiring foreheads. As a case study for decisional calculus, it's fascinating.
What Denver gains:
- A veteran, elite QB with enough prestige and clout to usher Tebow out the door without significant fan blowback. It did't take long to realize that Elway and the Broncos were prisoners to Tebowmania; watching entire halves with their starting QB drilling the football repeatedly into the turf, hoping the defense could keep the Broncos in the game, seeing Timmah put points on the board late against an exhausted defense tired of chasing him around at altitude; then listening to fans and media attribute a 14-10 victory to the quarterback. Even if Manning ultimately fails, he allows them out from under the tyranny of Tebowmania and its associated distractions. Hi Jacksonville! Watch the Broncos draft a young QB to groom behind Manning ASAP
- A QB who can throw more than screens and go routes. It's Peyton F'ing Manning, y'all. He's not going to complete only 46% of his passes a la Tebow, even from a hospital bed
- A game changer in an exploitable division. Want to go to the Super Bowl? Your first objective is to find a division pliable enough to let you get there with a divisional title, a first round bye, and one of the few legitimate home field advantages in the NFL. Hello AFC West! The age of parity in the NFL has proven nothing but the fact that you don't have to have the best team - you just need an invitation to the dance. And if you can host the dance at altitude, the band is going to play your favorite music
- A good OL. Ryan Clady is a damn good LT, they have a top third of the league RT, and the Denver OL in sum is a high level run-blocking unit that sets up the play action game beautifully. Watch some old Edgerrin James tape to be reminded of what a Manning offense looks like with a legitimate run game - he hasn't seen that in three years, minimum
- Organizational buy-in. The Broncos are all in on Manning and he and his advisors have a team that will allow him to shape the roster to his specifications, create a playbook in collaboration, and form a structure that will allow Manning to explore junior ownership partnership and/or organizational management post-retirement. This decision is about much more than Manning's next two years of football
- Money and redemption. Peyton will get paid and a chance to cement his legend. Though Manning has his ring and his place in history assured, his historical legacy is, in some minds, closer to Dan Marino than Joe Montana. Or nemesis Tom Brady. A ring in Denver puts him firmly in the conversation for GOAT
- Uh, his neck. A grainy Youtube video of Manning throwing routes against air commented on by a helpful rube isn't sufficient assurance that he can handle NFL hits and deliver the ball in game action. He's had thirty seven major neck surgeries (estimated), missed an entire year of football, still has residual weakness in his arm, and he's 35 years old. What's not to love? Anytime I hear foot injury in association with a NBA center, high IQ in association with a baseball player, or neck injury in association with a football player, I'm concerned
- Outside vs inside. Denver in December: Frigid, windy-ish, grassy. Most of Manning's career? 70 degrees, no wind, carpet. Despite conventional wisdom, Manning has been a solid outdoor QB, but the vast majority of his throws have taken place in the atmospherics of a shopping mall and his spiral is looser than OctoMom's perineal lining. Overdone meme? Dunno. I suspect, if anything, thin air aids his deep ball and playing in non-rainy snow has always been advantageous to offense. I'd have been more concerned about him playing in Seattle, Borneo, or interior Kauai
- Denver talent. The defense is average despite a capacity for stretches of high level play. Good offenses blew their doors off more often than not. The offensive mix is a question mark. Manning needs reliable route runners and instinctive veterans that make quick reads to make his preferred offense hum. Why Denver? Demaryius Thomas, though physically talented, is raw and played all of his meaningful football in option offenses. Eddie Royal hasn't been particularly useful since 2008. Eric Decker is a fit for Manning owing to his general Austin Collie-ness, but he's only one Caucasian. Expect some veteran WR additions and a Bronco passing offense that doesn't work itself out 'til Week 6. If ever. The Denver TE talent is Daniel Fells (he's a'ight) and RBs McGahee and Ball are merely adequate
- Best choice? San Francisco offered Manning an elite defense and a great running game; Arizona offered Larry Fitzgerald, a good, young supporting cast on offense, a developing D and a dome; Miami offered a strong talent infrastructure missing mostly a catalyst behind center. Peyton's banking on the fact that he's the only force multiplier needed. We'll find out soon enough. I suspect Denver's greatest appeal was their sheer desperation and their willingness to cede considerable control to Team Manning. Does that make them the best choice for winning though?
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I imagine the plague will simply be more Californians moving here.
