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2012 Hater's Ball NBA Mock Draft

Welcome to the 2012 Hater's Ball NBA Mock Draft. Tjarks and I exchanged mock draft picks and haterade jabs about guys that were ridiculously successful in college, have yet to play a minute in the NBA, and could generally squash us like infinitesimal bugs. But our motto is: "don't hate the player, hate the game." Whatever that means. By the way, these picks are who we would take, not trying to project who we think the teams will take.

JC: Let's get it started--I'll take the easy first overall pick. Other than his hirsute grooming decisions, I'd love to see what you have to say about...

1. New Orleans Hornets - Anthony Davis, Kentucky Wildcats

JT: He's being hyped like he's the next Tim Duncan, but where is his offensive game? He was the 4rth or 5th option on Kentucky and he got most of his points on alley-oops, offensive boards and hustle plays. He may still develop into a featured player offensively, but it's more of a gamble than people are acting.

2. Charlotte Bobcats - Andre Drummond, Connecticut Huskies

JC: I love how you ding me on the hyper-efficient Davis (O-Rtg of 133.5 was third best in CBB), then select DeAndre Jordan 2.0. Yeah, Drummond is a plus rebounder and shotblocker, and he also can't throw it into an ocean outside of three feet. By the way, Texas fans pulling their hair out about Tristan Thompson's free throw shooting will laugh heartily at Drummond's mind-boggling 29.5% (26 for 88). Ideally, Drummond needs to be drafted-and-stashed by a team that doesn't need him right away--think Andrew Bynum. He wouldn't get that opportunity in Charlotte.

Star-divide

3. Washington Wizards - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky Wildcats

JT: It's not going to matter how athletic a John Wall/MKG tandem would be if neither player can throw a rock into an ocean. Kidd-Gilchrist shot 25% from the college 3 and Wall shot 7% (not a typo) from the NBA 3 last year. That's a recipe for teams to pack the paint in the half-court. You can't survive at that level with two perimeter players who can't shoot unless they're named LeBron and Wade.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers - Bradley Beal, Florida Gators

JC: Speaking of poor 3-point shooting percentages, for a guy purported to be the next Ray Allen, Beal shot just 33.9% from deep. He kept chunking it, too--nearly half his field goal attempts were from distance. Yeah, playing with Kyrie Irving instead of black hole gunners Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton will help, but I have my questions about whether Beal can score effectively enough to be as good as Eric Gordon, let alone Allen.

5. Sacramento Kings - Thomas Robinson, Kansas Jayhawks

JT: Robinson can look like Blake Griffin against teams like Missouri that has no one above 6'8", but Robinson struggled to create his own shot against an NBA-caliber front-line like Kentucky's. He's a fairly raw power forward who won't be able to consistently create his own shot, make plays for others and block shots at the next level. Seriously though, how does someone w/his athleticism average less than a block a game?

6. Portland Trail Blazers - Perry Jones III, Baylor Bears

JC: I knew you would snag the potential of PJ3 before me; I'm not sure I'd touch him anywhere in the lottery. I just didn't know you would draft him this early, but I guess it's fitting to give him to the franchise that drafted Greg Oden over Kevin Durant. When ESPN puts up those player capsules during the draft, Jones' would read: "Needs Improvement: Heart, Motor, Want To." He's going to get some GM fired. I guess it would make sense that the Clippers' stench would follow new Portland GM Neil Olshey.

7. Golden State Warriors - Dion Waiters, Syracuse Orange

JT: If I'm Rick Barnes, PJ3 and Quincy Miller are exhibits 1A and 1B in why you can't trust your professional future to Scott Drew. Some very well-deserved negative recruiting right there. The question about Waiters is what position he plays, as he doesn't have ideal physical stats for either the 1 or the 2 at 6'4", 220 lbs. He was a 6th man at Syracuse and that could be his best role in the NBA, which wouldn't be a great outcome for the No. 7 pick.

