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Who Won the First Round? Check the PED’s

Apr 26, 2012; New York, NY, USA; NFL commissioner Roger Goodell introduces Andrew Luck (Stanford) as the number one overall pick to the Indianapolis Colts in the 2012 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

Step inside for the double-secret formula that can tell you how YOUR team fared in the first round. SCIENCE!!! (WARNING: This will be the dorkiest thing you have ever seen).

Star-divide

Thursday night’s festivities had barely ended – in fact, they were still in progress – when the blogosphere, Twitterverse and all other Footballcosms broke out in discussions around who ‘won’ or ‘lost’ the first round. Now, it doesn’t take a great deal of logic to figure out that these kinds of snap judgments are largely valueless since no one REALLY has a clue how 2012’s first rounders will pan out. Of course, it also takes very little logic to know that if you write about football and have a whole day to kill between Round One and Round Two, then you’re damn well going to engage in some kind of evaluative exercise no matter how silly it is. So onward with the silliness!

I figured that as long as I was going to do something silly like this, I might as well take something that could be disguised as a logical approach to figuring out how teams fared in the first round. My thought process was this:

1) Figure out which factors are most important in helping a team reach, and succeed in, the playoffs.

2) Estimate the degree to which a team’s selections in the first round helped them improve in those factors, relative to the team they had going into Thursday night.

3) Account for the ‘going in’ value of the teams’ first-round picks, as well as any choices in subsequent rounds that they gained or lost through trades

4) ????

5) PROFIT!!!!!

First off, let’s decide what’s most important to a team’s fortunes. There are a lot of ways to break down an NFL squad, but let’s stick to five main categories of outcomes:

Passing Offense

Rushing Offense

Passing Defense

Rushing Defense

Special Teams

Things like luck and officiating obviously factor in to all of those elements to some degree, but by and large anything a team does on the field fits into one of those categories.

Now, how do we tell how good a team is at any one of these factors? Probably my favorite evaluative measure is FootballOutsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average). In a nutshell, DVOA purports to tell you how much better a team has performed relative to an ‘average’ team each time they do something – run the ball, throw a pass, etc. (For those not familiar with DVOA, there’s an extensive explanation here.) Basically, if a team has a passing offense DVOA of 25%, they performed 25% better than a league-average passing offense across all the situations where they threw the ball in a given season. The defense-adjusted part adjusts for opponents, so in 2011 it was more impressive to move the ball through the air against the Ravens’ defense than it was against the Panthers. The way the calculate DVOA, you want your offensive stats to be positive and your defensive stats to be negative.

So, how did teams stack up in 2011? Here’s a chart that shows the teams’ DVOA figures for each of the five main categories, along with their 2011 regular season record:

Team Pass Offense Pass Defense Rush Offense Rush Defense Special Teams 2011 Record
GB 73% 16% 11% 8% 5% 15-1
NE 61% 24% 17% 9% 4% 13-3
NO 56% 23% 22% 3% -1% 13-3
SF 23% -1% -4% -25% 6% 13-3
PIT 31% -7% 10% -4% 3% 12-4
BAL 20% -16% 8% -11% -4% 12-4
DET 26% -6% 0% -1% -7% 10-6
HOU 27% -1% 8% -11% 0% 10-6
ATL 29% 2% -4% -17% 1% 10-6
CIN 25% 12% -6% -3% 3% 9-7
NYG 36% 14% -1% -2% 2% 9-7
TEN 22% 14% -10% -7% 7% 9-7
DAL 36% 14% -7% -8% 0% 8-8
NYJ 7% -11% -1% -13% 4% 8-8
PHI 19% 2% 22% -2% 1% 8-8
SD 34% 28% 6% 4% -1% 8-8
OAK 18% 15% 7% 12% -1% 8-8
CHI -15% -2% -3% -22% 10% 8-8
ARI -16% 8% 0% 5% 3% 8-8
DEN -11% 16% 4% -4% 4% 8-8
SEA 8% -1% -1% -6% 3% 7-9
KC -8% 5% -9% -3% 2% 7-9
MIA 8% 5% -6% -6% 3% 6-10
CAR 20% 25% 36% 15% -5% 6-10
BUF 8% 16% 9% 8% -2% 6-10
WAS 4% 9% -1% -4% -1% 5-11
JAC -39% -3% -1% -11% -3% 5-11
TB -7% 27% 2% 11% -1% 4-12
CLE 3% 10% -9% 7% -1% 4-12
MIN -15% 29% 16% -7% -4% 3-13
STL -23% 8% -7% 10% -3% 2-14
IND -11% 24% -4% 6% -4% 2-14

OK, so what? Kind of noisy when it’s laid out like that. Let’s try a hypothesis to distill this down into something more meaningful. The hypothesis I’m going with is that passing, and stopping the pass, is far more important to a team’s success than running or stopping the run. The idea of the passer rating differential – basically the difference between your offense’s passer rating and your defense’s passer rating allowed – first came to prominence in this article from SI and made a pretty compelling case. This differential seemed to be the single most important factor in determining which teams won the championship year after year. Since we’re using DVOA efficiency ratings here, let’s go ahead and call it PED – Passer Efficiency Differential. If we look at 2011’s teams in order of their PED (with the defensive DVOA subtracted from the offensive DVOA since negative is good on defense), things look like this (with 2011 playoff teams highlighted in green):