Great read, Scip. I love the move for my beloved Broncos.
by ColoradoAg on Mar 19, 2026 1:03 PM CDT reply actions
Much rather see him at JAX if he remains in the AFC South
Lots of cap commitment between Tebow and Gabbert - I guess they’ll have to count on Hometown Gatah Fevah to counteract fans’ angst at benching/moving a first rounder with one year of playing time.
Still, I didn’t figure Manning as bound for Denver. Weak division, sure, but as you said they seem more than just a QB away. I suppose you could attribute it to emerging confidence in the defense (imo, the real reason for their success last year).
by Levander Williams on Mar 19, 2026 1:15 PM CDT reply actions
I think JAX is more interested
in getting people into seats than operating rationally. They’re in a lot of trouble. And MJD would be a pretty nifty zone read back. HA HA HA HA
by Scipio Tex on Mar 19, 2026 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm convinced that the Jags are on the Rachel Phelps plan
As they grease the skids to become the LA Jaguars in 2017.
by nobis60 on Mar 19, 2026 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions
You mean those tarps aren't paying customers?
by Levander Williams on Mar 19, 2026 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm happy it's not Tennessee
http://aseaofblue.com | https://www.barkingcarnival.com | @JC_Hoops
by jc25 on Mar 19, 2026 1:21 PM CDT reply actions
Clady and easy path to playoffs ... ding ding
Makes sense to me. Denver still need more skill position talent but they’ll get plenty of interest.
A whole bunch of stale Tebow merch is about to get shipped to Africa.
by Vasherized on Mar 19, 2026 1:21 PM CDT reply actions
One of the items on my bucket list
Is to travel to an impoverished South American country and pick up a bunch of ‘Buffalo Bills - 1993 Super Bowl Champs’-type swag.
by nobis60 on Mar 19, 2026 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions
I saw a Texas Shock The Nation t-shirt
in township near Cape Town. I laughed out loud.
by Scipio Tex on Mar 19, 2026 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions
I change my oil in my old Cotton Bowl T shirt
not kidding
by 55f100tx on Mar 19, 2026 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Book Recommendation
http://www.amazon.com/Travels-T-Shirt-Global-Economy-Economist/dp/0471648493
Because nothing says Tebow like a pop economics book on the t-shirt industry. This is my contribution to this thread. Enjoy it like fine wine.
by BatesHorn on Mar 20, 2026 6:34 AM CDT up reply actions
When were you in Cape Town?
One of my favorite cities. Did you hit up The Cod Father in Camp’s Bay?
by BurntOrangeJuice on Mar 20, 2026 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions
No Cod Father.
I was there 2004ish, I think? Gorgeous city.
by Scipio Tex on Mar 20, 2026 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Tebow
I think you undersell his effectiveness as a passer. By most advanced metrics, he was actually pretty good. Ridiculous YPA, greatly improved the Denver running game, and when he avoided turnovers he was one of the biggest reasons for Denver success.
It’s an excuse from heaven (or hell) for the Denver management but if Peyton goes down, or sucks, and they’ve already dealt Tebow, they’ll have done permanent damage.
by Nickel Rover on Mar 19, 2026 1:29 PM CDT reply actions
Going stretches where you average one completed pass per quarter
Is not “pretty good.”
by CMDR on Mar 19, 2026 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions
how many passes
did he throw? What was the Broncos strategy? That’s an impressive sounding number but useless without context.
by Nickel Rover on Mar 19, 2026 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Ridiculous YPA
6.38, good enough for 28th in the league. Ridiculous yes.
34th in yards per game. 34th. Worse than whoever QB’d the nonexistent LA team apparently.
I’ll let Huckleberry hound adjust those stats, but come on.
by CMDR on Mar 19, 2026 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Ha
Was just about to post this. Tebow’s YPA was indeed ridiculous….ly bad. He was one of the worst QBs in the NFL on this statistic.
Robots are everywhere, and they eat old people's medicine for fuel.
by BrickHorn on Mar 19, 2026 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't agree
You can overcome the inconsistency of a low completion percentage with outstanding Yards Per Attempt, but Tebow is at 6.4. That’s well below average. And he’s doing that with a good pass blocking OL. So he’s not giving you enough big plays to counteract a lack of incremental chain moving. His DVOA is at the bottom of the NFL according to Football Outsiders. So what advanced metrics are you using?
He does aid the running game. Particularly against DCs too arrogant to specifically game plan zone read.