8. Toronto Raptors - Jeremy Lamb, Connecticut Huskies

JC: If you're talking terrible coaching, Jim Calhoun's mail-in job last year with two lottery picks has to rank near the top. With UConn facing a postseason ban next year, you wonder if he's done. Hey, great choice, DeAndre Daniels! Lamb is basically living off one spectacular month in two years of uninspiring college basketball. Yeah, his condor wingspan (6'11") would look great in Jurassic Park, but will it matter in the NBA? Lamb strikes me as the kind of player that will average 16 PPG, yet bounce around on a few different lottery-bound teams. And Toronto already has one of those in DeMar DeRozan.

9. Detroit Pistons - John Henson, North Carolina Tar Heels

JT: The history of super-long athletic big men with no real defined position (Brandan Wright, Anthony Randolph) isn't great in the NBA. Henson better be able to knock down jumpers because he's not going to be big or strong enough to score in the paint. This is not exactly a guy built for core strength.

10. New Orleans Hornets - Terrence Jones, Kentucky Wildcats

JC: I was beginning to wonder if you would leave me to take all my Kentucky guys. As much as I love Terrence Jones for all the little things he does that goes beyond the box score, he was never an alpha dog for the Cats. Putting him on a team with Davis and Eric Gordon looks like a team with three Scottie Pippen's and no MJ. Is that really a recipe for long-term success? This is a critical pick for NOLA. It needs to be more Russell Westbrook and less Jeff Green. I'm not convinced Jones is the right answer.

11. Portland Trail Blazers - Tony Wroten, Washington Huskies

JT: As much as I love James Harden, I think Gordon (if he can stay healthy) is the best young 2 in the NBA. I do agree that No. 10 is the pivotal pick for NO if they're going to become a long-term threat to the Thunder. No way I'd take Wroten over Terrence Ross, his teammate at Washington. I lost a lot of money this season watching Wroten do his Tyreke Evans impression (unathletic, poor shooting ball hog) and turning the rest of his super-talented team into spectators.

12. Milwaukee Bucks - Meyers Leonard, Illinois Fighting Illini

JC: What's the historical success rate for white centers drafted after single digits? Like, negative thirty-seven percent? Taking a collegiate 5 this late in the lottery is generally a recipe for disaster--Roy Hibbert is the only one in recent memory I can recall to satisfy his original team. But I guess Leonard is a perfect fit to take over the scapegoat role from Andrew Bogut in the eyes of the Milwaukee faithful.

13. Phoenix Suns - Quincy Miller, Baylor Bears

JT: Considering that you, me and John Hollinger are seemingly the only people out there who think Miller is worthy of a lottery pick, I can't bring myself to hate on him. How long can we punish someone for letting Scott Drew into their life? Also, where does Steve Nash go this off-season? I wonder if he stays in Phoenix, not out of loyalty but because the Suns are the only training staff that can keep him healthy.

14. Houston Rockets - Terrence Ross, Washington Huskies

JC: If I'm Nash, I'm taking the league minimum in Miami and gunning for that ring. I really want my Rockets to draft Q. We've both argued ad infinitum that Morey needs to land a superstar. I'm guessing (actually, I know) you don't think Harrison Barnes is that star, but at 14, he would be the house bet.

15. Philadelphia 76ers - Harrison Barnes, North Carolina Tar Heels

JT: Yea, I don't need to do a bit to hate on Barnes. He's Jordan Hamilton, which is fine, but he's not going to be a star.

16. Houston Rockets - Royce White, Iowa St. Cyclones

JC: Ooh, that's dirty--White was going to be my pick at 17. Instead, I'll serve up a softball for your Mavericks. On White, he put on a clinic last year, but he was hardly being discussed as a first round pick until his stellar tournament performance against Kentucky. Character issues would be my other qualm--traditionally, Houston has been a city that prides itself on being on the straight and narrow when it comes to its sports franchises. But like your take on Miller, I can't muster much hate here.