Team Pass Offense Pass Defense TOTAL Playoff Seed/Comment
GB 73% 16% 58% #1 Seed - NFC
PIT 31% -7% 38% #5 Seed - AFC
BAL 20% -16% 37% #2 Seed - AFC
NE 61% 24% 37% #1 Seed - AFC (Super Bowl Participant)
NO 56% 23% 33% #3 Seed - NFC
DET 26% -6% 32% #6 Seed - NFC
HOU 27% -1% 28% #3 Seed - AFC
ATL 29% 2% 27% #5 Seed - NFC
SF 23% -1% 24% #2 Seed - NFC
NYG 36% 14% 22% #4 Seed - NFC (Super Bowl Winner)
DAL 36% 14% 22% Newman!!!!
NYJ 7% -11% 19% Sanchize'd!!!!!
PHI 19% 2% 16% Castillo'd!!!
CIN 25% 12% 13% #6 Seed - AFC
SEA 8% -1% 9%
TEN 22% 14% 8%
SD 34% 28% 7%
MIA 8% 5% 3%
OAK 18% 15% 3%
CAR 20% 25% -6%
WAS 4% 9% -6%
CLE 3% 10% -7%
BUF 8% 16% -8%
KC -8% 5% -13%
CHI -15% -2% -13%
ARI -16% 8% -24%
DEN -11% 16% -26% #4 Seed - AFC (Most anomalous team possibly ever)
STL -23% 8% -31%
TB -7% 27% -33%
IND -11% 24% -35%
JAC -39% -3% -36%
MIN -15% 29% -44%

Pretty interesting, eh? Of the 12 slots in the 2011 playoffs, ten were filled by the top 10 teams in PED for a ratio of 83%. In both 2009 and 2010, nine of the top 12 PED teams made the playoffs for a three-year aggregate ratio of 78%

Looks like we’re on to something with this whole ‘importance of passing’ thing. Now, how can we use this info to figure out who came out of Thursday’s first round smelling like a rose? I think that comes down to two parts – figuring out how much a team’s selection(s) will help them improve in one of the key factors (ignoring special teams, as it’s the rare first-round pick who will be deployed too much in that area), and how much weight to give each factor.

To address the second part first, I assigned the following weights to each of the four factors:

Passing Offense: 4.0x

Passing Defense: 3.0x

Rushing Offense: 1.25x

Rushing Defense: 1.0x

The degree of improvement in each factor is obviously where the guesswork comes in, and I’ve tried to give an assessment of how much a guy will impact the team’s DVOA relative to where they stood just before the draft. This factors in not only a guy’s level of play, but also how much of an improvement he’ll be over what the team had at that position as of Wednesday.

The final piece of the puzzle in evaluating a team’s drafting performance is figuring out what value to assign each pick in the draft. Jimmy Johnson’s famous ‘value chart’ that he used to help rape the Vikings in the Herschel Walker trade was probably the genesis of this concept, but that chart is probably outdated now. I’ve decided to use the slot values from Mel Kiper’s PlayTheDraft.com website to assign a ‘going-in’ value to each pick – the #1 pick is worth 3800 ‘points’, the #15 is worth 1900, the #45 pick in the second round is worth 845 and so on. Obviously it’s easier for a team to add value to its squad if it started the draft with several high selections, so I’ve factored in the ‘points’ for each team’s first round pick(s) as well as the net of points that they added or subtracted for the rest of the draft by trading later-round picks during Thursday’s action.

The chart below shows my ranking of each of the 28 teams who made a selection in the first round. As a quick recap, the chart shows:

- The starting ‘points’ a team had based on where its pick(s) fell in the first round

- Who they selected

- My estimation of the improvement that their chosen player(s) will generate across the four major factors over the next few seasons holding the rest of their roster from Wednesday constant – basically, how much will Melvin Ingram improve the Chargers’ defense assuming he starts over Travis LaBoy at outside linebacker? If a team had two first-round selections, the improvements are for both players in aggregate

- The residual value for subsequent rounds based on their trades – if a team traded down and added more second-day picks the number is positive, and if they gave up picks the number is negative

- The total ‘net impact’ of the selection using the weight of each of the four factors (with passing offense being 4x as important as rushing defense)

- The Value per Point the team created based on their first-round trades and selections – basically that Net Impact figure divided by the team’s net pick-based point values and then grossed up by a factor of 10,000 to bring the numbers to a tens digit and a couple of decimals

For the brave three of you who slogged through all of that explanation, here’s the chart:

Team Starting Picks Total Starting Points Selection(s) Pass Offense Upgrade (DVOA) Pass Defense Upgrade (DVOA) Rush Offense Upgrade (DVOA) Rush Defense Upgrade (DVOA) Residual Value of Picks Traded Total Net Impact Value/ Point
Indianapolis Colts #1 3,800 Andrew Luck 25% 0% 5% 0% - 106% 2.80
Washington Redskins #2 3,500 RGIII 18% 0% 12% 0% - 87% 2.49
Pittsburgh Steelers #24 1,575 David DeCastro 5% 0% 7% 0% - 29% 1.83
Arizona Cardinals #13 2,000 Michael Floyd 8% 0% 3% 0% - 36% 1.79
Minnesota Vikings #3 3,250 Matt Kalil 8% 0% 7% 0% 900 41% 1.73
San Diego Chargers #18 1,725 Melvin Ingram 0% 9% 0% 2% - 29% 1.68
Detroit Lions #23 1,600 Riley Reiff 5% 0% 5% 0% - 26% 1.64
Cincinnati Bengals #17, #21 3,400 Dre Kirkpatrick, Kevin Zeitler 3% 7% 5% 2% 556 41% 1.45
St. Louis Rams #6 2,750 Michael Brockers 0% 6% 0% 8% 845 26% 1.36
Jacksonville Jaguars #7 2,650 Justin Blackmon 9% 0% 3% 0% (325) 40% 1.34
New York Jets #16 1,800 Quinton Coples 0% 7% 0% 3% - 24% 1.33
Green Bay Packers #28 1,475 Nick Perry 0% 6% 0% 1% - 19% 1.29
Tennessee Titans #20 1,675 Kendall Wright 5% 0% 1% 0% - 21% 1.27
Philadelphia Eagles #15 1,900 Fletcher Cox 0% 9% 0% 5% (675) 32% 1.24
New York Giants #32 1,375 David Wilson 3% 0% 4% 0% - 17% 1.24
Dallas Cowboys #14 1,950 Morris Claiborne 0% 11% 0% 1% (845) 34% 1.22
Tampa Bay Buccaneers #5 3,000 Mark Barron, Doug Martin 4% 8% 4% 5% (1,130) 50% 1.21
San Francisco 49ers #30 1,425 AJ Jenkins 4% 0% 1% 0% - 17% 1.19
Chicago Bears #19 1,700 Shea McClellin 0% 6% 0% 2% - 20% 1.18
Buffalo Bills #10 2,250 Stephon Gilmore 0% 8% 0% 2% - 26% 1.16
Houston Texans #26 1,525 Whitney Mercilus 0% 5% 0% 2% - 17% 1.11
New England Patriots #27, #31 2,900 Chandler Jones, Donte Hightower 0% 12% 0% 7% (981) 43% 1.11
Miami Dolphins #8 2,500 Ryan Tannehill 6% 0% 3% 0% - 28% 1.11
Baltimore Ravens #29 1,450 Harrison Smith 0% 5% 0% 1% - 16% 1.10
Seattle Seahawks #12 2,050 Bruce Irvin 0% 5% 0% 0% 675 15% 1.09
Cleveland Browns #4, #22 4,775 Trent Richardson, Brandon Weeden 10% 0% 14% 0% (900) 58% 1.01
Kansas City Chiefs #11 2,100 Dontari Poe 0% 4% 0% 8% - 20% 0.95
Carolina Panthers #9 2,350 Luke Kuechly 0% 5% 0% 7% - 22% 0.94

And there you have it! The winners and losers of the 2012 first round, presented in gorgeous, gorgeous science. Should anyone be up for it, this can also be our open thread for Rounds 2-3 tonight.

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Comments

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Good stuff, #60.

Not sure how accurate it is, but very interesting concept. The degree of improvement guesswork could be hit or miss. Any draft grade that has Miami and Cleveland low right now is probably near the right track though.

by Saul! on Apr 27, 2025 4:35 PM CDT reply actions  

It's undoubtedly hit or miss to say the least

But I wanted some kind of framework that could pull in all the major factors for how well a team handled the first round so that it’s easier to debate/discuss specifics for those so inclined.

I was trying to be as fair to Miami and Cleveland as I could, but it’s very hard to like what they did. If the Dolphins add two fantastic receivers and a Gronkowski-caliber TE then in a season or two maybe Tannehill looks great, but I don’t see him doing anything much more special than Matt Moore did in the second half of last season with the parts they’ve got now.

And Weeden is going to look like a damn fool in Cleveland if they try to trot out the absurd collection of receiving ‘weapons’ Colt had to muddle through with last year.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 4:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think that methodology

is flawed, but extremely interesting.
I think if a team can run the ball consistently, and stop the run, they will be extremely hard to defeat because it will be so hard to be more efficient with your possessions than that team.
Teams are valuing passing offense more than before because the output of 30 point games is so appealing.

by Nickel Rover on Apr 27, 2025 4:54 PM CDT reply actions  

I think the league has legislated things to FAVOR passing offenses because 30 point games are appealing

And because it’s a natural offshoot of player safety concerns (basically putting the QBs and WRs going over the middle in skirts compared to stuff you’d see in the 70’s and 80’s and even into the ’90’s).

The CONSEQUENCE of those legislative changes is to make the passing game more relatively impactful than it’s ever been. There’s undoubtedly a symbiotic relationship between run and pass in any offense, and where a run game can really prove its value is in being efficient in converting 3rd and ones and ensuring that red zone possessions end in TDs. But by and large, it’s tough to argue against the primacy of the pass in today’s NFL.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 5:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

Passing offense

is extremely risky though, even for the greats. It’s very easy to lose TOP and possession chucking the ball around the field. Were I an NFL coach I’d utilize the run ala Harsin because I think their will be a major competitive advantage for teams that can run in the new NFL.

by Nickel Rover on Apr 27, 2025 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

Great concept.

It rates Cleveland poorly, so the science is irrefutable.

Very interested in Rounds 2 and 3.

by Scipio Tex on Apr 27, 2025 4:55 PM CDT reply actions  

not only does it rate the Browns poorly...

it doesn’t even take into account the opportunity cost of their lost draft picks. So they’ve done poorly, and some of their losses haven’t even been counted yet.

by Pflash on Apr 27, 2025 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

It attempts to account for that opportunity cost

In the ‘residual value of picks traded’ column. The Browns are docked 900 points of draft choice value for the later-round selections they dealt to move up (which I think was a tremendous swindle by the Vikes’ GM).