Similarly, although he doesn’t turn it over a lot, his turnovers tend to go the other way for scores, and he gives up an inordinate number of sacks blowing early reads and trying to extend plays not meant to be extended.
by Scipio Tex on Mar 19, 2026 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions
bah
I saw a much higher number for YPA that must have plummeted after some of those late season games.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/kerry_byrne/11/29/tim.tebow/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_t11_a2
When Tebow was avoiding TO’s, launching deep bombs, and running the ball he was extremely productive as a QB. The low scores belied a winning strategy that insured that the Broncos won the possession game. Too often people ignore the stats QB’s accumulate by rushing the ball, as if they don’t count.
He definitely laid some stink bombs at the end though, but I hardly think that the final takeaway should have been “Tebow is definitely not an NFL QB”.
by Nickel Rover on Mar 19, 2026 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions
So we should discount larger performance in totality
as NFL defenses adjust to his play than a smaller sample size when he’s still new?
Rushing does count. That’s why they have DVOA measures. Sucked there, too.
Denver averaged 18.5 ppg with Tebow as their starting QB. 21 ppg with Kyle Orton.
I won’t even get into the “low offensive outputs on purpose” fallacy or the notion that anything but the Denver defense has predominant impact on the opposing QB’s stat line (in your link)
Or, alternatively, watch the games and trust your eyes…
by Scipio Tex on Mar 19, 2026 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Low scoring
hardly matters if there are a lower number of total possessions and one team is turning it over.
Would you rather have Kyle Orton running a pro-style offense or Tebow operating a run-centric offense? I’ll take the latter and sell more tickets doing so.
Anyways, I didn’t realize his bad games knocked down his totals so far and I wasn’t attempting to argue that we should ignore the bad games and only note the good ones. However I think it would be equally hasty to dismiss him as an NFL QB
by Nickel Rover on Mar 19, 2026 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions
I dismiss him. With haste.
He has a role as a change-up utility guy with special packages, but as a 16 week starting QB, he’s a long term disaster once NFL DCs stop mailing in their game plans with “we’re going to do what we do” bullshit. He’s also a net negative in the locker room because of what he inspires in the press and public unless he totally and completely accepts his marginal role.
by Scipio Tex on Mar 19, 2026 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions
You're talking about a QB who...
1) Didn’t get starter snaps pre-season
2) Became starter after Orton had crapped the bed and wrecked the W-L record
3) Was playing his freshman season in the NFL…
and still made it to the playoffs then went on to win the first game.
NFL DC’s can’t just rewrite their defenses effectively one game per season. This guy’s a for real NFL QB.
by Zzzizzzy on Mar 19, 2026 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions
1. But he got worse the more snaps he got.
2. Interesting how Denver’s W-L record got better when Von Miller came on
3. True, true.
Yes, they can. See the game plans Buffalo, KC, and NE ran against the Broncos late in the year.
by Scipio Tex on Mar 19, 2026 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions
good points, but...
He did complete fewer passes over the season, but as you point out, I suspect that would be more of a factor of defensive adjustments v. QB deterioration.
Tebow has always done what it takes to get the job done for his part. That’s why I suspect that this offseason would have gone a long way to overcome those defensive adjustments — which are very different from making one-game personnel and scheme changes which would ultimately have been required as the Denver offense continued to grow with Tebow.
Although Von Miller’s presence contributed to the win, he didn’t complete that overtime pass to win the playoff game.
Personally, I hate to see him leave Denver for the very reason you pointed to in the article. Playing at 5200 feet as a scrambling QB is more than he could have hoped. Nevertheless, I suspect Timmy will be do just fine wherever he lands. He has more than just football with which to make a living.
Thanks for the article.
by Zzzizzzy on Mar 19, 2026 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Not to get totally Freudian...
But are we propping up Tebow on a ‘Horns board as some sort of Vince Young projection? Like, "If Tebow blows, then what chance is there for other run-first college QB’s?" I’d argue that there’s no need for this, since VY is a much better passer and NFL quarterback, as shown by his playoff-run leadership and Pro Bowl, while Tebow is ass-suck.