17. Dallas Mavericks - Kendall Marshall, North Carolina Tar Heels

JT: Willie Funk wrote up a pretty convincing article over at SB Nation Dallas about why Marshall to Dallas would be a terrible idea. This feels like a pretty natural end-point to me. We've hit most of the area teams and the talent pool is starting to get a little shallow in the mock.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves - Festus Ezeli, Vanderbilt Commodores

JC: Sounds good--speed round time. And I actually like the back nine of the first round this year. I think the playoff teams can get some immediate contributors. Oh, I also couldn't bring myself to watch game five. Happy for LeBron, though.

19. Orlando Magic - Jared Sullinger, Ohio St. Buckeyes

JT: The only way to beat Bosh at the 5 and LeBron at the 4 is to play a line-up that gets them off the floor.

20. Denver Nuggets - Will Barton, Memphis Tigers

JC: Wouldn't be surprised if Barton is a better pro than Barnes.

21. Boston Celtics - Austin Rivers, Duke Blue Devils

JT: I'd be surprised if he wasn't.

22. Boston Celtics - Arnett Moultrie, Mississippi St. Bulldogs

JC: Younger brother better than older brother?

23. Atlanta Hawks - Marquis Teague, Kentucky Wildcats

JT: I am a big fan of the bloodlines, but I'm not sure about this one. Hard to evaluate him due to the fairly unique situation he was in. Next up: I'm surprised he fell this far.

24. Cleveland Cavaliers - Tyler Zeller, North Carolina Tar Heels

JC: Zeller has the lowest floor-to-ceiling gap of any prospect in this draft, in my opinion, which made him un-sexy in our mock draft. We've also totally ignored Damian Lillard.

25. Memphis Grizzlies - Doron Lamb, Kentucky Wildcats

JT: Lillard is definitely a mid-first round pick; I don't think he's a good enough playmaker to be worth taken in the lottery, though.

26. Indiana Pacers - Damian Lillard, Weber St. Wildcats

JC: If you're the Heat, you gotta take a flyer on either a center or a dead-eye shooter, right?

27. Miami Heat - Fabricio Melo, Syracuse Orange

JT: Definitely. I think the guy they want is Ezeli, who I took higher than most of the other mock drafts out there. That's a perfect fit of team and player.

28. Oklahoma City Thunder - Jeffery Taylor, Vanderbilt Commodores

JC: Last pick for me--my favorite non-Texas, non-UK player of the last couple of years.

29. Chicago Bulls - Draymond Green, Michigan St. Spartans

JT: I just don't see how he's going to be able to defend anyone at the next level. He'd be a great European player though. Overall, a really strong draft. Aside from Kyrie Irving, Jonas Valanciunas and Enes Kanter, I think the bottom 10 of this first round is as good as the top 10 from last year. One player we wouldn't get to if we did the top 45 picks is J'Covan Brown. What was he thinking?

30. Golden State Warriors - Moe Harkless, St. John's Red Storm

JC: Green put in the work to be a collegiate All-American. I think he can carve out a niche as a tweener forward that will have good Reb/40 & Ast/40 rates. As for J'Covan, did the dude even graduate? In any case, he wasn't getting major PG minutes next year, and he wasn't going to improve his body stature. Why not take the extra year of income, even if it's in Europe? Overall, a fun draft and a lot of solid picks to be had beyond Davis. I'm excited for Thursday.

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Comments

Display:

Thomas Robinson
Seriously though, how does someone w/his athleticism average less than a block a game?

I’m glad he didn’t. Those are just fouls waiting to happen. He’s big enough to just muscle people out of the paint. And if someone did get near the rim, Jeff Withey was there to handle it. Robinson could have averaged 2 blocks/game but his fouls would have jumped up quite a bit too.

www.oreadboomkings.fantake.com

by Triston27 on Jun 25, 2025 9:37 AM CDT reply actions  

Dont Be Surprised

If Harrison Barnes goes in the top 5.

Change isn't good or bad it just "is". Don Draper of Madmen

by realmccoy on Jun 25, 2025 11:13 AM CDT reply actions  

don't be surprised

if he’s never very good.

by Nickel Rover on Jun 26, 2025 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

Barnes knock is familiar

to Rudy Gay when he came out. Seems like he has all the tools but lacks the drive sometimes.

by mdhorn on Jun 25, 2025 11:54 AM CDT reply actions  

Kidd-Gilchrist

is the guy I think teams should go after if you have a good guard and center or power forward. I definitely think he can contribute at the next level.