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yep

Rams and Vikings measured out extremely well. Interesting that a lot of the popular press is lauding the Cleveland draft. Fantasy football is fun!

by Scipio Tex on Apr 27, 2025 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

Cleveland under 6.5 wins should be a real solid bet when those lines get released

Richardson is a hell of a runner, but he’ll be going from an OL in the top 3% of CFB lines to one in the bottom third of NFL lines.

Weeden goes from an elite cast of weapons and an offensive system that outpaces most college DCs to walking into a gunfight with two rolls of quarters in a sock.

Pittsburgh and Cincy just got MARKEDLY better, the Ravens may still get better and the AFC North plays a rugged NFC East this season. Things gonna be ugly up there.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

Mostly

I’m just mad that you rate the Patriots so poorly.

by Nickel Rover on Apr 27, 2025 4:56 PM CDT reply actions  

I've probably underrated the impact of Jones and Hightower as a tandem

I don’t have the best feel for how Hightower will be deployed, but it’s very possible that the net impact on their pass defense between both rushing and Hightower in coverage could be a good deal higher than I gave them credit for. The overall impact is fairly high, but the cost of their tradeups weighed against them some.

Both they and the Cowboys came out looking worse than I’d ‘intend’ for them to - there’s been some thinking in advanced baseball stat circles around your position on the ‘marginal win curve’ that probably applies here. The general idea is that the Blue Jays spending $15 million to go from 75 to 77 wins by adding a particular player doesn’t make sense, but if the Red Sox spend $15 million to go from 93 to 95 wins and thus edge the Yankees for the division then it’s money very well spent.

Obviously the Pats are still rocking an offensive juggernaut, and bringing that defense up to average could make them a near lock to return to the Super Bowl. You happily spend some of those extra picks you’ve stockpiled to make that happen, and both Jones and Hightower definitely look like good additions. From the Cowboys’ perspective, from both a statistical and eyeball perspective they were thiiiiiiiiiis close to the playoffs with an outright abortion at CB in Newman - upgrading from that to a potential Top 10 corner is worth a substantial premium when you’re trying to win within a 2-3 year window.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

here's another trick

how much is pass offense impacted by the effectiveness of your rush offense? And vice versa.
Does adding Hightower and Jones improve the Pats run d, and thus against Play-action teams, their pass d?

by Nickel Rover on Apr 27, 2025 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think it definitely does

It’s far easier to play pass defense once you’ve got somebody behind the chains at second and 9 or 3rd and 7 - especially if you’re a team that likes to bring pressure through the blitz like Pittsburgh. Most of the run defense upgrade that I credited the Pats with was due to Hightower, but it may well be low if Jones is a better run defender than I’m giving him credit for.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

marginal advantage

that’s a good point though as well. It might still be worth it for them even if your numbers are totally right on.

by Nickel Rover on Apr 27, 2025 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

another question

Player X might bring considerable increase to Team A’s pass defense, and only marginal increase to team B’s pass defense.

If Team B chooses player X, were they unwise according to the board?

by Nickel Rover on Apr 27, 2025 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Solid analysis. One mistake though...

I believe the Vikes traded up with the Ravens to get Harrison Smith.

Other than that I think the Bucs and Pats did better than projected.

by HornsUpInLA on Apr 27, 2025 5:00 PM CDT reply actions  

Yup - I bonked that one on the Vikes - I'll see if I can edit this thing

As I mentioned to Nickel I feel like I’m probably short-changing the Pats. I’m just not all that sold on Barron’s ability to be a truly impact guy from strong safety for Tampa, and I think Doug Martin is definitely a 3rd down upgrade over Blount at RB but I don’t know that he’s a more impressive runner.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

Also

Let’s make this our open thread for the Friday draft.

by Scipio Tex on Apr 27, 2025 5:14 PM CDT reply actions  

Kansas City... What an odd pick

First DT off of the board was not even All-Conference in Conference USA… unreal

by HornsUpInLA on Apr 27, 2025 5:22 PM CDT reply actions  

Hard to figure that one, even though I damn near put it into my mock

For all his size, speed and alleged work ethic, you just HAVE to see more on film from a guy like that to think he’s going to man up against constant double teams from far more advanced athletes. Scipio’s ‘was Memphis coached by baboons?’ line from last night nearly sent wine out my nose, but seriously - it’s not like this dude just stepped out of the Congo like that Kevin Bacon basketball movie. He’s been playing DL for years - shouldn’t he have learned SOME kind of way to make this ridiculous size and speed translate into, like, results and stuff?

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

And taking him with Cox on the board was baffling

Cox was born to pass rush from a 3-4 end spot - especially next to a guy like Tamba Hali at OLB. The Chiefs have two run-plugging slugs at DE, one of whom could probably kick inside to NG and let you use Cox to get after the passer from an end spot. The could easily have done that and/or grabbed somebody like Ta’Amu in the second round to be a classic NG and had a hellacious DL rotation. Just way too much strikeout potential in Poe to use #11 on - especially in a scheme where he’ll see far more double-teaming than life as a 4-3 DT.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

#33 - STL - Brian Quick, WR, Appalachian State

Don’t think I’d take him ahead of Hill from Georgia Tech, but people love this dude’s upside. And Lord knows the Rams have jack and shit at wideout.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 6:08 PM CDT reply actions  

#34 - IND - Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford

A touching reunion of QB and TE as Luck gets his favorite target from Stanford. He should work the seams and keep the five-year run of Colts TEs not blocking a damn soul going strong.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 6:10 PM CDT reply actions  

#35 - BAL - Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama

Big mean defensive guy fits the profile for a typical Ravens selection - may spell the end of Sergio Kindle’s time in Baltimore.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 6:17 PM CDT reply actions  