Just wondering…
We're going to play like we're in a bad mood.
by JoeT63 on Mar 20, 2026 8:11 AM CDT up reply actions
Very interesting move from all angles
Great analysis of the factors in play. I knew that Denver would be panting hard for Manning as their only means of extricating themselves from the suicide vest that was Tebowmania. I think some of the delay on Manning’s part was in determining that the junior ownership potential was to his liking in Denver - rest assured that the ‘exploration’ has taken place, but quietly and with some degree of sophistication (as opposed to Bud Adams blowing up his chances by ham-handedly making public offers that would blatantly violate the salary cap in ways Jerry Jones and Dan Snyder could only dream of).
I think there was something to Marshall Faulk’s insistence that Peyton would never really consider playing in the same conference as Eli, so the Cards (and, at the 11th hour, the 49ers) were played for leverage.
I’d be surprised if the Broncos’ run game is nearly as effective next year - that’s one area where Tebow deserves tremendous credit as the Broncos’ interior OL was probably the worst in football last year. JD Walton is possibly worse than Phil Costa at center, and Zane Beadles’ ProFootballFocus Run Rating/snap would have been the worst of any guard in the league save for the disastrous four-game apprenticeship of Bill Nagy. On a side note, the fact that Costa and Nagy were thought to be legitimate options at the start of 2011 is why I desperately, desperately pine for David DeCastro to be the Cowboys’ first round selection - unless they are presented with an absolutely can’t miss OL prospect, they are almost guaranteed to miss due to a decade-long tradition of terrible OL evaluation spanning 3 coaching regimes.
It will be very interesting to see the makeup of the Broncos’ pass-catching corps at the start of the season. I don’t know that Manning will have anyone that can approach the Marvin Harrison/Reggie Wayne mind-meld route precision (“OK, this is the one we want to break at 12 7/8 yards and take three and a half strides to the out and look for the ball near the lower left third of your face mask”). Of course, he also hasn’t had anyone like Thomas who gives him a passing window that’s basically the size of a minivan, either.
by nobis60 on Mar 19, 2026 1:45 PM CDT reply actions
The junior ownership angle is huge
As well as my general sense that Denver said yes to anything Manning’s camp wanted.
The Bronco WR issue is a huge one. I know Thomas is a freakish specimen and a load, but Manning is releasing the ball before the route is run. If you’re not on his page, it’s a pick. They need to find one more reliable to go with Decker and then Thomas can catch his 4 balls for 88 yards in every game.
Also curious to see what free agents Manning lined up for himself before deciding on Denver. Expect 3-4 of his guys to come there soon.
by Scipio Tex on Mar 19, 2026 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Yup - I was very surprised that Reggie Wayne re-upped with the Colts before Manning made his move
Although I suppose as a WR, on your last contract it doesn’t matter how good you look or how many balls you catch, just that you got paid.
by nobis60 on Mar 19, 2026 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Mike Wallace
and Dallas Clark are possibilities because the Broncs will still have planty of cap room. Also, they would do well to trade Tebow for help at RB or OL. Jeff saturday had been mentioned as a possible acquisition as well.
This was going to be either a Titans or Denver deal because Peyton, although he is going to be paid well, doesn’t “need” the dough and won’t have to play against Eli very often if at all. Another factor I believe has been underplayed is the presence of a veteran coach in John Fox. Jim Caldwell was a really bad choice by Indy. They let Dungy hand pick him, IMO. Fox knows what he has and will put Peyton in a position to succeed via game plan and schemeatic input. Add in the almost automatic playoff berth every year, and….voila!
by boorad on Mar 19, 2026 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm betting
Peyton is basically the new OC. Fox is going to need to show some similar versatility to last year in allowing Manning to do his thing.
by Nickel Rover on Mar 19, 2026 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Exactly
and I believe he will and that’s a major factor in the decision. Fox handled the Tebow craziness very well last year.
by boorad on Mar 19, 2026 7:53 PM CDT up reply actions
I had assumed that Caldwell was the janitor
And after Dungy left, everyone was wandering around aimless until he unlocked Dungy’s desk drawer and emerged with the whistle.
One of those Sword in the Stone kind of deals.
by nobis60 on Mar 19, 2026 11:04 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
I think daddy Manning steers the ship more than people know
and I don’t think he wanted Peyton in the nfc and possibly have the brothers block one another from the super bowl…I think that’s the only reason he didn’t go to san fran b/c they seemed like a no brainer; also not sure how Harbaugh and Manning would have meshed. I mean shit, aren’t they the same age basically?
by ballrific on Mar 19, 2026 8:03 PM CDT up reply actions
There is NO way that Jim Harbaugh
would turn over the offense to Peyton Manning without any interference.