Anthony Davis has some mobility for a big man but nowhere close to having a developed all around game. I think he’s better than Stromile Swift and can probably give Blake Griffen a run for dunking hilights.

Any real cornerstones in this draft?

by mdhorn on Jun 25, 2025 12:14 PM CDT reply actions  

love him

Guys plays like a beast. Not many guys in the lottery have his motor. He is fearless going to the hoop. His athleticism is off the charts. He should excel as a defender and will be a plus rebounder at the SF position. He will play in the NBA for a long time. His jump shot will determine at what level.

by codaxx on Jun 25, 2025 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

Cornerstones

Davis: No joke when they say his ceiling is Duncan or KG. That’s a cornerstone player. Would be an upset if he’s not.

MKG’s max is probably Scottie Pippen, which is one rung short of true cornerstone.

Drummond is probably the third bet, but his potential-production gap is a canyon wide.

There’s a lot of options that could turn into a later-round Rondo/Arenas type…more so than typical drafts, in my opinion. But it’s not wise to bet on that happening.

by jc25 on Jun 25, 2025 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

Pippen

I am confused. You are saying his upside is a he can be a guy that made the all -NBA 50 team. He was voted on the 50 best NBA player of All-time. Not sure what is your criteria for “corner-stone” player. If it Bird, Jordan, Magic, and LeBron than good luck

by codaxx on Jun 25, 2025 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

semantics, I guess

I was thinking more of an alpha dog that you build championship-winning teams around. Top 50 or not, Pippen suffers from the stigma of being banana number two.

by jc25 on Jun 26, 2025 8:48 AM CDT up reply actions  

what makes someone

a “2nd banana”? Garnett has been accused of it, if you leave him out of your top 25 of all time you’re insane.
The “alpha dog” stuff is wildly overrated and most make-believe. For one, these guys were all the top dogs at some level. For another, there have been plenty of guys who were looked to as leaders who were nowhere near the level of someone like Scottie Pippen. Finally, it’s a distinction often crowned by things the player has little control over, like rings.

by Nickel Rover on Jun 26, 2025 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

Cant Go Crazy on a 29% FT shooter

Change isn't good or bad it just "is". Don Draper of Madmen

by realmccoy on Jun 25, 2025 7:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

I will be really supprised if Drummond develops into a quality offensive player

He will have to make his money rebounding and blocking shots. I don’t want to be too harsh, but his offensive upside is probably Michael Olowokandi. And I mean upside, as in he will really have to work hard on his offensive game to get that good.

I am on Twitter @jeffchaley
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by Reggieball on Jun 26, 2025 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

Drummond

doesn’t look good to me. i’m more interested in what Giorgiu Dieng at Louisville become in another year or so. He’s really unpolished now but I’d take him over Drummond tomorrow.

Drummond and Melo seem like the guy that floats around the league for years because they look good and are huge. Maybe one of them has everything click at some point like you are seeing now with DeAndre Jordan or with Bynum a few years ago. Maybe the other becomes Kwame Brown. Or they both suck.

In a big guy I would look at ability to stay healthy and passion for the game. Like Scipio’s theory about OL. Do they love bball or do they just realize they should be playing it?

by Nickel Rover on Jun 26, 2025 11:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

I dont see too many possible future all stars in this class.

Deep class of quality role players, just no stars. Possibly Davis just because there is always a lack of quality centers and perhaps Gilchrist if he falls in the right situation and has an Iguodala type impact. I wouldnt touch Andre Drummond, looks like another Kwame Brown if you ask me.

by LongandHorny on Jun 25, 2025 12:35 PM CDT reply actions  

Davis

So raw. It was not long ago he was playing PG in High School. He should be able to develop a nice 10-15 game. Top shot blocker very early in his career. Already one of the better ball handlers at his size. I do wonder if he will ever fill out enough to be a dominate post presence. It is stupid to say because he is the #1 pick, but he really could have used another yr in college to bulk up and work on his low post game

by codaxx on Jun 25, 2025 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

"Wall shot .07% (not a typo)"