#36 - DEN - Derek Wolfe, DT, Cincinnati

The Broncos needed a DT to replace the departed Brodrick Bunkley, but both Still and Worthy looked like higher-upside guys available. Worthy looked like a damn stallion shutting down the Georgia run game in the Outback Bowl.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 6:23 PM CDT reply actions  

#37 - CLE - Mitchell Schwartz

Glad to hear his stock has risen since the Senior Bowl, since no football has been played since then. Hopefully NFL DE’s will be less stout than Jackson Jeffcoat, who put it to Schwartz pretty handily in the bowl game.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 6:29 PM CDT reply actions  

#38 - JAX - Andre Branch, DE, Clemson

Branch was probably thought of as more of as a 3-4 OLB prospect, but Jacksonville loves trying to make those kinds of dudes into 4-3 ends. Didn’t work out with Aaron Kampman or Matt Roth, but maybe third time’s a charm.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 6:31 PM CDT reply actions  

#39 - STL - Janoris Jenkins, CB, Various

The risk/reward was right at #39 to take a shot at the talented and troubled corner. The Rams had an absolute M*A*S*H unit at corner last year, and even with the acquisition of Cortland Finnegan they needed some talent there. Who will fight more WRs in 2012?

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 6:33 PM CDT reply actions  

#40 - CAR - Amini Silatolu

Silatolu is an absolute physical force - he should keep that Panthers running game going strong once he adapts to the level of competition.

I always love seeing grainy D1-AA film - you expect to hear old timey piano music playing during some of these highlights.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 6:38 PM CDT reply actions  

I fear CAR not doing themselves any favors in your draft grading system

Cue the player piano with ragtime tunes, eh? Can we get the cellphone footage in black and white to boot?

by Saul! on Apr 27, 2025 6:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

#41 - BUF - Cordy Glenn, G/T, Georgia

Buffalo gets a guy with first-round upside in the absolutely massive Glenn. Their biggest need on the OL was probably at LT with the departure of Demetrius Bell and I don’t know that Glenn has the feet for that, but at either guard spot or RT he can be an absolute mauler.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 6:44 PM CDT reply actions  

#42 - MIA - Jonathan Martin, T, Stanford

Here’s a guy that is probably more of a finesse/LT guy that goes to a team that’s set at LT with Jake Long - maybe the Bills and Dolphins can swap dudes? Martin was probably the best overall tackle prospect on the board and is a solid value at the middle of the 2nd.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 6:46 PM CDT reply actions  

That goes against their philosophy, doesn't it?

I thought they only picked up WRs who had played elsewhere in the NFL and had police reports filed against them.

by Saul! on Apr 27, 2025 6:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

It is a bit of a departure

Hopefully he can at least fight a meter maid or something before training camp.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 6:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

Trade info on Jets from SEA

SEA gets picks 47,154, & 232 for their troubles.

by Saul! on Apr 27, 2025 6:48 PM CDT reply actions  

#44 - KC - Jeff Allen, G/T, Illinois

He won’t be the most physical guard in the league but that’s where he’s likely to line up in KC with Albert and Eric Winston at the tackle spots. Good to see the Chiefs upgrading that OL to hopefully get Jamaal back in the swing of things next season.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 6:56 PM CDT reply actions  

#45 - CHI - Alshon Jeffrey, COCKS

He should be a good downfield threat and complement to Brandon Marshall for the Bears. Apparently this dude tends to get fat, but if they can keep him away from the deep dish pizzas he can go up and get it in the red zone.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 7:01 PM CDT reply actions  

#46 - PHI - Mychal Kendricks - LB, Cal

This guy is a solid OLB choice but I’m surprised he went ahead of Zach Brown and Lavonte David. Lord knows the Eagles needed LB help after the fiasco they trotted out at the position last season.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 7:03 PM CDT reply actions  

Part of the constant quest of the Eagles to find LBs.

That trade w/ HOU landed them one, for sure.

by Saul! on Apr 27, 2025 7:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

was thinking the same thing.

Kendricks didn’t wow anyone much this past year

by STLaw on Apr 27, 2025 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

#47 - SEA - Bobby Wagner, LB, Utah State

Pete Carroll’s speed fetish getting served in this draft - Wagner is blazing fast and is probably better than KJ Wright as an outside guy. What they really need to do at LB is replace the terrible Barrett Ruud in the middle - don’t know if he has the instincts or heft to do that but those concerns definitely didn’t keep them from grabbing Irvin.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 7:09 PM CDT reply actions  

Wagner is a good pick for Seattle

unlike their idiocracy yesterday

by STLaw on Apr 27, 2025 7:09 PM CDT reply actions  

#48 - NE - Tavon Wilson, S, Illinois

Guess Belichick is trying to outsmart everybody here - I don’t know that Wilson exactly covered himself in glory for the Illini.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 7:12 PM CDT reply actions  

Don't know a thing about the guy.