None.
by srr50 on Mar 19, 2026 9:32 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think so
Not at this point in Peyton’s career. These guys love each other but they are brothers with a strong competitive bloodline. I know if I was in that situation, I’d rather play my brother for all the marbles.
by boorad on Mar 19, 2026 10:43 PM CDT up reply actions
Peyton Manning doesn't play for the Colts anymore?
That’s news to me.
by Yossarian Rising on Mar 19, 2026 1:55 PM CDT reply actions
The times, they are a changing...or some shit like that.
Now who is this Tebow character you guys are on about? And who cares about his YPA? I hate pale ales; they’re too bitter.
by Yossarian Rising on Mar 19, 2026 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions
Best. Title. Ever.
Tebow goes back to Florida…or becomes assistant at tOSU and continues man crush relationship between himself and Meyer
by STLaw on Mar 19, 2026 2:29 PM CDT reply actions
Manning chooses a team and
the comments are STILL mostly about Tebow.
Dear Lord, PLEASE let this be the beginning of the End Times if Tebow Mania is not dealt its death blow by this.
by lurkerinthedark on Mar 19, 2026 9:33 PM CDT reply actions
After that OT strike to Thomas against the Steelers
I figured the Mayans were just eleven and a half months off.
The End of Days would have been preferable to the Monday convo with my bookie after that debacle.
by nobis60 on Mar 19, 2026 11:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Help me out, please....
…because I can’t keep these “NFL expert” narratives (as opposed to ST narratives) straight.
Last year, Denver survived the Worst QB Ever to get into the playoffs and beat Pittsburgh, a narrative which might lead one to believe that solid QB play could have taken them further.
Now they’re a bad team so desperate to rid themselves of the Worst QB Ever that they will give Manning Total Control even though Manning should have gone to an NFL team with a chance of more success - say, Arizona or Miami.
This basically boils down what I hear on the radio, which is what I guess I deserve for listening to sports radio.
IMO, a lot of football experts completely missed the point on Tebow last year. Fans understood his technical weaknesses. They didn’t care. Matt Schaub might have been 100x times better as an NFL QB, but no one outside his mother rooted for Matt personally. For whatever reason, people connected to Tebow on a personal level, and that’s an incredibly rare thing in professional sports these days.
For a brief, fleeting moment last year, Tebow reminded a lot of people why they became NFL fans to begin with. I know it’s popular to suggest that the NFL is untouchable in its popularity, but it’s just my impression that their popularity has vastly expanded its surface area at the expense of its depth. I usually don’t watch NFL games anymore, just because they have become so predictable, but I enjoyed watching Tebow a couple of afternoons last year. If nothing else, it was different.
by G.O.F on Mar 20, 2026 7:45 AM CDT reply actions
This year's Alamo Bowl was different
and was incredibly entertaining for viewers.
But that doesn’t make it good football.
"If God dwells inside us like some people say, I sure hope He likes enchiladas, because that's what He's getting."
by RedmondLonghorn on Mar 20, 2026 8:42 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm not saying he should be a starter
I am saying he proves how desperate fans are for something that departs from an extremely predictable NFL script.
by G.O.F on Mar 20, 2026 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions
"that’s an incredibly rare thing in professional sports these days."
No, no its not. The media and fans create a fun weird story all the time.
See: Jeremy Lin.
Were Tebow not such a pre-packaged character, the same fervor could have been made for John Skelton.
by CMDR on Mar 20, 2026 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Tebow + Lin = Common Occurence?
I disagree. Tebow hits a cultural nerve center unlike any professional athlete I can remember. Maybe Broadway Joe in his day, but that was before my time. Again, that doesn’t mean he belongs on the field. I guess Warner’s coming out party comes close, but he and Lin were guys who came out of nowhere. Tebow’s been in the center of the spotlight since 2007? You would think people would have moved on by now.
by G.O.F on Mar 20, 2026 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions
It is not every day that you get a blow job from John Elway.
by The General on Mar 20, 2026 10:59 AM CDT reply actions
Tebow goes to Tampa for Brokered Convention
Retires from football to be VP nominee. Political media meltdown.
Everybody wins.
by G.O.F on Mar 20, 2026 3:31 PM CDT reply actions
Good for jogging at night
And directing runway traffic at Denver International
by CMDR on Mar 21, 2026 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions
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