Typo or not, Wall shot 7.1% from 3, not .07%.

by DiegoKokomo on Jun 25, 2025 12:37 PM CDT reply actions  

Lol. Great call on my part taking the time to write out not a typo for something that is obviously a typo.

by tjarks on Jun 25, 2025 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sorry, I don’t normally check statistics like that…I just thought I could probably do better than .07% from the NBA line (although it’d be close).

by DiegoKokomo on Jun 25, 2025 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

Ha

And fool us twice…shame on me for not catching the typo during my edit.

by jc25 on Jun 26, 2025 8:48 AM CDT up reply actions  

Terrance Ross

Would be a prototype NBA 2, if he were 2-3" taller.

Guys like that seem to be a bit of a toss-up…

"If God dwells inside us like some people say, I sure hope He likes enchiladas, because that's what He's getting."

by RedmondLonghorn on Jun 25, 2025 2:12 PM CDT reply actions  

I’m a huge T. Ross fan. I’m convinced Wroten cost him 5-10 spots in the draft w/his ball-stopping antics this year.

by tjarks on Jun 25, 2025 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

T Jones

I think you are under-estimating Jones as a scorer. He had 8 games over 20 pts as a freshman. He kind of wore out as the season progressed and Knight decided to pass less. He is an unselfish player with a lot of talent. He only surpassed 15 shots once his sophomore yr. Averaged 9 shots a game. Fact is there was just so much talent on that team. He is a power forward that shot 33% from 3. I would not worry about his ability, I would worry about this drive. Like many 1st round kids, he has had the habit of going into cruise control.

by codaxx on Jun 25, 2025 3:27 PM CDT reply actions  

Respectfully disagree on Tyler Zeller

He’s 7 feet tall and he runs incredibly well. Averaged 16-10 playing 28 minutes a game and hits 80% of his free throws. He has a developing face-up game and a nice little hook shot. Acquiring him in the 20s is straight up theft. What am I missing?

by Scipio Tex on Jun 25, 2025 6:22 PM CDT reply actions  

On Zeller

I don’t disagree. I think Zeller will be a very good NBA player. I just don’t think he’ll be a star. To me, his deviation looks like top tier backup center to solid starter. And when you’re talking about teams drafting in the teens—trying to get off the “mediocrity treadmill”—Tjarks and I just happened to think their lottery tickets were best cashed elsewhere.

by jc25 on Jun 26, 2025 9:22 AM CDT up reply actions  

It depends on the draft

but I think most people drafting after #5 realize they’re not getting a star. I know this class is deep though. Thanks for the explanation.

by Scipio Tex on Jun 26, 2025 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions  

I really like Zeller...

but I wonder how his game translates to the NBA. Clearly he can contribute; he plays hard and is 7 feet tall. But the thing that sets him apart is his speed. He is the ultimate Roy Williams center — the guy who hauls ass and beats everyone down the court. Does this skill really help in the NBA?

I feel the same way about Kendall Marshall, even stronger actually. It is like he was put on the earth to run Roy Williams’ flying circus. But in the NBA, no one is really throwing 40 foot passes up the court, which seems to me to be the thing Marshall is really good at. I am not crazy about his defense and I don’t love his shot. I don’t know how much his high turnover rates resulted from throwing those 40 foot passes, and how much they came from being careless. He is 6-4 and a good athlete, but the skill set he displayed in college doesn’t really seem to me to fit the NBA. I think he will disappoint.

I am on Twitter @jeffchaley
Burnt Orange Nation
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by Reggieball on Jun 26, 2025 6:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

MKG's three point shooting percentage is based on a really small sample

He was 13 of 51 from three. 17 of 51 would have been 33%. He also hit 37% of his two point jump shots (41 out of 111), which is a pretty decent percentage. He s a 75% free throw shooter as well.

He isn’t a sharp shooter, but I think he has a decent chance of being an average shooter for a wing.