Does he have some sort of high value when it comes to special teams?

by Saul! on Apr 27, 2025 7:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

very weird pick

plus, I guess it’s just you, me, and Saul tonight…bummer

by STLaw on Apr 27, 2025 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

#49 - SD - Kendall Reyes, DT/DE, UConn

He doesn’t do anything all that well but is pretty solid all-around - the Chargers definitely needed help at one or both of the end spots.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 7:18 PM CDT reply actions  

#50 - STL - Isaiah Pead, RB - Cincinnati

You knew that Fisher wanted to reinforce the RB corps behind Steven Jackson - he can be a third-down complement and he’s got some juice but he may get Bradford killed if he doesn’t enhance his pass blocking.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 7:20 PM CDT reply actions  

#51 - GB - Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State

I like this pick - he helped absolutely ruin a good Georgia OL in their bowl game. Green Bay’s DL basically took the year off after their Super Bowl win, so he could be a much-needed infusion.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 7:26 PM CDT reply actions  

GB needs Konz...

on years like this where they are drafting for solid depth on O, they need OL bad

by STLaw on Apr 27, 2025 7:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

#52 - TEN - Zach Brown, LB - North Carolina

Just a phenomenal athlete at LB - not the stoutest guy against the run you’ll see but should be great in coverage and shooting gaps. Will Witherspoon is on notice for the Titans.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 7:29 PM CDT reply actions  

#53 - CIN - Devon Still, DT, Penn State

Man that’s a great pick for them - Still would have been a good value in the first - that DL is looking pretty good in Cincy if you’re lining him up to Geno Atkins with Dunlap coming off the edge.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 7:34 PM CDT reply actions  

Good pick by Cincy

Still is a solid DL with good upside

by STLaw on Apr 27, 2025 7:34 PM CDT reply actions  

weird pick by the Lions

no real need at the moment for Broyles

by STLaw on Apr 27, 2025 7:40 PM CDT reply actions  

#54 - DET - Ryan Broyles, WR - OU

WOW - that is HIGH for Broyles coming off a knee injury. He ran some good times less than six months out from surgery but I don’t know if his value was a second rounder right now. Also seems to play about the same position as Titus Young for the Lions, but I think he should ultimately be a good one - they probably could have gotten him in the third though.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 7:41 PM CDT reply actions  

Seems to be plenty of other guys available that could make a greater impact.

Ford family might want him as a go-between with Big Red Auto.

by Saul! on Apr 27, 2025 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

#55 - ATL - Peter Konz, C - Wisconsin

Dammit - guess Dallas either didn’t want him or couldn’t get back into the second round. He’s a great C prospect - not on a Nick Mangold level, but he should be an above-average starter for a long time. Atlanta needed help on the interior so hard to argue with this one.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 7:46 PM CDT reply actions  

#56 - PIT - Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

Adding some tackle depth not a bad idea for the Steelers since Willie Colon can’t stay healthy and Marcus Gilbert is still a question mark with outright garbage behind those dudes. Adams may be more of a RT than a left but he’s strong value late in the 2nd - Steelers are reloading at the key spots.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 7:48 PM CDT reply actions  

#57 - DEN - Brock Osweiler, QB, Arizona State

Broncos roll the dice on a raw big-armed guy in Osweiler as the successor to Peyton Manning. He couldn’t ask for a better guy to learn from, although that didn’t ever seem to do Jim Sorgi all that much good.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 7:53 PM CDT reply actions  

Dan McGwire is a Bronco!

He’s got the PED hook-up too,

by Saul! on Apr 27, 2025 7:53 PM CDT reply actions  

Broncos draft a giant of a QB and....

not much more. Not mobile at all and bad tendency to overthrow.

by STLaw on Apr 27, 2025 7:53 PM CDT reply actions  

#58 - TB - Lavonte David, LB, Nebraska

Great marriage of talent and need here - David is tremendously productive and really fast for a Bucs LB corps that was just gawdawful last year.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 7:55 PM CDT reply actions  

Good pick and trade up by TB

David is solid. Great upside with insane LB speed

by STLaw on Apr 27, 2025 7:56 PM CDT reply actions  

Bo Pelini is pissed!

Someone explain that David wasn’t playing at Nebraska next year if TB didn’t select him.

by Saul! on Apr 27, 2025 7:57 PM CDT reply actions  

#59 - Vinny Curry - DE - Marshall

Dammit - Eagles get another good one. They are definitely taking a page out of the Giants’ playbook with the ‘wave of pass rushers’ approach.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 8:01 PM CDT reply actions  

#60 - BAL - Kalechi Osemele, G/T - Iowa State

Ravens love them some big bodies and they get another one to replace Ben Grubbs on the OL. Some attitude questions, but he’s big as hell and athletic and should help them do some better work in short yardage next season.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 8:04 PM CDT reply actions  

SF up next.

Thompson?

Massie?

Not sure what their team needs are.

by Saul! on Apr 27, 2025 8:07 PM CDT reply actions  

SF going the KC approach

Bruiser back and speed back tandem

by STLaw on Apr 27, 2025 8:09 PM CDT reply actions  

#61 - SF - LaMichael James, RB - Oregon

WOW - another surprise here as the 49ers possibly reach for James. He is far more explosive than anything else they have in the backfield, but he absolutely can’t hold up in blitz pickup. Should be good for 7 or 8 explosive touches a game and some return skills, but that’s pricey in the second round.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 8:10 PM CDT reply actions  

#62 - GB - Casey Heyward, CB, Vanderbilt

Good choice for Green Bay as Charles Woodson doesn’t have too much tread left on his tires. He may not have the upside of a guy like Trumaine Johnson or even Fleming from OU, but he should be solid.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 8:12 PM CDT reply actions  

NYG on the clock

Another CB perhaps?

by Saul! on Apr 27, 2025 8:15 PM CDT reply actions  

Giants take Randle

Guess they wanted another big-bodied WR besides Hicks

by STLaw on Apr 27, 2025 8:17 PM CDT reply actions  

#63 - NYG - Reuben Randle, WR - LSU

Some questions around the value for David Wilson at the end of the first round, but no such questions here as Randle is a great prospect on the outside. He’ll let them keep Cruz operating in his comfort zone in the slot and should damn near poop himself with joy catching balls from Eli Manning after trying to corral flutter balls from Jordan Jefferson.

Some classy ladies double-fisting beers in the balcony in Giants gear.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 8:18 PM CDT reply actions  

#64 - IND - Dwayne Allen, TE - Clemson

With Tamme gone and questions around how much Dallas Clark has left, Indy re-stocks its TEs for a guy who certainly liked to throw to them at Stanford. Still not much in the way of blocking, but c’est la vie.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 8:21 PM CDT reply actions  

No Mayock, I don't want to say New England Patriots.

Two TEs don’t automatically equal the production level the Pats got. BAL took two TEs the same year. Granted, they have Flacco instead of Brady as a triggerman.

by Saul! on Apr 27, 2025 8:22 PM CDT reply actions  

#65 - Trumaine Johnson, CB - Montana

I think this is good value - some obvious questions around the level of competition but he’s a big athletic guy who does a really good job disrupting routes.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 8:22 PM CDT reply actions  

Dang...Rams trying to build an arsenal of CBs?

or just drafting backup in case Jenkins gets in trouble again

by STLaw on Apr 27, 2025 8:23 PM CDT reply actions  

Good pick by the Vikings

Trying to build depth for an aging secondary

by STLaw on Apr 27, 2025 8:24 PM CDT reply actions  

Vikes take the combine CB from UCF

No doubt they came up empty in their search for Golden Domer corners.

by Saul! on Apr 27, 2025 8:24 PM CDT reply actions  

#66 - MIN - Josh Robinson, CB - Central Florida

The Vikes rolling the dice on a guy who had some character and technique concerns, but he’s a great athlete and the Vikings’ secondary was in massive disarray last season.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 8:25 PM CDT reply actions  

#67 - DEN - Ronnie Hillman, RB, San Diego St.

Should be a good receiving outlet for Manning. I’m surprised a couple of these guys came off the board with Lamar Miller and Chris Polk from Washington still on the board.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 8:26 PM CDT reply actions  

They could not live up to the check down standards of Peyton.

In pre-draft interviews they mentioned handoffs, so Manning audibled to Hillman.

by Saul! on Apr 27, 2025 8:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

Houston takes Posey

Risky move but badly needed a WR to overcome the lack thereof in Jacoby Jones

by STLaw on Apr 27, 2025 8:30 PM CDT reply actions  

#68 - HOU - DeVier Posey, WR - tOSU

Posey can occasionally burn a corner and bring you off your couch with a leaping grab - he can also actually burn your couch thanks to his experience at Ohio State.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 8:31 PM CDT reply actions  

#69 - BUF - TJ Graham, WR - NC State

I think there are some better guys they could have gone with here, including Sanu and Chris Givens.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 8:32 PM CDT reply actions  

#70 - JAX - Brian Anger, P

Um….so a punter. Yeah.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 8:34 PM CDT reply actions  

#72 - MIA - Olivier Vernon, DE - Da U

He’s probably a 3-4 OLB in Miami’s scheme - he’ll have some questions about his ability to get much done in space but should help bring some heat opposite Cameron Wake.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 8:41 PM CDT reply actions  

#73 - SD - Brandon Taylor, S - LSU

He might be the best true free safety prospect in the draft and should be a good fit next to Eric Weddle - I like what San Diego has done so far.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 8:44 PM CDT reply actions  

#74 - KC - Donald Stephenson, OT - OU

Kind of a combine warrior here as I don’t know if his play warranted going in the early third.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 8:48 PM CDT reply actions  

#75 - SEA - Russell Wilson, QB - Wisconsin

I really like Wilson - he’s far from the prototypical NFL QB but he looked tremendous all of last year and brings plus athleticism and really strong accuracy. I doubt he’s a full inch shorter than Drew Brees, so you can make it work if you keep a solid pocket in front of him.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 8:54 PM CDT reply actions  

True

Hasselbeck > Jackson > Whitehurst > Flynn > Wilson does not exactly suggest a coherent positional philosophy

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 9:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

SEA? Wilson? Really?

Pete Carroll seems to target new and different QBs all the time. Do they have a strategy there beyond a dartboard?

by Saul! on Apr 27, 2025 8:54 PM CDT reply actions  

#76 - HOU - Brandon Brooks, G - Da U of Da O

I like Brooks a lot - he’s huge and moves really well, and despite some level of competition concerns he has the look of a guy who can dominate once he adjusts. I would have loved to see him go to Dallas - he seems like more of a mauler than a zone guy but I’m not going to spend a ton of time questioning Houston’s OL choices given their success there.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 8:59 PM CDT reply actions  

#77 - NYJ - DeMario Davis, OLB - Arkansas St.

He’s fast but raw - there are more polished guys on the board, but he’s intriguing as a blitzed for the Jets.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 9:01 PM CDT reply actions  

#78 - MIA - Michael Egnew, TE - Missouri

More of a downfield threat to complement Fasano in Miami - he may actually be the best downfield thing Miami has given the destitute state of their WR corps.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 9:04 PM CDT reply actions  

Unless...