I am on Twitter @jeffchaley
Burnt Orange Nation
Hoop-Math

by Reggieball on Jun 25, 2025 8:41 PM CDT reply actions  

Agree

Another thing on MKG — he wasn’t ever really asked to be a spot-up shooter at Kentucky. Just going solely by memory, his distance attempts were more of his own creation, as opposed to guys like Lamb or Miller, who would camp on the perimeter for catch-and-shoots.

by jc25 on Jun 26, 2025 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

Looking at the % assisted

Here is the link for Kentucky.

From three point range, 99% of Lamb’s made threes were assisted. 92% of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist’s made threes were assisted. 84% of Miller’s made threes were assisted.

A couple other comments:

1) Miller shot the hell out of the ball. He hit 38% of his three point jump shots and 48% of his two point jump shots. Also, only 17% of his made two point jump shots were assisted. I had to look around a bit to find a player with such a high 2 point jump shot shooting percentage, and such a low assist rate on those shots. Aaron Craft seems to be a match, with a 47% two point jump shooting FG%, and only 13% off of assists. These are really good shooting numbers. Just as a point of comparison to a guy who can really shoot, Kim English also made 48% of his two point jump shots, but 78% of the made shots were assisted.

2) About half of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist’s field goal attempts came at the rim, and he made 66% of them. I would have to work harder to figure out how many came in transition vs. half-court, but those numbers are closer to what we typically see from big guys — they are about the same as Terrance Jones’ numbers at the rim.

I am on Twitter @jeffchaley
Burnt Orange Nation
Hoop-Math

by Reggieball on Jun 26, 2025 5:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

just want you to know

I’m reading all these comments with great interest, thanks for writing them

by Nickel Rover on Jun 26, 2025 10:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

Thanks, Jeff

Great stats.

It’s truly hard to appreciate Darius Miller unless you watched him mature from the clusterf*cking Billy Gillispie gave him his freshman year to his starting spot sacrifice his senior year. I’d be willing to bet that Miller made a higher percentage of his long-2 attempts than anyone else in CBB—he was a master at stepping inside the arc off a smaller defender and knocking down the jumper. Unfortunately, Miller likely doesn’t have the foot speed to play the 2 in the pros, so he’ll have tougher sledding as a 3 in the NBA.

I’m not surprised by MKG’s %—I’m sure he was a better shooter on catch-and-shoot 3’s than created 3’s. I also wouldn’t be surprised if a good portion of his misses were off his own creation. My guess is MKG’s transition buckets would be average or below. He was really good at slashing to the rim for offensive rebound putbacks or easy assist buckets.

by jc25 on Jun 27, 2025 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions  

MKG

had some big flaws in his mechanics on deep jump shots. Doesn’t square himself to the basket, awkward release point, elbow flies out. Not a great catch and shoot guy.
Likely it can all be corrected.
You think his transition shooting percentage was poor? I wouldn’t have guessed that from the Kentucky games I saw. Looks to me like a fantastic finisher in the open court.

by Nickel Rover on Jun 27, 2025 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

Transition buckets

I meant his % of transition buckets to total finishes at the rim. I don’t think he ran any more than the average player, and in fact may have gotten a higher percentage of at the rim buckets because he was such an explosive athlete to the rim in the halfcourt game.

by jc25 on Jun 27, 2025 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

The reason why this might matter, and why I mentioned it.

It is much easier to finish at the rim in transition, than in the half court game. Average shooting percentage at the rim is higher in transition than it is in half court sets. This is kind of obvious, really.

Why I mentioned the transition bit — if a player was getting a higher percentage of his shots at the rim in transition than normal, this would raise his FG% at the rim. It might lead to erroneous conclusions about his ability as a finisher.

I have never tried to look at these data for individual players. I could, it would take me about an hour or two to write the code to do it. I may get to it someday, but it is lower on my priority list. Sample sizes are going to be pretty small, too, so I don’t know how useful it would be.

I am on Twitter @jeffchaley
Burnt Orange Nation
Hoop-Math

by Reggieball on Jun 27, 2025 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

Of course, this doesn't mean that player wouldn't deserve "credit" for those shots

Scoring in transition is its own skill.

I am on Twitter @jeffchaley
Burnt Orange Nation
Hoop-Math

by Reggieball on Jun 27, 2025 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

Anthony Davis

will be the next Thurl Bailey,

and Harrison Barnes is the next Detlef Schrempf.

by Harry Garcia on Jun 26, 2025 12:49 AM CDT reply actions  

Anthony Davis

seems like a sure thing to me, or as close as you generally get. The drive has been there so far, he has a good shooting stroke, he’s been healthy, he has exceptional athleticism, knows how to play team defense, knows how to get easy buckets…
He’ll be at the olympics also, so he can learn from the ones that made it before. I’m not too worried about his thin frame. Kareem, KG, and Durant are skinny as well. He’ll want to be stronger than the latter player but he could become quite strong and still not look like it because he’s so long.

The one thing I’d like to see him develop that guys like Duncan, Kareem, Shaw, and KG have are a signature post move. One move that demands a double team or cheating defense to set everything else up. From what I’ve seen I would guess it would be a face-up jumper. He’s kind of like Connor Atchley in that he had a late growth spurt so he has some little man skills like the jumper.
He’s not as much like Atchley in just about every other respect though.

by Nickel Rover on Jun 26, 2025 1:17 PM CDT reply actions  

nice write-up

I would agree with Davis’ post play comments. He has a nice baby hook, but other than that, didn’t get much in the way of post move points at UK. Towards the end of the year, I would argue he got a little too comfortable on the perimeter—but that was because Kentucky was so comfortable running a 4/1 or 5-wide motion offense and then just crashing the boards for misses or playing the alley-oop game.

by jc25 on Jun 26, 2025 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

yeah agreed

The nature of the Kentucky offense wasn’t geared towards training and deploying him in the low post.
I wouldn’t be remotely worried about his lack of a post-up game if I were drafting him. For one, he has shown some offensive skill and has tons of time to develop one. For another, if he’s never a dominant low-post offensive player he can still dominate basketball games like he did at Kentucky.

by Nickel Rover on Jun 26, 2025 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

Agree

I also think that for the most part, the post game seems to be something guys mostly pick up in the pros. There aren’t too many polished low post players in college. I am not sure why this is, other than it doesn’t really have as much of a place in the modern drive-and-kick, take 1/3 of your shots from three, college game. Also, any big guy with reasonable talent tends to not stick around in college for very long anyway, and have less of a chance to develop a back to the basket game that will work against guys their size. I wonder how many of these 6-8 to 6-10 guys were just drop stepping and dunking on everyone in high school? That stuff doesn’t fly when the guy guarding you is just as big.

I am on Twitter @jeffchaley
Burnt Orange Nation
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by Reggieball on Jun 26, 2025 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

yeah definitely

I would be looking for bigs who do the things that can happen in college well, like defense, defensive and offensive rebounding, easy baskets, and then some foundational skills, like a face-up.
Most of the great offensive guys like McHale started everything with the fact that you couldn’t allow them to shoot with space or they would knock it down all day.

by Nickel Rover on Jun 26, 2025 11:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

My take on Anthony Davis' future

I am not particularly good at predicting how things will turn out in the NBA, but it doesn’t stop me from trying. (At least I got Ty Lawson right.)

Assuming Davis stays healthy, out of trouble, etc., I think it is pretty reasonable to project the following range of outcomes for him.

If he never develops much of an offensive game, he can be at a minimum be a really important defensive center. Maybe a Tyson Chandler level player, who is a top defender and who can finish at the rim. Or perhaps not quite this good, but he will still be a very good player.

If he develops more of an offensive game, I don’t really know, what sort of game will it look like? There aren’t a ton of guys with his size, agility, and athletic ability that have come through the league. If he really develops as a shooter/passer/ballhandler, I guess he could get to a KG type of game. But I don’t think this is very likely; it is hard to imagine a championship contending team letting him bring the ball up the court and run the offense when the starting point guard sits down the way KG did in his Minnesota prime. (Yes, the T-Wolves were championship contenders for a year or two.)