Matt Moore goes downfield to Ryan Tannehill. I hear he’s a great athlete.

by Saul! on Apr 27, 2025 9:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

#79 - CHI - Brandon Hardin, S - Oregon

He’ll bring some interesting cover skills to safety with his corner experience - the Bears could use a starter next to Craig Steltz in the back of that defense.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 9:10 PM CDT reply actions  

#80 - ARI - Jamell Fleming, CB - OU

I think he’s one of the better corner prospects in the draft - OU guys don’t have a great history in the league but he’s pretty good on an island and runs well for being a thicker guy. The Cards signed William Gay away from Pittsburgh in the offseason but could still use some depth in that secondary.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 9:12 PM CDT reply actions  

#81 - DAL - Tyrone Crawford, Boise St.

Interesting - I would have liked Ta’Amu but Crawford was probably one of the best 3-4 DE prospects on the board. Winn from Boise might be a more well-rounded overall guy but Crawford is probably the better upfield/pass rush prospect which is what they need.

I’m just resigned that they’ll never, ever move Ratliff out to DE.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 9:17 PM CDT reply actions  

Guess Boise did appeal to them.

Sorry about Ta’Amu, 60. I’m guessing he’ll be gone before they pick again.

by Saul! on Apr 27, 2025 9:17 PM CDT reply actions  

#82 - TEN - Mike Martin, DT - Michigan

The Titans need some depth on the DL and Martin is OK, but doesn’t really blow your socks off.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 9:21 PM CDT reply actions  

#83 - CIN - Mohamed Sanu, WR - Rutgers

I like this pick as a complement to AJ Green’s downfield skills - he’s not a blazer by any means but he was really productive at Rutgers and Dalton seems to have the short/intermediate accuracy to take advantage of his strong route-running.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 9:22 PM CDT reply actions  

BAL up next

Lots of CBS left, a Ronnel Lewis, a certain NT. Let’s not think about that though.

For nobis’ sake, they take an OL. Right?

by Saul! on Apr 27, 2025 9:25 PM CDT reply actions  

Oh ****

I just noticed who has the 86th pick. They don’t need a young buck to understudy for a year behind Casey at all. Look away, 60. Look away.

by Saul! on Apr 27, 2025 9:27 PM CDT reply actions  

#84 - Bernard Pierce, RB - Temple

Pierce is OK, but I’ve been surprised that the last few guys have gone off the board at RB with Polk and Lamar Miller still available. I guess you’re just looking for 6-7 carries a game with Rice in the house.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 9:27 PM CDT reply actions  

#85 - DET - Dwight Bentley, CB, ULaLa

He’s not real polished and is a pure zone guy, but he’s got some speed and athleticism that probably make him worth a dice roll late in the third.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 9:30 PM CDT reply actions  

#86 - PIT - Shawn Spence, LB - Da U

He’s really athletic and instinctive - great fit for a defense like Pittsburgh whose DL will keep him clean and let him flow to the ball.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 9:35 PM CDT reply actions  

Browns up next

Traditionally this is where they begin their second nap.

by Saul! on Apr 27, 2025 9:35 PM CDT reply actions  

#87 - CLE - John Hughes, Director - Hollywood

Really enjoyed a lot of his work in the ’80’s, which is coincidentally the last time Cleveland was relevant in the NFL.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 9:36 PM CDT reply actions  

#88 - PHI - Nick Foles, QB - Arizona

Just about a 180 from Mike Vick as Foles is pretty much a pocket guy, but he’s got a solid arm and accuracy. Hoping he doesn’t turn into much, but he’s a reasonable pick in the late third.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 9:38 PM CDT reply actions  

#89 - NO - Akiem Hicks, Regina

Good Lord - they found a guy who couldn’t make it in to LSU?? That dos not just speak real, real highly of his intelligence. Apparently he actually shat on his Wonderlic test.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 9:41 PM CDT reply actions  

#90 - NE - Jake Bequette, DE - Arkansas

Now this sounds like a guy who should have been playing at LSU - Jake Bequette. Feels like a reach.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 9:45 PM CDT reply actions  

#91 - ATL - Lamar Holmes, T - USM

He’s going to need time to develop, but he’s a pretty intriguing athlete. Sam Baker pretty much busted out at LT for Atlanta last year and Will Svitek sorta-kinda filled in well, but that job should be there for the taking should Holmes round into shape.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 9:47 PM CDT reply actions  

#92 - IND - T.Y. Hilton, WR - Florida International

He’s a burner who’s pretty raw, but adds some deep speed that the Colts lost when Garcon left town.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 9:52 PM CDT reply actions  

FIU star to wear a horseshoe.

Irsay will tweet about it.

by Saul! on Apr 27, 2025 9:52 PM CDT reply actions  

#93 - CIN - Brandon Thompson, DT - Clemson

Man, I think the Bengals have been killing it - Thompson had a near-first round grade in a lot of spots. He’s not much of a pass rusher but he can bring some really stout play against the run and should really complement Geno Atkins’ ability to get upfield.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 9:54 PM CDT reply actions  

#94 - NYG - Jayron Hosley, CB - VaTech

I always like defenders out of VaTech. Hosley has good speed and could help account for the loss of Aaron Ross and the fact that Terrell Thomas is uncertain coming back from injury.

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 9:58 PM CDT reply actions  

#95 - OAK - Tony Bergstrom, G - Utah

Bergstrom could develop into a solid guard unless he takes a mission trip to try and convert the denizens of the Black Hole and fails to emerge.

I am officially out of juice for tonight - I’m doing this gig on cbssports.com tomorrow so I’m gonna crash out and recharge for the morning. It was fun, guys!

by nobis60 on Apr 27, 2025 10:01 PM CDT reply actions  


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