Perhaps his career could resemble David Robinson’s. (This is a real upside case.) If you recall, Robinson relied on his athletic ability for his first few years in the league as his game was developing; there just weren’t many guys his size who could run with him up and down the court. But as he aged, Robinson rounded out his offensive game. Also similar, Robinson was a guy who didn’t start growing until his senior year in high school. Robinson continued to grow while at the Naval Academy.

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by Reggieball on Jun 26, 2025 6:38 PM CDT reply actions  

Sound about right

I like the KG comparison. I think he is already a plus shooter at the center spot. I would not be surprised to see him develop a nice mid-range game. I can see him being excellent defender and solid rebounder. It may take a little weight room time to become a 10 board plus guy. I think at worst you have a 10 yr contributor. Hard to see the path where he complete fails, barring injury

by codaxx on Jun 26, 2025 6:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

I wonder also

about his strength and rebounding in the NBA. Part of his prowess there is his quickness and length, so I think that would be consistent. You see KD pull down 10 boards all the time when he plays near the rim so long as he isn’t guarded by a really good, powerful defensive rebounder like James.

If he wants to dominate like in college he needs to get stronger, I would guess that he’d still be good though.

by Nickel Rover on Jun 26, 2025 11:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

how about this comp:

you talk about a guy who got by early on footwork and athleticism and developed the post game later…Hakeem Olajuwon. The dream shake of the 90’s that everyone thinks of with Olajuwon wasn’t there in the 80’s when he hit the league. I think Anthony Davis has a similar skill set in his tremendous quickness and range around the basket.

Defensively I think the Tyson Chandler comp is good if he never becomes “the dream” offensively. Personally I consider Chandler one of the 10 best players in the game. Although in addition to dominating on defense, Chandler is actually sneaky good on offense for being a good pick’n’roll guy, finisher, and offensive rebounder.

Maybe Marcus Camby is a better comp for his ceiling minus a post-game. Still a guy you take with the no. 1 pick without a second’s thought.

by Nickel Rover on Jun 26, 2025 11:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

I thought about Olajuwon..

I put Olajuwon in a totally different category.

Olajuwon didn’t develop that post game for a number of years. But I don’t know that there are many guys, no matter how hard they work, who can develop the game that Olajuwon had.

I tend to break down athletic ability into a few different areas. There is the stuff we always thing about, like speed, agility, jumping, strength, etc. Olajuwon had all of these. But then there is also something else — I don’t know quite what to call it — body control/muscle memory/fluidity or something like that. The ability to train yourself to do the things he could do with the ball. Olajuwon has this like few other guys his size. That is why guys can go and work with him on their post game and get better, but they can never become Hakeem.

So I kind of view Olajuwon like he is from another planet, possessed of physical gifts that humans don’t have. It is part of what made him so great. Even though Robinson was thought to be the better athlete (both were/are fantastic athletes), he didn’t have this one thing.

Up the thread, you mentioned McHale, also a supurb athlete, with out of this world body control. Some of what these guys had is just something you cannot learn. At least that is my belief. McHale and Olajuwon are two of the best low post guys in NBA history. I suspect that Davis can fall far short of developing their post game and still be a major force in the league.

(Random low post thought: I sort of have a weird thing for Jack Sikma. Love the reverse pivot. It is a good move. I have seen Thomas Robinson use it some, although he isn’t as good with it as Sikma was.)

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by Reggieball on Jun 27, 2025 5:43 AM CDT up reply actions  

Hakeem

Footwork was also unreal with The Dream. He often credits his upbringing in soccer (err…futbol) to helping him develop as a basketball player. Davis’ ace is his upbringing as a guard—he’s coming into the NBA with better handles and a jump shot than 99% of the bigs in recent draft classes.

by jc25 on Jun 27, 2025 9:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

like JC says below

I’m suspicious that some of Anthony Davis’ out of this world skills include the same kind of body control that Hakeem had. Take a look at some of his moves to the basket from the high post, he still looks like a guard with go go gadget arms at times.

by Nickel Rover on Jun 27, 2025 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions  


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